On predicting in flight collisions

[Flightrite]

Plane drivers get checked on a semi regular basis, albeit most times poorly therefore slipping thru the safety net and I’m of the belief past 60 years of age car drivers should also be checked, annually. I’m well past 60 and would be happy to be checked for automobile activities as I am with my plane driving. The amount of crazy car drivers out there these days is insane! Plenty of crazy plane drivers also fly amongst us, see it too often!

[skippydiesel]

50 minutes ago, Flightrite said:

Plane drivers get checked on a semi regular basis, albeit most times poorly therefore slipping thru the safety net and I’m of the belief past 60 years of age car drivers should also be checked, annually. I’m well past 60 and would be happy to be checked for automobile activities as I am with my plane driving. The amount of crazy car drivers out there these days is insane! Plenty of crazy plane drivers also fly amongst us, see it too often!

Why limit regular testing to above a certain age - go to any parking area, and you will see just how many people can't even reverse park - they are not all over 60.

[Garfly]

 

 

"All the world is queer save thee and me, and even thou art a little queer."  Robert Owen (1771 -1858)   

 

;- )

 

[Ian]

14 hours ago, skippydiesel said:

From my perspective it is ageism. Why? because I am an advocate of periodic (every 5 years?) driver review/test for ALL including so called professionals, like the police (who I often see demonstrating poor driving attitude).

 

If all were tested on a regular basis, then those with health issues (affecting driving from any cause) AND POOR DRIVING SKILLS/KNOWLEDGE ,etc would lose their licence. This, appropriate policing, logical & consistent laws/signs would bring about cultural change and dramatical reduce vehicle accidents.

Testing for bowel cancer isn't done for all ages because it is better targeted at specific age groups. There's a cost borne by both the individual and public when testing and it's better to do this in a targetted manner.

Similarly testing the skills competency of people is best done to address the actual risks. I don't object to testing every 5 years however 5 years is far too long for older people. People often have a significant cognitive decline over a single year.

I was following an elderly driver the other day who was driving at 40km/h on an 80km/h road. When navigating a roundabout he pulled out in front of another car. Clearly he shouldn't have been in control of a vehicle that can kill people.

I agree that getting old is bad and that many older people are both mentally and physically capable, however we do need systems which address the risks associated with ageing.

 

That being said there are some drugs which may slow the process, rapamycin, D+Q etc.

[skippydiesel]

".....when testing and it's better to do this in a targetted manner."

 

Testing for a disease/syndrome,  that tends to effects a certain cohort, is nothing like testing for the maintenance of a skill & knowledge base. 

 

"Similarly testing the skills competency of people is best done to address the actual risks. I don't object to testing every 5 years however 5 years is far too long for older people. People often have a significant cognitive decline over a single year."

 

5 years was nominal  - every two years would be better .

 

I do not disagree with the concerns over geriatric drivers - I just don't see that they deserve to be targeted, any more than every other crap driver on the road, irrespective of age.

[onetrack]

There's no argument that both ends of the age spectrum show statistics that indicate an increased level of crashes by both groups. 

In the young people, the reasons are impulsiveness, risk-taking, lack of experience, and inadequate control skills (related to the foregoing).

 

In older drivers, the reasons are age-related cognitive decline, slower reflexes, age-related health conditions, and (the very worst part) - a substantial long-term decline in driving skills, caused by bad driving habits that are not addressed. Things such as driving through stop signs on a regular basis, rather than stopping, and looking as required.

Failure to keep up a consistent level of alertness, as in looking for vehicles, in a regular pattern, when pulling out into conflicting traffic.

How many of you have had an aged driver pull out directly in front of you, without looking, or with a casual glance that does not register your vehicle is there? I get it regularly, but I make allowance for older drivers.

 

Then I get someone in their 40's or 50's who does the exact same thing! - showing a decline in driving skills and habits, that is already creeping in, and not being addressed.

I nearly cleaned up a medical professional in his 50's in his big new Mercedes on Thursday, when he pulled out straight in front of me, without even a glance in my direction!

He made things even worse by pulling into my lane, without indicating or looking (because the kerbside lane was full of parked cars) - leaving me nowhere to go, but up onto the centre median strip under extremely heavy braking!

 

Yes, I should've been going slower, and allowing for him doing something stupid - but he sprang straight out of the side street, on my left, from in front of a truck turning left, so I couldn't see him until it was far too late.

This decline in keeping up strict driving habits starts after about 15 or 20 years of driving, and continues to get worse, unless it's addressed with corrective instruction, and effort on the part of the driver.

We've all seen how taxi-drivers skills decline through bad habits, and long years behind the wheel, and you don't have to have aged taxi drivers, to encounter it. 

[skippydiesel]

Onetrack,

 

The hypothesis, inherent in your statement, is;

(I have simplified to make a point)

• There are bad drivers at both ends of the age range.
• The young driver exhibits a lack of experince, combined with bravado, which makes him/her a bad driver.
• The old driver lacks cognitive awareness which makes him/her abad driver.

 

I do not agree - My theory is we start with very poor driver training/testing, this is compounded by poorly targeted policing & failure to retest (bring the driver up to standard) on a regular basis. In short Australian drivers (of all ages) exhibit a very low level of driving cultural awareness and are downright awful. This is further exacerbated by the political focus on SPEED as the primary cause/control of accidents,

 

Focusing on speed, almost to the exclusion of all other factors, is a bit like focusing on a skydivers descent safety, while ignoring the packing & condition of his parachute. (please don't take this analogy too literally)

[facthunter]

Quite a few people are NEVER GOOD drivers and some have the wrong temperament.  Take more care and drive like you are being tested al the time.  Nev

[Flightrite]

I spent 10 years in the EMS field some years ago and SPEED is a huge factor in the outcome of stupid drivers! Apart from booze/drugs graveyards are full of idiots who were speeding! I for one wish there was a speed camera on every corner to take in the $$$ and hurt the hip pockets of the stupid out there! You see how you handle watching a mother in utter distress as she finds out her son is brain dead from speeding and driving in a reckless manor, trust me you don’t ever wanna see/hear that!

[skippydiesel]

Hi Flightrite,

 

With  the acception of  your "...stupid drivers!" comment,  I can not accept your premise, which is essentially that speed kills. This concept has been around since the dawn of mechanised transport and has no foundation in fact.

 

Fact - as soon as a vehicle starts to move, it becomes a danger to those around and in it - Many a child/pet/passing pedestrian, has been killed or injured by a slow speed vehicle backing out of a parking spot.

 

Fact - Almost every accident is the result of one or more bad drivers, making a series of bad decisions culminating in an accident - The Swiss Cheese concept of how a series of bad decisions, combine to cause an accident.

 

Speed (ie a moving vehicle) is without doubt a multiplying factor  - the accident is likly to be more serious the faster the vehicle is moving. 

 

BUT how did the vehicle come to be involved in an accident in the first instance? There is only one answer THE DRIVER.

 

While humans control vehicles, the only way to reduce accidents is to appropriately train & test the potential driver, maintain driver skill/knowledge, by regular review (BFR model) and fail (remove license) drivers who do not make the grade. Drivers who wilfully drive in a dangerous manor, endangering life & property should be APPROPRIATELY penalised, not some random fine that does not reflect the seriousness of the transgression. 

 

The political/policing efforts to reduce the accident rate, by controlling driver speed, had some initial effect (akine to proscribing an analgesic for pain, without addressing the cause)  but like all poorly targeted control measures, it has become ineffective - the accident rate is rising.

 

Posted speed limits are essential - unfortunately all to often are inconsistent and  appear to be set without a scrape of logic (revenue raising??)

[onetrack]

One has to agree that Skippys belief in the concentration on speeding offences is the wrong and regular response to an increasing road toll, and amounts to a failure - simply because the road toll has increased sharply since 2020. The 2023 road toll was the worst for years, and 2024 is well on the way to being the worst road toll in decades.

 

Speeding is only one part of the equation, and what the authorities conveniently ignore is that speed alone doesn't kill - it's speed coupled with driving inexperience, a lack of competent driving skills, negligence, and just plain carelessness.

I would opine the last factor is a big factor in many smashes, the number of vehicles that run off perfectly good roads into roadside trees, indicates major carelessness and negligence in driving attitudes.

 

Edited September 29 by onetrack

[Red]

Quote

Hi Flightrite,

 

With  the acception of  your "...stupid drivers!" comment,  I can not accept your premise, which is essentially that speed kills. This concept has been around since the dawn of mechanised transport and has no foundation in fact.

There is plenty of evidence That higher speeds equal higher probability of accidents and worse outcomes when they happen

 

https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/ref_mats/fhwasa1304/Resources3/08 - The Relation Between Speed and Crashes.pdf

 

https://www.brake.org.uk/get-involved/take-action/mybrake/knowledge-centre/speed/speed-and-injury

 

There are tons more studies that come to same (rather Obvious) conclusion, Speed isnt the only factor of course, but its a major one.

Edited September 29 by Red

[Ian]

There are excellent older drivers and pilots, however it's likely that they were even better operators in their heyday and it's regretful that we place additional burdens on them however amongst their cohort is an increasing number of dangerous drivers.

 

I'd actually like to point out that the current requirement for getting a driver's licence are far far higher than what was required 60 years ago.

Then you did a written test which was laughable simple, practiced three months and did a driving test with the local policeman.

Many people simple drove around the block or less, four left turns and parallel park in a 100m of free space.

 

Now people have to pay instructors, spend over 100 hours driving with an instructor, do a driving test which takes 30 minutes, and pay for tests. I'm all for pushing back to the original approach because based upon my experience and the comments here this hasn't resulted in any changes at all to the quality of drivers and has only created a cottage industry made possible by bureaucracy.

 

Testing all drivers with the same frequency would be dumb when we have better information. Older drivers, and pilots are simply more likely to be struggling in terms of baseline competence and getting worse, in this situation they're more likely to endanger others, so it makes sense to test their competence frequently. Look at both Biden and Trump, they're both in cognitive decline and if they were driving or flying I'd want them tested regularly.

 

Below is an example of what can happen, would you like this guy flying your plane or driving your car.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-31/senator-mitch-mcconnell-freezes-up-for-a-second-time/102796926

 

 

 

[Ian]

5 hours ago, Red said:

There is plenty of evidence That higher speeds equal higher probability of accidents and worse outcomes when they happen

But there is also plenty of evidence in Australian that this view is promoted for revenue raising.

 

For example the state Governments have strongly resisted releasing the dataset associated with road fatalities and only recently has the Federal Government, after encountering years of resistance tied road funding to releasing this data.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/government-under-fire-over-road-safety-reform-as-death-toll-rises-again/

 

We need a policy which reflects deaths per km travelled and balances the needs of those who regularly travel long distances in regional areas.

 

Or preferably fund the building of lots more high quality airports and airstrips. 😉

 

[Garfly]

On 25/09/2024 at 7:44 AM, Ian said:

The short outtake from the video ... //

Both Aircraft were fitted with ADS-B.  One of the pilots didn't like the FAA knowing where he was and would often switch the ADSB off.

... Whether activating his ADS-B could have saved his life is unknown.

Trent Palmer's take on this issue is interesting, given his own run-ins with the FAA

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCwj9iKVUF4

 

(Obviously, in Oz, we don't have the same freedoms they do in the US around low level ops.)

 

 

 

 

Edited September 29 by Garfly

[Ian]

On 28/09/2024 at 6:43 PM, onetrack said:

Ian, let us know if you still hold the same opinion about ageing drivers capabilities, when you get to 80! 🙂

Yeah this is a fair call and I'll probably rail against the injustice of the world at that point.

But on the flip side I still remember a trip into town with my Grandma who lived in regional Australia when I was young. It remains one of the scariest experiences of my life, luckily no-one else was on the roads.

 

However I still believe that assistive technologies are really beneficial to older drivers. For example my mother's last car has lane assist tech which alerted her to the quality of her driving which sadly is not what it was 20 years ago. It has improved her driving considerably because it has made her aware of her deficiencies.

 

[skippydiesel]

Why do we persistently avoider the SINGLE major factor in ALL road accidents - THE HUMAN  behind the wheel.

 

His / her age may be a factor, road condition undoubtedly have a part to play, the speed being driven at may have multiplayer effect on the outcome BUT the car (at this time) does not drive itself. The human decides on the speed, to indicate or not, to tailgate, to not reverse park, turn left from the right lane, lane hog, etc THE COMMON FACTOR IS THE HUMAN!!!!

 

So many of our drivers believe they are safe drivers, simply because they observe the posted speed limit - HOW DUMB IS THAT! This is the consequence of decades of focus on speed, to the exclusion of almost all other factors.

 

As I said earlier, all the fluffing around the edges by politicians & various authorities, is akin to the doctor prescribing an analgesic for pain and completely ignoring the broken leg.

[facthunter]

Modern cars have so much performance and Isolate you from the reality of going too fast for the conditions prevailing. If you are driving badly you will be having close calls and annoying others.  The signs will be there.    Keep more  distance between you and the car in front especially at higher speeds..Nev

[BurnieM]

12 hours ago, onetrack said:

One has to agree that Skippys belief in the concentration on speeding offences is the wrong and regular response to an increasing road toll, and amounts to a failure - simply because the road toll has increased sharply since 2020. The 2023 road toll was the worst for years, and 2024 is well on the way to being the worst road toll in decades.

I think you need to reset your dataset.

How about we drop 2020 and 2021 from all comparisons of all types and look at comparisons with 2019.

Just a little thing called Covid than generated significant behavioral changes for both enforced and emotional reasons.

 

Edited September 30 by BurnieM

[skippydiesel]

32 minutes ago, BurnieM said:

I think you need to reset your dataset.

How about we drop 2020 and 2021 from all comparisons of all types and look at comparisons with 2019.

Just a little thing called Covid than generated significant behavioral changes for both enforced and emotional reasons.

 

Please expand - how did CV19 "generated significant behavioral changes" in relation to road accident/driver behaviour?

[onetrack]

The road toll dropped sharply during the pandemic, due to restrictions on peoples movement. A substantially reduced level of driving and moving around by road, resulted in an abnormally low road toll.

 

Somewhat surprisingly, and in a reinforcement of official policy - although there were a lesser number of crashes, the level of crashes resulting in substantial major injuries, increased.

This has been attributed to drivers speeding more, because there was less traffic on the roads! Higher impact speeds in crashes = increased level of major injuries.

 

An overview of the impact of COVID-19 on road traffic safety and travel behavior - ScienceDirect

WWW.SCIENCEDIRECT.COM

---

The COVID-19 epidemic caused global roads and highway networks to be disrupted to historic proportions. While the world is focused on combating COVID-…

 

[pmccarthy]

IMHO there was more responsible driving when we had few speed limits. When I learned, there was no open road speed limit and just one in-town speed limit. Every driver had to decide what was safe for the conditions. If you got it wrong, Mr Plod could charge you with "speed dangerous" or "manner dangerous". Now there are varying limits everywhere, and most drivers take them to be the mandatory speeds for driving that segment. Thye drive to the limit regardless of conditions. I know when I say "slow down a bit" SWMBO replies "Its 80 here" and ignores me.

[Moneybox]

Considering we've veered a little from the intended subject of this thread I'll add my little bit.

 

I believe the drivers license should be a little like the pilot's license. Make it reasonably easy to obtain a basic license but have it restricted until sufficient driving skills can be demonstrated. Everybody should be involved in motorsport where precision driving is required to keep you in the race. I competed in Rallying, Speedway, Autocross, Dirt go-karts and all sorts of associated events. Of course the kids got involved as well from a very young age. For one thing it gives you a chance to blow off steam in a controlled environment but also you learn how to handle a motor vehicle when it slips and slides, bounces and lands. You experience fast driving on loose and slippery surfaces. You learn to tow and reverse a trailer and how to tie down a load.

 

Just a matter of interest. Have you noticed the many thousands of caravans on the road these days? I guess if you spend all your time in the city you might have missed it but most of these vehicles are under the control of very old people and very few get into trouble. Many of these are towing for the first time in their life as well and most demonstrate exceptionally good driving skills.

[skippydiesel]

"Many of these are towing for the first time in their life as well and most demonstrate exceptionally good driving skills."

 

Conjecture, based on only a few observations and much scutlebut;

 

I see brand new (often high end) 4X4's towing huge caravans, at speeds a long way below the freeway/road limit, with the bonnet of tug in the air & the van hitch near the ground. Incase there are those who see nothing wrong with this picture;

• Wherever safe to do so, you should drive at the posted speed limit (or close to it). Driving below the posted limit, creates a moving barrier to other traffics free flow. This in turn creates a dangerous situaton for you and the other road users. Just because it's legal, to drive at any speed below that posted, does not mean its safe or considerate to do so.
• Trailers (caravans) and their tug (4X4 or other) are designed to ride level. This optimises the performance of suspension, breaks and steering. When all is level the combination is at its most stable, manoeuvrable and wear/tear is minimised.

Could be the caravan combinations, crawling along the public road, are doing so because the driver is in a state of terror, due to the unstable ride & steering.

 

I have seen and heard many a story about the  caravan/4X4  turning up at park and requesting someone else back the unit into its assigned space.

 

Mind you if they are on the round Australia trip,  if they manage to get half way (near  Cue  for Esties 😁),  I would expect the above mentioned issues to have been resolved -  living in hope 😈

 

 

[Moneybox]

9 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

"Many of these are towing for the first time in their life as well and most demonstrate exceptionally good driving skills."

 

Conjecture, based on only a few observations and much scutlebut;

 

I see brand new (often high end) 4X4's towing huge caravans, at speeds a long way below the freeway/road limit, with the bonnet of tug in the air & the van hitch near the ground. Incase there are those who see nothing wrong with this picture;

• Wherever safe to do so, you should drive at the posted speed limit (or close to it). Driving below the posted limit, creates a moving barrier to other traffics free flow. This in turn creates a dangerous situaton for you and the other road users. Just because it's legal, to drive at any speed below that posted, does not mean its safe or considerate to do so.
• Trailers (caravans) and their tug (4X4 or other) are designed to ride level. This optimises the performance of suspension, breaks and steering. When all is level the combination is at its most stable, manoeuvrable and wear/tear is minimised.

Could be the caravan combinations, crawling along the public road, are doing so because the driver is in a state of terror, due to the unstable ride & steering.

 

I have seen and heard many a story about the  caravan/4X4  turning up at park and requesting someone else back the unit into its assigned space.

 

Mind you if they are on the round Australia trip,  if they manage to get half way (near  Cue  for Esties 😁),  I would expect the above mentioned issues to have been resolved -  living in hope 😈

 

 

I must admit we only see the cream of the crop in the west ☺️