Lakeside near Bloomsbury - aircraft missing 2 April 2023

[Thruster88]

10 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Expensive way of making a point. Not too valid since he decided it in the first place and you might have made more enquiries and ruled it out in the first place. Also It may only be valid once as the "word" gets around as it does in these things. . I'm a bit wary of setting up these Tests for students as it doesn't really tell you how the student will behave if you're not there. He/She might think Gee this is a bit much but HE must think I'm up to it so that's a pat on my back and press on where you wouldn't have normally   There's also the expectation that he'll take over IF needed.  Nev

If the student did the research and ruled the strip out that would be a good outcome. 

If the student did the research and like Rossk had a look and made a good decision that is a good outcome. 

If the student did the research, flew an accurate approach (airspeed)  and hit the desired touch down spot that is a good outcome. 

 

Better to learn all this with an instructor that is prepared to teach for the real world.

 

It is easy to become complacent landing at a big wide very long strip like Cowra, at my farm strip in the RV or Musketeer with a 70knot approach speed and a narrow strip accuracy is required.  

  

[Ironpot]

This is such a sad one. Clearly many families impacted by it and it could have been far worse.

I might be naive but I honestly thought we had seen the last of unqualified/unendorsed pilots without medicals and guys operating aircraft without MRs, insurance etc. many years ago.

If something similar was attempted in any road vehicle I’m sure that the boys In blue would be onto it in a flash. Other than some cross border enquiries during the Covid period, I have never seen any pilot have their bona fides checked.

Surely somebody knew what was occurring with this lad and understood where it could lead. The ATSB have washed their hands of it now and it’s too late for them to comment further but should they have suggested that steps could be taken to help it from occurring again?
 

[spenaroo]

I wouldn't be sure....
 

This is the YouTube age, where people believe you can teach yourself anything from some online tutorial a random posted.
(which you have no idea if its the best practice or not - but everyone just assumes it is)

already had a few jets stolen as some clout chasing pilot's posted videos on how to start them.
 

[RFguy]

any any idiot can get an airplane airborne IF they manage to keep it straight on the TO roll. landing though is a different story. 

[onetrack]

I fail to understand how this bloke could continue to fly with no licence and inadequate training. The aviation community is small, surely someone knew what he was up to, but said nothing?

As always, it behoves us all to speak up when we see someone doing something inordinately foolish, and on track to kill themselves with arrogant stupidity - and kill innocent others, as happened here.

[rgmwa]

He was the registered owner and operator of the plane, so you would think friends or family would have been aware of what he was doing.

 

[turboplanner]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

I fail to understand how this bloke could continue to fly with no licence and inadequate training. The aviation community is small, surely someone knew what he was up to, but said nothing?

As always, it behoves us all to speak up when we see someone doing something inordinately foolish, and on track to kill themselves with arrogant stupidity - and kill innocent others, as happened here.

One of the weaknesses of a prescriptive system like CASA and the State Road Authorities, and something pointed out by the more irresponsible end of RA, is that they have to catch you to find out what you've been up to and even then there will be a chorus of hate fom like-minded people whereas in self administration the authorities don't have to catch you; when you kill or injure someone else their lawyers come after you, all on the private purse. It's weakness is that while nothing happens nothing happens; this has a big advantage over the precriptive regime where often inexperienced academics sit down and write rules which are not practical or are not causing deaths or injuries and three quarters of the State could be paying hundreds of dollars per year when they are operating safely. In self administration there has to be a body or an injury so its application is much more precise.

[Blueadventures]

5 hours ago, onetrack said:

I fail to understand how this bloke could continue to fly with no licence and inadequate training. The aviation community is small, surely someone knew what he was up to, but said nothing?

As always, it behoves us all to speak up when we see someone doing something inordinately foolish, and on track to kill themselves with arrogant stupidity - and kill innocent others, as happened here.

I recall reading he had done 5 hours solo; so would have been competent enough.  Too slack, busy, arrogant or a mixture to get back and be signed off.

[facthunter]

Your last line really doesn't compute. Is his mistake not doing the paperwork?. 5 Hours of what kind of solo? In the training area and the local circuit? Nev

[Blueadventures]

4 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Your last line really doesn't compute. Is his mistake not doing the paperwork?. 5 Hours of what kind of solo? In the training area and the local circuit? Nev

Just saying it seems for some reason he did not complete / continue training to gain license (maybe for the above reasons or other reasons, as they mentioned his medical was ok).  Even if he achieved a license still may have made the same decisions that day.

[kgwilson]

A few hours solo & having sat the exams etc in no way prepares you for flying in bad weather. That is an attitude issue unless it has been drummed in to you by an instructor or you have flown with someone competent in those situations.

 

You can pass all of the exams by just having read what is in the books but never actually taking much heed of what the real message is.

[facthunter]

Often IF you know a large amount about a subject, the exam won't suit you. It's NOT knowing the book. It's UNDERSTANDING the subject material and applying it properly. THAT might take time and a few more books.  Nev

[RFguy]

well, today or tomorrow  was going to fly to Port Macquarie for a get together. However, the GAF is more than just a couple of sentences, its a couple of   pages of hazards.. Instructor was right. If the GAF is more than a couple of lines stay on the ground. MOD MTW, SEV TURB and low cloud.

[Old Koreelah]

1 hour ago, kgwilson said:

You can pass all of the exams by just having read what is in the books but never actually taking much heed of what the real message is.

I happen to be pretty good at breezing thru written exams, but that doesn’t make me any more competent than the person who struggles with literacy.

Much like IQ tests, exams were developed as a cheap way to catagorise huge numbers of people; they are not a very reliable indicator of a person’s potential.

After five decades in the education and training sector, I’m heartily sick of administrators over-using office technology to generate reams of bureaucratic waffle. In one role I’m still saddled with, I am required to be on top of hundreds of pages of repetitious piffle, just to train volunteers. 

These days technology should be able to reliably test an individual’s ability to perform a task. Simulators could help us train and assess recreational pilots; modern cars already use technology to assess a driver’s reaction time and alertness. Perhaps flying schools could as well.

 

[facthunter]

You and I are both Chalkies. There's always new brooms seeking to rename everything and get promotion.    Nev

[Ironpot]

Simply wasn’t a good day for scud running/VFR :

[kgwilson]

2 hours ago, RFguy said:

well, today or tomorrow  was going to fly to Port Macquarie for a get together. However, the GAF is more than just a couple of sentences, its a couple of   pages of hazards.. Instructor was right. If the GAF is more than a couple of lines stay on the ground. MOD MTW, SEV TURB and low cloud.

Yesterday the forecast was for Westerlies 15-30kmh and fine conditions. There wasn't a cloud in the sky and little wind when I left home. There was a 10-15 knot wind from the SW when I got to South Grafton straight down the runway. It is mostly bush till about 10 NM from Casino which was where I decided to go. I knew it would not be smooth flying. It was quite rough in fact and I could see the clouds forming from small thermals that were popping off the brown farm patches & then get shredded by the wind. I was at 3500 feet and the base of these a bit over 4000. As I approached these I got trashed. They were small but very punchy & I had over 1000 up followed by 1000 down within a few seconds and got involuntarily turned 90 deg & banked 60-70 deg a few times. I instantly pulled the thriottle back till well under VA (85 knots) after the first one but even at 70 knots it was most unpleasant. 

 

I knew what this was but would a new pilot with 5 hours solo have any real idea and then know what to do?

[Old Koreelah]

1 hour ago, kgwilson said:

Yesterday the forecast was for Westerlies 15-30kmh and fine conditions. There wasn't a cloud in the sky and little wind when I left home. There was a 10-15 knot wind from the SW when I got to South Grafton straight down the runway…

As I approached these I got trashed. They were small but very punchy & I had over 1000 up followed by 1000 down within a few seconds and got involuntarily turned 90 deg & banked 60-70 deg a few times. I instantly pulled the thriottle back till well under VA (85 knots) after the first one but even at 70 knots it was most unpleasant…

Too rough for wimps like me! I hate being tossed about and your report has me revising my planned flight to Qld this Saturday for the Superbikes. Besides, the planes’s far from ready and I need a few days of test flying before a trip like that. 

 

This is my favourite time of year for flying: weaker thermals and clear skies, but those westerlies carry mechanical turbulance for miles.

[old man emu]

I find it very interesting that my knowledge of local weather gained from living most of my life in Southwest Sydney or the Southern Highlands is  near useless now I live further north. Looking at this synoptic chart, I would be expecting  strong south-westerly winds here, but it has been calm. 

 

You can see from the forecast synoptic charts that the strong High tends to block the Low from coming much further north than the Murray River and the pressure gradient lessens along a diagonal between the mouth of the Murray and the NSW Central Coast. 

 

About 30 kms south of Gilgandra is the boundary between the Macquarie River catchment and the Castlereagh River catchment. It seems to mark a rainfall boundary as well. There's a little village close by the boundary where the rainfall is less than surrounding towns and villages. In describing the rainfall totals there, the locals  say that when it rained on Noah for forty days and forty nights, they only got forty points.

 

[Old Koreelah]

It can be instructive to listen to long-time residents about the weather; farmers often have a deep insight built on decades of observations (on which their livelihood depends) and can give pretty reliable forecasts.

 

Some local farmers I regularly talk to always ask how much rain we got and compare it to theirs. 

We’re on the edge of the hills and usually get considerably more that those out on the plains.

[onetrack]

You have to remember that the isobars are merely drawn representations of surface pressure, and the winds are always at a slight angle to the indicated isobar lines, because the high and low pressure systems are spinning swirls and vortexes, and this creates curved airflows - which are more pronounced with low pressure systems. Then you have eddies and gusts within the airflows, and this has caught out a lot of people - not just aviators.

A mate was working on the repair of a 4M high door track on a farm at Kojonup (W.A.) in April 2017. It was a fine morning with only a light SW wind. He stood his ladder against the door, secured the ladder and door against the wind direction, and climbed the ladder to inspect the track.

While he was working, the wind suddenly changed direction and gusted from the NW - resulting in a rapid door movement opposite to the secured direction. This unexpected movement threw his ladder to the ground, he fell 4M onto an open concrete area out front of the shed, and broke his leg and elbow. He said the last thing he expected was a sudden wind change and gust, because the weather pattern showed a relatively calm day with light winds.

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by onetrack

[facthunter]

It's calm because the MSL Isobars are widely spaced and stable because there a high pressure system over you .  Next consider where the air at your place is coming from. If it passes over high ground it may condense and some moisture may be taken from it.  This is a practical analysis any one can apply. Ground winds cross the isobars for High to lower pressure at 30 degrees to the line of the isobars. Any where  that the airmass is cooling expect more cloud or fog  (like later in the day or near the coast. A low cloud base means a high(er) relative humidity in that area.  When the wet and dry bulb temps are close beware of fog or low cloud forming.   Nev

[facthunter]

 When the forecast said L&V we  always interpreted it as "Light and vicious". watch sea breezes coming in and frontal activity and winds on the downside of ranges. and then there's little cyclones (willy willies) to scare the $#1t out of you occasionally. These patterns appear to be getting more severe and more severe turbulence events in flight also at many levels.  Nev

[Old Koreelah]

9 hours ago, onetrack said:

This unexpected movement threw his ladder to the ground, he fell 4M onto an open concrete area out front of the shed, and broke his leg and elbow. He said the last thing he expected was a sudden wind change and gust, because the weather pattern showed a relatively calm day with light winds.

Damned hangar doors probably cause more injuries than aeroplanes; our club’s folding door once bit me big time.

 

[RFguy]

probably just a thermal bubble letting go.