My spies tell me Jabiru has been sold

[turboplanner]

24 minutes ago, onetrack said:

I'd suggest dragging a caravan from Melbourne to Cairns is one of the stupidest ideas out and the economics don't stack up.

These people pay $100K for a van, $100K for a massively overpowered 4WD to haul it, pay out $300 a day in fuel costs for dragging their hated highway clogger the 3000kms to get there - and when they get there, the school holidays are half over, they get a few days in Cairns, then have to depart again and clog the highways on the way back.

 

I've owned plenty of vans for work purposes and they're a constant PIA, with high maintenance costs, insurance, licencing, tyres - and plenty of them are poorly built as caravan manufacturers pop up everywhere, trying to get a share of the RV dollar. Caravan parts are always half the size and twice the cost.

 

My holidays involve no $100K van, no $100K fuel-hogging 4WD, and no clogged highways stress.

Airline fares are the cheapest method of going long distances, accommodation is available in most places, and hire cars are cheap, and always the latest model with good reliability. 

It's about time people woke up to the idiotic "RV dream", it's not a dream, it's an expensive nightmare, and it means stress-filled holidaying.

So says the OneTrack Bible however when the kids are tired halfway between Bendigo and Mildura, you can pull into a side track and go to sleep. At Wentworth you can stop and hand feed the possums in the caravan park, when things get boring half way to Broken Hill and you see a Blue Tongue lizard you can open a can of tinned fruit and let the kids feed it and it will identify they are mates and let them hold it and pet it and we still haven't go to the Qinkins or being the forst one to see a Cassowary, or the duck shooting for the evening meal etc.

 

I grew up in a manufacturing environment where we built what the customer needed, and we added numbers or customers or dropped numbers of customers, in the thousands, based on the specification decisions we made.

[kgwilson]

I am not saying that everyone who doesn't have an EV can get stuffed at all. I am saying that we need to adapt our way of living to reduce using fossil fuel use or get to a tipping point where change is unable to be reversed for hundreds or thousands of years. With all the climate talks etc over the past 20 years the insatiable appetite of the human race has for consumption has pushed emissions higher despite all the empty promises. Known oil reserves will only last another 45 years at current consumption.

 

Australia has an obsession with large cars. In the last 20 years they have grown bigger every year with the SUV sector now easily the most popular. A large percentage of the huge 4WD SUVs never get off the tarmac & clog the already congested city roads. Our car culture is very America centric as the government paid Ford & GM to keep large car manufacturing going here for over 50 years. Look what happened when the European 2 litre saloon car class arrived on the racing scene. The V8s weren't competitive so the 2 lites were banned & the V8 supercar racing is still hugely popular.

 

Transport is only one part of this. Buring coal to generate electricity is the worst part.

 

Why should I care, I'll be dead before everything turns completely to custard. I would rather be part of the solution, if there is one rather than keep my head in the sand and continue to be part of the problem.

[kgwilson]

2 hours ago, RFguy said:

KG what are your  total  estimated servicing costs over 300,000 km ? just wondering

Servicing is once every 2 years or 40,000km & that is about $250.00. The brake fluid is replaced every 2 years as well as the A/C filter. Other than that the service book has lots of Check statements. In year 4, 8 etc the cost is $900.00. What they do for that I don't know other than replace the transmission and battery coolant as well as the brake fluid. The book justs has a lot of Check statements again. It sounds like a rip off to me given Teslas require nothing. If you don't do it you void the 7 year warranty & the free roadside assist, so I guess I only need to do it once after 4 years & then find a good EV service outfit. I am assuming by then there will be a lot more than there are now.

 

When I took it back for the free 1000km check the service people didn't even know how to start the car so I spent a few minutes showing them a bunch of things.

[facthunter]

Hydrocarbon fuels are going to get much more expensive, less available and cause wars. We are energy Junkies. Australia has so much sun.  Arrays of solar panels don't ruin any land. You could grow things and graze animals under it  and the energy from the sun comes here anyhow, With nuclear you add more heat and we've seen the risks with Putin's careless and irresponsible actions re the world largest Nuclear Plant in Ukraine.  Lots of this stuff has a 1/2 life of 30,000 years and one microgram of plutonium in you anywhere means death. Nev

Edited November 30, 2023 by facthunter
spelling

[pmccarthy]

The following may be useful in making comparisons when machines have different expected lives. I used to teach equipment selection for mines and wrote this.

 

The Average Annual Cost is the sum of Depreciation, Interest and Operating Cost. Consider a truck that has an initial cost of $1.0M and a salvage value of $0.2M after an estimated four-year service life. The depreciation is thus $0.8M over four years or $0.2M per year. 

 

The interest expense arises, because owning an asset ties up capital. This is true whether you borrow all or part of the purchase price, or whether you use your own money. In the latter case there is an opportunity, cost because that money could have been invested elsewhere. The average investment is:

 

($1.0M + $0.2M) / 2 = $0.6M

 

If your company has a cost of capital (or cost of borrowing) of 10% per annum then the annual interest expense is 0.1 x $0.6M or $60,000 for each of the four years.

 

The annual operating cost may be calculated from the estimated hourly operating cost of $200 per hour (which includes operator, fuel, tyres, maintenance etc. and the cost of a major rebuild at 12,000 hours) and the expected utilisation of 5,500 hours per year, which is a total of $1.1M per year.

 

From the above, the Average Annual Cost is:

 

$0.2M + $0.06M + $1.1M = $1.36M

 

A similar calculation can be made for each of the trucks under consideration. The equipment selection decision can then be based on these results, together with all of the other important considerations about manufacturer's support and spares availability.

[facthunter]

YOU can't just pull over on the edge of the road or a  clear spot and stay for the night anywhere in most states.. The" I'm all right Jack" is an example of a Straw Man argument.  If you have a few minutes look it up on Google.   Nev

[turboplanner]

2 minutes ago, facthunter said:

YOU can't just pull over on the edge of the road or a  clear spot and stay for the night anywhere in most states.. The" I'm all right Jack" is an example of a Straw Man argument.  If you have a few minutes look it up on Google.   Nev

I’m aware of the straw man argument from stories about old radial emgines  etc. , but I should have added the words “where permitted”.

[skippydiesel]

3 minutes ago, facthunter said:

YOU can't just pull over on the edge of the road or a  clear spot and stay for the night anywhere in most states.. The" I'm all right Jack" is an example of a Straw Man argument.  If you have a few minutes look it up on Google.   Nev

I think you mean you can but you shouldn't,  as its against the law. 😁

 

I agree with all that has been said about the caravan/motorhome - I dont own one (strictly not true, as I converted a 1975 Viscount Supreme caravan, to an aircraft carrier,  but I can see the attraction (sort of fantasy).

I have friends with caravans/motorhomes - the only one I would come close to considering,  is the converted luxury coach (completely rebuilt from the chassis up by the owner - easy 110 kph), even then it would have to be a gift. They are all "mature" persons, long past tenting, particularly the females, who all seem to want a toilet/shower/regular bed and cooking facilities.

I will be touring at 2000 ft ++, 130 knots, 15L/hr - true no interactions (I hope) with wildlife & my luggage capacity (with full fuel) is very small but I will have an unobstructed view, get to my destination (for the day) well rested, in good time to hire that car for some local sightseeing.

[facthunter]

Radials are very unique and interesting engines in many ways and they are not all OLD. I DO have a greater than  average interest in motors and a lot of experience in building and modifying them and flying behind a lot of them. Maybe some one is interested in My passing on of facts that  I hope will increase knowledge. Is that OK?  It's not an  exam question. No one HAS to read my posts.  Nev

[facthunter]

I'm amazed at the amount of money people tie up in giant Caravans. The Only Caravan I've ever used was made by Peters Ice Cream in South Australia and is a Pop up weighing about 800 lbs. I lengthened the front part so the van doors could open with it still hooked up, and it tracks better. It owes me less than $2,000. If you are going on a trip surely why you are going is to see and experience what's OUTSIDE meet people and see things. It can also be easily Levelled which I consider ESSENTIAL. No  doubt a lot of People would deride it as they have to justify their Own choice and having your own shower is a plus, but it's surprising what you can do with a little "Investment". Nev

Edited November 30, 2023 by facthunter

[kgwilson]

Most caravanners spend a large amount on the assets and a large amount of fuel. Most say it is the lifestyle that counts. For me I'd rather get there fresh with someone else doing all the work & spend the money on 5 star accommodation & hire something to get around in or just get taxis & buses. I can do this once or twice a year for less than the depreciation on the giant caravan & 4WD let alone maintenance & fuel.

[facthunter]

You may find yourself using it because you have it. They also deteriorate when left in the open particularly if you've been stopping near Beaches and the associated salt it entails. They are large areas to wash and polish and can't be moved around easily to mow under and they end up full of creepy Crawlies with 8 legs. . Costs a monty to take to Tassie. I suppose you could rent it out to some Chinese students. Nev

[turboplanner]

32 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

I think you mean you can but you shouldn't,  as its against the law. 😁

 

I agree with all that has been said about the caravan/motorhome - I dont own one (strictly not true, as I converted a 1975 Viscount Supreme caravan, to an aircraft carrier,  but I can see the attraction (sort of fantasy).

I have friends with caravans/motorhomes - the only one I would come close to considering,  is the converted luxury coach (completely rebuilt from the chassis up by the owner - easy 110 kph), even then it would have to be a gift. They are all "mature" persons, long past tenting, particularly the females, who all seem to want a toilet/shower/regular bed and cooking facilities.

I will be touring at 2000 ft ++, 130 knots, 15L/hr - true no interactions (I hope) with wildlife & my luggage capacity (with full fuel) is very small but I will have an unobstructed view, get to my destination (for the day) well rested, in good time to hire that car for some local sightseeing.

If you ever pull into a caravan and find the communal fire started with people starting to gather you can be the DEBATE will start soon. Caravans and camping have much bigger forums than this site. I started out camping and wouldn't touch a caravan, then my wife asked how much she could spent on one so I confidently said $140.00 and she came back and said "We need to go and pick it up" As we drove into Eldorado Caravan Park the door fell off. My brother decided to come over to a Gemfest in Victoria. We descrived the van. There were 8000 people camped there, but he drove up to our van. At one stage we had 32 beds at our place from tents, camper trailer, caravan and motor home. All had specific uses and we took the kids into the Outback to places like Lake Eyre, Woomera etc. We'd noticed the old caravaners dying out each season, so decided to travel while we were young; turned out to be a good decision. There's also nothing wrong with flying cross country the way you do, or travelling Brisbane to Cairns by Jetstar and hiring a car or aircraft there. It's a free country.

 

Same goes with the method of transport.

[kasper]

4 hours ago, RFguy said:

Look.

1) electric cars are nice, but as highway cruisers they are marginal ROI . 

2) For city stop start folk that can use regenerative braking effectively, they are fantastic.

and they are price comparible with ICE cars as they havea small battery.
but

if we take the highway cruiser : 

The 50k electric car (with a 300km battery)  once youve done 300,000km in it  is going to have cost you $66,000 (electricity costs from the mains at night) . plus perhaps $500/year service (15 years) = 73.5k
The 30,000 hybrid car at 4.5l/100km is goign to be $27,000 in fuel at 300,000km, so $57,000

(plus alot more in servicing, say $1200/year x 15  = 18k  = 30+27+18 = 75k

 

But to be apples with apples for highway cruising, you really do need at least 450km range or a 65 ish kwh battery .. really you do.... so you really need the 65k electric car.  so you electric car is another 10 grand. 

 

this is all assuming you are not paying any sort of CO2 polluting tax If you have a massive solar array at home say 15kW   your electricity costs are goign to be much lower, eventually) payback time on investment not to be forgotten !

 

so....

 

 

Hmmm apples and pears to an extent - there is no such thing as a $27k new Hybrid available so I can't reconcile your calcs.

 

How about real world current compare - and I will give EV for small and large battery to compare.

 

So my assumptions. 

Inflation will impact both vehicles equally over the next 15 years.  I do not believe this but it makes the compare simple.

I am looking at a fairly 'normal' family car

Hybrid => Toyota Camry, EV => BYD Seal

Both are priced at current on road without adding extras like metalic paint etc.

Both will be run for 300,000 km over 15 years

Both will be serviced by a garage not by the owner

I will ignore insurance and registration for the years assuming an equivalent cost

Fuel / electric prices are what I see today in Armidale NSW

 

Here goes.

Camry - specs, efficiency and price from Toyota

Purchase $48,500 on the road

4.3L/100km = 12,900L = $36,045 pump price today

Servicing (from RFguy) = $1,200pa = $18,000

Total cost to compare = $102,545

Range is around 1,100km/tank

 

BYD Seal - short range

Purchase $51,900 on the road (incl home charger)

61kw battery = 380km real range on highway (worst case) = 16kw/100km

At home charge = $14,400

Charge fox public prices

Slow = $14,400

Fast = $19,200

Servicing (from RFguy) = $500pa = $7,500

Total cost to compare = $73,800 - $78,600

Range is 380km

 

BYD Seal - long range

Purchase $60,800 on the road (incl home charger)

82.5kw battery = 510km real range on highway (worst case) = 16kw/100km

At home charge = $14,400

Charge fox

Slow = $14,400

Fast = $19,200

Servicing (from RFguy) = $500pa = $7,500

Total cost to compare = $82,700 - $87,500

Range is 510km

 

No matter the compare both EVs are cheaper over life than the hybrid so you are really only looking at range and up-front costs.

And if you could live with the lower driving range BYD Seal you have saved more than the purchase differential in the first 3 years of ownership.

 

In the real world WHO drives more than 450km without taking at least a 20-30 min break?  Because that's the time it takes to do a 20-80% recharge on these vehicles at those costs.

Against that you do have the risk that petrol prices will rise in cost faster than electric making the EV even more attractive

In addition, ANY solar from roof electric use over the 15 years improves the EV - I've done worst case grid electric/public charging for all km

In addition, ANY around town driving improves the EV - I used open highway range cruising around - plus IF you are mostly in city start-stop driving in the hybrid your fuel efficiency will fall making you even worse than the EV as they get better

 

And all of this disregards

1. any and all atmospheric carbon from the fuel and 

2. how your children/grandchildren will view you in 5 years let alone 15 years and

3. the reality that new ICE and hybrids will cease to exist on showroom floors in int e5-10 year timeframe,

 

On 3. there is nothing Australia can do - we have to accept this because we are product takers in this market because we manufacture no mass market vehicles and that will not change towards opening new ICE or Hybrid vehicles that are unsaleable outside Australia. 

 

I can do the same for an electric ute but the range issues on that one are more real - the LDV eT60 looks like real world range around 265km on a charge with load but not full tow capacity.

Whilst that is OK for around the farm and to-from town for many farms it's not realistic for way out west farms and/or towing a caravan on holiday a long way from home.

That operational area is still to have a real world electric solution.

 

But lets be fair and clear - TODAY EVs have no real issue with beating hybrids on a pure $ cost basis for the vast majority of actual Australian family cars. 

[kgwilson]

Hybrid maintenance is somewhat higher than pure ICE largely due to the complexity of the combination of drive trains. The fire risk is also 300% higher than pure ICE. At this point they are a good option for many who are obsessed with range.

 

I had one stop on each of my 500km journeys for 20 minutes to top up the charge. This was on fast DC (50-75kW) chargers and not 350kW superchargers which would have chopped the charge time in half. I cruised at 110kmh most of the way. Time to destination was no different than in my old ICE car. There is so much less stress in the EV. I don't know if that is due to no vibration or noise from the engine or what but I felt fresher after 400km than I felt previously.

 

As an EV owner I am of course biased but I have been bitten & am now smitten.

[skippydiesel]

What are the Australian population distribution statistics? - 80 -90% live in/close to, a few large metropolitan centres?

I wonder how many of our car owning urbane brother/sisters drive more than 1,000 km/anum? 

What distance  is the average urban trip? - my bet it's no more than about 10-20k

A worthwhile Government would have seen the light (fifty years ago) and constructed a selection of efficient (cheap or free/fast/frequent/safe / comfortable) public urban transport systems - no need for a private car.

Electric vehicles, available for hire, in accessible mini depots all around the city & environs - no need for a private car.

Large centers would have a few commercial distribution hubs around the periphery - only electric delivery into the city.

For those wanting a longer range/heavier duty vehicle - subsidized rental might be the way to go. Gov. could legislate to require an adequate selection of vehicles (try finding a suitable hire vehicle, fitted with electric trailer brakes, to tow a horse float - non in the Sydney Basin)

Public transport "stations" would have, in close proximity, adequat/secure vehicle parking - this no brainer seems to have escaped the Greater Sydney planning twits.

Could be started now - think of the reduction in pollution, energy saving,  road maintenance/construction savings (Sydney has just opened some sort of underground spaghetti junction - shear madness)

[facthunter]

Hardly anyone would drive a car less than 1000km/Annum A taxi would be much cheaper and you wouldn't get good service from the motor or exhaust system life . Nev

[turboplanner]

2 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

What are the Australian population distribution statistics? - 80 -90% live in/close to, a few large metropolitan centres?

I wonder how many of our car owning urbane brother/sisters drive more than 1,000 km/anum? 

What distance  is the average urban trip? - my bet it's no more than about 10-20k

A worthwhile Government would have seen the light (fifty years ago) and constructed a selection of efficient (cheap or free/fast/frequent/safe / comfortable) public urban transport systems - no need for a private car.

Electric vehicles, available for hire, in accessible mini depots all around the city & environs - no need for a private car.

Large centers would have a few commercial distribution hubs around the periphery - only electric delivery into the city.

For those wanting a longer range/heavier duty vehicle - subsidized rental might be the way to go. Gov. could legislate to require an adequate selection of vehicles (try finding a suitable hire vehicle, fitted with electric trailer brakes, to tow a horse float - non in the Sydney Basin)

Public transport "stations" would have, in close proximity, adequat/secure vehicle parking - this no brainer seems to have escaped the Greater Sydney planning twits.

Could be started now - think of the reduction in pollution, energy saving,  road maintenance/construction savings (Sydney has just opened some sort of underground spaghetti junction - shear madness)

Public Transport take you from where you have to catch it to where it drops you off.

 

Owning a vehicle takes you from where you want to start to where you want to finish with the ability to take with you want you want.  So a few million more options.

 

The Kyoto, Japan solution is Shinkansen for major rural routes (2.6 hours Melbourne to Sydney from several platforms around town plus

Country rail

Local Rail

Above ground rail/bus local

Free mini Loop Bus local

Below ground rail connecting suburbs

 

Time scale to set that up; from around 1920.

Cost: Mostly privately owned.

 

[facthunter]

You also carry things you have bought/need. Many people can't walk far let alone be weighed down with stuff.  Having things delivered may be an answer here.  Nev

[turboplanner]

30 minutes ago, skippydiesel said:

What are the Australian population distribution statistics? - 80 -90% live in/close to, a few large metropolitan centres?

You can't politically condemn those outside your tent to poverty through lack of transport, so you have to find a solution for every City, every town and every property in Australia.

 

And BTW at the present time you have to convert all Public Transport rail either to Battery Electric power-generated by wind or solar or build solar/windfarms to power those huge electricity sinks which are currently emitting masses of CO2 at their Coal-fired Power Station supply points to make any sense of pushing people to EV.

 

It would be a lot cheaper for governments to do the research from the time the United Nations started the global warming programme in 1968.

 

Then you might not have to do anything.

 

 

 

[turboplanner]

Here are some more BEV costs on a Sydney-Melbourne trip from the Daily Mirror

[facthunter]

That one experience  for a newspaper is no doubt "tailored" to the Point being made .  It's like some statistics. It  all depends on how you frame it. The truth is much harder to find. Get it from sources with NO agenda. Nev

[kgwilson]

What do you expect from the Daily Mail?

 

My 1100km trip cost me $53.00. One charge at 30c (50kW charger Helensvale), one at 50c (50kW destination charger Noosa) & one at 55c (75kW charger Ballina). At Noosa the charger was next to the hotel so I topped up to 100% while at Dinner. I had 100km local travel around Noosa - Coolum  The other 2 were 20 minute charges one on the way there & 1 on the way back. The same time as I would normally stop for a bite.

 

I left home with 100% which I pay 19.5c/kWH for & got back with 35% left so add another $7.80 so $61.00 total. I would fill the old car twice on that trip so $236.00 at $2.00 a litre so allowing for fuel left when I got back home the cost in fuel alone is about $190.00 to $200.00. Then of course very low maintenance and absolutely zero emissions.

 

Then daily driving is all at my home off peak rate. I only have a small solar system so don't charge during the day. If I had an 8kW system (pretty average size these days) I'd charge during the day as my wall charger is 7kW & I charge from about 10% to 80% once or twice a week between 11pm & 5am. None of this is rocket science but there are some dumb people out there.

 

Spend about 5k on a decent solar system & running costs are virtually zero for daily running once the payback is complete. What is not to like about that.

[turboplanner]

Here's the de-Social Media-ised original Daily Mail story I posted.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-12769167/Hyundai-Ioniq-5-road-trip-Melbourne-Sydney-expensive-slow.html

 

Source: Daily Mail Australia

Journalist: Belinda Cleary

Published: 21:19 AEDT 20/11/23

Updated: 10:24 AEDT 21/11/23

 

As you can see some of the story is backed up by the photos, and the trip distances, Stop locations, charge times, and amounts are shown.

 

If anyone believes these have been tailored or falsified, you should contact the Australian Press Council on this link: https://presscouncil.org.au/

There's a link to help you make your comments which will be adjudicated and the adjudication published.

 

I'd be interested to see the results.

 

[facthunter]

The Press Council is funded by the MSM. WHY waste our time?  Papers are made to sell on Fear hate  sensation  entertainment etc and maybe inform and I do mean MAY. Nev