Fatal Light Aircraft Crash Gundaroo North of Canberra 6 Oct 2023

[FlyingVizsla]

 

Emergency services responding to fatal light aircraft crash outside Gundaroo, north of Canberra - ABC News

WWW.ABC.NET.AU

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Emergency services are at the scene of a fatal light aircraft crash at Gundaroo, after it took off from Canberra Airport about 2:30pm. Police...

 

[red750]

Ch 7 News reports the aircraft was a Cirrus SR22, VH-MSF, owned by a Queensland pilot, a member of the Redcliffe Aero Club and RFDS. 

[FlyBoy1960]

More here.   https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/346298

 

4 Fatalities  

[red750]

ABC News advises that 3 children were among the dead.

 

Read more here.

[Markdun]

I know that area pretty well.  Ground is around 3000’asl; Canberra control lower level 3500. So if you are VFR there’s not a lot of room and not many paddocks, but the new and old Federal Hwys would be suitable. I flew today on the other side of Lake George a couple of hours earlier: cloud base was at 4200’ (11 am) and rising with 6/8 coverage with cloud tops at 5500. Quite unstable air.  Wind on ground was less than 10kt westerly.

[RFguy]

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/VHMSF/history/20231006/0330Z/YSCB/YARM/tracklog

 

Many permutations and combinations :

Pilot incapacitation ?

Flight  into IMC and rated /  IMC current ? (they all have autopilots) 

In flight fire ?

Parachute not successfully deployed  (too fast?)

Structural breakup (flying over Va in severe turb) ?

 

Va is 133 kts for at least one SR22 I POHed. at 3400 lbs.  That's ~ 127kts at my estimated weight.

Stall clean is about 70 kts.

 

autopilot disengages in severe turb.... so if you are in IMC AND severe  turbulence, that's a non autopilot combo.

https://jasonblair.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Cirrus-SR22-POH.pdf

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by RFguy

[kgwilson]

Veryt sad. Grandfather and 3 grandchildren. Condolences to the family and friends. ADSB data shows a steady climb out with fluctuating speed indicating some turbulence. Based on the photos of impact scene I think it will be very difficult to determine the cause.

[skippydiesel]

Isn't Dick Smiths airfield close to Gundaroo?

[Markdun]

Yep.  If it was an engine failure at 9500’ he would have easily glided to Dick Smiths place or to Currendooly or the other side of Lake George, or the quarter horse race track at Collector, or the hwy But the ADSB data shows the plane went down from 9400’ baro.

 

Glen, the track prior to the problem seems to indicate the AP was not engaged as the track meandered quite a bit…. Maybe it was not a GPS track AP but was on a heading. He lost some altitude just prior to the crash, then regained it, then terminal. My first thought was catastrophic structural failure, then perhaps a w&b issue (wife in back with one of the kids…& then unrecoverable stall & spin), but I agree with Glen that it could be flight into IMC and then a spin.  Seemed a very quick loss of 6500’.

 

Bad, the whole thing.

[facthunter]

How much cloud and what was the freezing level?  Nev

[red750]

2 hours ago, Markdun said:

(wife in back with one of the kids…

No mention of wife, 4 dead, pilot and 3 kids.

[RFguy]

Hi Mark, I would think unlikely to be structural failure, at least not the first cause, Va is 133 kts and Vchute is 133 kts. Maybe icingand or  flight into IMC,  then LOC, and too fast for the chute to be pulled.

It was very moist at altitude in that region.  yesterday, there were thick and dark cumulus allover that region. 

But given 3 kids lost their lives in an aircraft that should have been very safe, I am hesitant to speculate much further.  We'll need to read about  it....

As a parent I can only just imagine what the nightmare must be for others....\

Coming back- RAAUS go on about 'flying is so safe , a pilot in everyhouse' which I think is bollocks, flying is inherently hazardous. 

[Chris SS]

My money is on structural breakup.

 

From the ADSB data he was stable at 9500.  30 seconds later he was at 9300' at 550fpm descent. 25 seconds later he was at 9600 but already at a 3700fpm descent!  I suspect that a sudden updraft pushed them above 9600, followed by a strong pitch down to correct, and a spar or tail failure followed by instant incapacitation.  19 seconds later the plane was through 7300 descending at 9800fpm.

 

It will be interesting to see where the control surfaces are.

 

The lesson to be learned from early analysis - be weary of convective weather systems and dark cumulus!

 

[old man emu]

Here's the Canberra weather for 6/10/23 

That's a weird swirling of wind direction around the time of the flight.

 

 

My first thought was something like  a rotor, or mountain wave. The location of the impact, just west of Weereewa Lookout makes that a thought. A high ridge is located right along that western section of the lake, then the ground is a flat plain across the lake to the East. 

 

Obviously if someone has a plot of the track it would be useful to see.  

 

  

[kgwilson]

Towering CUs (if there were any) are extremely dangerous. Vertical winds of over 200 mph have been recorded in them. If one was entered inadvertently and at the airspeed of a Cirrus it would be at the core very quickly & at that point there is nothing that can be done if it is a powerful system. The system has control and structural failure the likely outcome.

[RFguy]

49 minutes ago, Chris SS said:

My money is on structural breakup.

I suspect that a sudden updraft pushed them above 9600, followed by a strong pitch down to correct, and a spar or tail failure followed by instant incapacitation. 

 

good catch that Chris on the 3600' decent,

--but given the reported speed was a long way below the Va, a sudden and extreme control input would only cause a stall.

The weak point in the data we have  here is that

1) we only have ground speed, 2) The data is sparse in the time domain, relative the the rate of the events. Maybe he was flying 140 indicated and only 110 ish ground.

 

[Markdun]

There were lenticular clouds over Mt Palerang ( 15nm south) earlier in the morning.  My view is that there were two different air masses: lower down light winds from the WNW, unstable and moist; higher up (over 6000’) winds from the SSW and stronger.  On my EFIS OAT at 5000’asl was 2C at 11 am.

 I’m told that turbo prop commuter services between Canberra and Sydney were stopped because of the severe turbulence.

[turboplanner]

1 minute ago, Markdun said:

There were lenticular clouds over Mt Palerang ( 15nm south) earlier in the morning.  My view is that there were two different air masses: lower down light winds from the WNW, unstable and moist; higher up (over 6000’) winds from the SSW and stronger.  On my EFIS OAT at 5000’asl was 2C at 11 am.

 I’m told that turbo prop commuter services between Canberra and Sydney were stopped because of the severe turbulence.

Would that have been available before he departed, or was it missed?

[RFguy]

any idea how to access the GAF  and NOTAM archives ?

 

You dont depart canberra without talking to ATC on several occassions ,  would they have had something to say ?

Edited October 7, 2023 by RFguy

[old man emu]

51 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

 My view is that there were two different air masses: lower down light winds from the WNW, unstable and moist; higher up (over 6000’) winds from the SSW

Something was sure moving through Canberra from midday to 1500.  Look at the wind directions: SSW to E then S over one hour. The wind speeds don't seem horrendous.

 

The MSL isobaric chart doesn't help much.

[facthunter]

You know something is happening because of the Kink in the isobars and it's under the influence of a  high pressure  system, so you have descending cold air mass.  Nev

[facthunter]

.... Which is usually more stable and the distance between them would not indicate High velocity winds either. Orographic effects could be involved. There's high country south  of Canberra.. IF an Airline is cancelling flights due turbulence ATC would certainly be aware of it. Traffic north of Canberra has to be slotted in with other from the West and South bound for Sydney and Newcastle. Nev

[turboplanner]

2 hours ago, RFguy said:

any idea how to access the GAF  and NOTAM archives ?

 

You dont depart canberra without talking to ATC on several occassions ,  would they have had something to say ?

They might; I was warned about a thunderstorm when I called "Ready" at Essendon, and because it was to the south and I was departing to the west I took the take off...........then the Tower directed me into the south for a Medivac aircraft departure..................The air was black and it was also blue - I had the CFI on board, so a few hours extra tuition.

 

Turbulence is advised on NAIPS and ATC would expect you to know, which is why I keep banging on about getting weather from NAIPS and not just a general app only.

[RFguy]

I always get my info from NAIPS directly.

Why - ?- because oz runways (android , anyway)  sometimes doesn't show updates. It absolutely cannot be relied upon... They are aware of this and are fixing it at the moment. From a software  developer perspective, the sorts of bugs I see, means it is not to be trusted. 

 

Anyway, it is a very sad outcome for an aircraft with a parachute.

[FlyBoy1960]

There is some chilling audio from Canberra tower and approach trying to contact them