why have there been so many accidents this year

[BrendAn]

i know i have posted similar questions before but i would have thought in this day and age less aircraft would be falling out of the sky.

 

[onetrack]

Accident events have peaks and troughs, they're not a steady figure. You can have a dozen crashes in a month, then none at all for 3 or 4 weeks. A wide range of factors affect the accident rate.

Pilots keep making the same errors - and IMO, because so many always appear to be acclaimed and highly experienced pilots, after the disaster - it appears that many became lax or complacent in their approach to dangerous conditions, and it finally caught up with them. In particular, CFIT's by "highly experienced and well-regarded" pilots indicates to me that they were regular risk takers, and that that risk-taking finally caught up with them.

[BrendAn]

4 minutes ago, onetrack said:

Accident events have peaks and troughs, they're not a steady figure. You can have a dozen crashes in a month, then none at all for 3 or 4 weeks. A wide range of factors affect the accident rate.

Pilots keep making the same errors - and IMO, because so many always appear to be acclaimed and highly experienced pilots, after the disaster - it appears that many became lax or complacent in their approach to dangerous conditions, and it finally caught up with them. In particular, CFIT's by "highly experienced and well-regarded" pilots indicates to me that they were regular risk takers, and that that risk-taking finally caught up with them.

yes, i find it odd that a lot of the accidents over the past few months involve highly experienced pilots.  as you say complacency may play a large part . 

[skippydiesel]

Speaking for myself - overconfidence is possibly the most insidious precursor to accidents.

 

In my case it took about 15 years & 900 + hrs but possibly the 10 years or so as an owner of a great handling/performing small aircraft,  that  I flew  out of a dodgy, one way, landing ground, set me up for a short string of stupide decisions, ending with a crash on landing, that should no have happened.

[Jabiru7252]

As the population ages more cars run into shops fronts because the drivers are so old, maybe we can expect much the same with planes? Just a thought.

[turboplanner]

People have been reporting accidents in CA, RPT, and from around the world where flying in under different regulations, or pretty much no regulations, training is poor etc. none of it really relevant to our recreational aviation, so it might seem like a lot of accidents. The statistics went down to near zero during the covid years, and you would have to expect some increase with pilots who just went straight back into action without a graduated process, in aircraft which had been standing for two years.

Pre- Covid the RA average was about 10 per year in Australia, and we have two more moths to go before we'll know this year's figures.

[Chris SS]

It’s the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon. This explains why ‘there have been so many crashes’ since the worst year on record, which was 1972.

[facthunter]

 Selective Perception and recent skill acquisition prominence are similar things. Humans also like to do things the easy way. They may cut corners when they  think they are clever enough to get away with it. I  ALWAYS do some kind of checklist. Hatches harness trim pitch etc. Nev

[Blueadventures]

14 hours ago, onetrack said:

Accident events have peaks and troughs, they're not a steady figure. You can have a dozen crashes in a month, then none at all for 3 or 4 weeks. A wide range of factors affect the accident rate.

Pilots keep making the same errors - and IMO, because so many always appear to be acclaimed and highly experienced pilots, after the disaster - it appears that many became lax or complacent in their approach to dangerous conditions, and it finally caught up with them. In particular, CFIT's by "highly experienced and well-regarded" pilots indicates to me that they were regular risk takers, and that that risk-taking finally caught up with them.

I do full D.I. and use checklist / reminder aide memoir to assist in preventing complaincy.  

[turboplanner]

Perhaps someone would be good enough to go on the RAA site and count the fatalities for 2022, and the 10 months of 2023 and then we'd know.

 

[BrendAn]

3 hours ago, turboplanner said:

Perhaps someone would be good enough to go on the RAA site and count the fatalities for 2022, and the 10 months of 2023 and then we'd know.

 

Well off you go.  You only have to browse the accidents thread.  But I am talking about all accidents in Australia not just raaus. There have been some highly experienced ga pilots lost this year as well.

[bushcaddy105]

Not just aviation. South Australia's road deaths so far this year are way above 2022 numbers, particularly motor cyclists. Significantly, the majority of country road deaths are of country drivers.

[BrendAn]

7 minutes ago, bushcaddy105 said:

Not just aviation. South Australia's road deaths so far this year are way above 2022 numbers, particularly motor cyclists. Significantly, the majority of country road deaths are of country drivers.

Pretty sure it's the same here in Victoria too.

[spenaroo]

added stress, less finances, less free time.

 

I have stopped flying because A.) I cant afford it. B.) I feel too stressed with work/home life

I have a "training flight" booked for my birthday this month -  it will just be to get up and fly around the coast with an instructor making sure I dont kill us both.

I know I'm not keeping up my skills.

and wouldn't be safe flying solo at the moment. haven't been up in 6 months

[red750]

Victorian Road Death Statistics.   TAC Stats.

 

2021                234

2022                241

2023  YTD      236   

[turboplanner]

40 minutes ago, bushcaddy105 said:

Not just aviation. South Australia's road deaths so far this year are way above 2022 numbers, particularly motor cyclists. Significantly, the majority of country road deaths are of country drivers.

Did the government get around to introducing the new speed limits for country roads they were talking about a few years ago? I did some research on the effects it would have on South East business, and it was going to affect a lot of people like stock agents, and sales people.

[BrendAn]

Just now, turboplanner said:

Did the government get around to introducing the new speed limits for country roads they were talking about a few years ago? I did some research on the effects it would have on South East business, and it was going to affect a lot of people like stock agents, and sales people.

why would that effect them, as in extra time on the road i guess.  

[BrendAn]

47 minutes ago, bushcaddy105 said:

Not just aviation. South Australia's road deaths so far this year are way above 2022 numbers, particularly motor cyclists. Significantly, the majority of country road deaths are of country drivers.

i read something a while back about men over 50  taking up motorcycling after 20 or 30 years without a bike being at high risk of accidents . maybe they should make a refresher course compulsory at some stage. i have had my bike license for over 30 years and hardly ever ridden one in my life.

[turboplanner]

27 minutes ago, BrendAn said:

why would that effect them, as in extra time on the road i guess.  

I went looking for the data; probably dropped the project when no SA country people (who'd appealed for assistance) wanted to make it a submission.

It may have been the July 2003 speed reduction on 1100 km of SA rural roads from 110 to 100.

10 km doesn't make a huge difference in trip time, but I remember looking at tradies who lived in Mount Gambier and were buiding hsoues in Penola, Robe, Bordertown etc. made a difference twice a day 5-7 days a week.

[turboplanner]

1 hour ago, spenaroo said:

added stress, less finances, less free time.

 

I have stopped flying because A.) I cant afford it. B.) I feel too stressed with work/home life

I have a "training flight" booked for my birthday this month -  it will just be to get up and fly around the coast with an instructor making sure I dont kill us both.

I know I'm not keeping up my skills.

and wouldn't be safe flying solo at the moment. haven't been up in 6 months

That's actually a good way to keep your interest until you get to the point where you can fly enough to pack back up on all the performance standards.

Another, more expensive way is to fly 20 mins - 30 mins per week.

[BrendAn]

i have counted 15 aviation accidents so far this year in australia including the 2 military accidents.

these are events with fatalities and injuries, i have not counted all the minor accidents.

well over a dozen deaths .  so maybe the accident count is down a bit, but fatalities would be up i think after 3 accidents with multiple loss of life.

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by BrendAn

[bushcaddy105]

15 minutes ago, turboplanner said:

I went looking for the data; probably dropped the project when no SA country people (who'd appealed for assistance) wanted to make it a submission.

It may have been the July 2003 speed reduction on 1100 km of SA rural roads from 110 to 100.

10 km doesn't make a huge difference in trip time, but I remember looking at tradies who lived in Mount Gambier and were buiding hsoues in Penola, Robe, Bordertown etc. made a difference twice a day 5-7 days a week.

Some roads were dropped from 110 to 100Kph. One local one was the Goyder highway from Crystal Brook to Gulnare. Caused a ruckus, until independent MP Geoff Brock made it an election platform to restore the status quo.

He won, and achieved his promise. Have to remember, though, SA's roads are all 100Kph UNLESS signed otherwise. The otherwise is usually only national routes.

[turboplanner]

35 minutes ago, bushcaddy105 said:

Some roads were dropped from 110 to 100Kph. One local one was the Goyder highway from Crystal Brook to Gulnare. Caused a ruckus, until independent MP Geoff Brock made it an election platform to restore the status quo.

He won, and achieved his promise. Have to remember, though, SA's roads are all 100Kph UNLESS signed otherwise. The otherwise is usually only national routes.

While trying to find what I worked on I came across the news from a couple of weeks ago that from December 1, 2023, there will be a speed limit on SA beaches of 40 km/hr, and 25 km/hr within 50 metres of pedestrians.

That will kill Long Beach at Robe, and the Beachport Ocean Beach runs north to Robe and south which currently gives a boost to the coastal towns.

[onetrack]

The W.A. road toll has been relatively flat for the last 10 years. However, the variation between the metro road toll and the country road toll is quite substantial. The reasons are simple;

 

1. Higher speeds in the rural and remote regions, resulting in worse crash outcomes.

2. Crash victims are often not found in time, nor have someone try to resuscitate them in time, due to delays in rescuers getting to them.

3. Failure to wear seat belts (because there's no cops around!)

4. Driving drunk. 

5. Driving whilst distracted (texting)

6. Driving whilst excessively tired

7. Medical episode (drops dead at the wheel due to stress of long period behind the wheel).

 

Of all of the above, the cops have been staggered to find a substantial majority of fatalities in the rural and remote regions were caused by not wearing seatbelts!

 

https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/road-safety-commission/road-fatalities-year-date

 

As I said above - people continue to kill themselves in precisely the same manner, over and over again, failing to heed safe procedures, and to make a habit of following them rigidly.

Familiarity breeds complacency - "She'll be right, I know this terrain like the back of my hand" - as the individual takes a shortcut against a published safety procedure..

"I can get through this cloudy patch, it's only a thin layer, and it's not the first time I've flown in a little bit of IMC".

"No point in trying to spot other traffic, you can't see them anyway, and besides, there's no-one within a bulls roar of us".

"That other aircraft's gone, isn't it?" (said without making 100% sure it's gone).

"I'm sure we can beat that cold front rolling in".

"I need to be home tonight, I've got a big day tomorrow, and a lot of people to see".

 

CFIT by a highly experienced pilot is not only often unexplainable, it's nearly always as a result of overconfidence, lax following of rules and safety procedures - and a pattern of risk-taking.

The worst outcomes are where total aircraft destruction is the result, and the reasons behind the crash are shrouded forever in mystery.

[onetrack]

The latest ATSB stats only cover the period from 2010 to 2019, so it's difficult to determine if there really has been a major upswing in aviation crashes recently. I tend to believe the crash rate is relatively static over a period of time.

 

https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/2020/ar-2020-014