4.11.23 Cloncurry light plane crash

[trailer]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-04/light-plane-crashes-near-cloncurry/103065708?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other

[onetrack]

Reports are coming in that it was a firefighting Birddog, a 275 Gulfstream 695A Jetprop Commander 1000. The crash is deemed "unsurvivable", and the 3 crew on board are believed to have perished.

 

 

[FlyBoy1960]

Gulfstream Aerospace Jetprop Commander (twin-turboprop)

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/BDOG370/history/20231104/0045Z/YTWB/YBMA
 

Decent of more than 10,000 fpm at one stage.  It dropped like a rock ?

Edited November 4, 2023 by FlyBoy1960

[onetrack]

I believe there has been an error in media ID, and the aircraft was not operating as Birddog 275, but as Birddog 370. It appears to be VH-HPY.

One eyewitness reported sighting a plume of smoke around 30kms away from the Landsborough Hwy. The actual crash site has not yet been located, but one would expect it won't take long in that scrubby, relatively open terrain.

 

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/queensland-police-assist-in-search-for-missing-light-plane-at-mckinlay/news-story/c8de8f716878d377dc4cec839704f828

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by onetrack

[rankamateur]

12 minutes ago, onetrack said:

I believe there has been an error in media ID, and the aircraft was not operating as Birddog 275, but as Birddog 370. It appears to be VH-HPY.

 

370 appears to be VH-ATF though!

[onetrack]

The firefighting call signs change on a regular basis, it appears.

 

https://www.nafc.org.au/call-signs/

[rankamateur]

This shows VH-ATF as BD 275 so that could be where the confusion came from.

[onetrack]

Emergency services have confirmed 3 deceased on the crashed Gulfstream 695A Commander 1000. RIP, those three gallant crew.

[red750]

[onetrack]

I can soon see a number of people re-reading this CAA "Aero Commander Chronicle", which documents the Aero Commanders very chequered history, as regards faulty wing design, and the number of Commander wing structural failures.

 

https://www.scribd.com/document/265895944/Aero-Commander-Structural-Failures

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by onetrack

[turboplanner]

Well it hasn't been confirmed yet whether it crashed in a fire zone or was just travelling or whether the wing failed, but given that fire services will have to start some safety analysis on the number of deaths on airborne fire assets and whether it's all worth the risk, I would imagine some commanders will have to get someone reading very fast.

 

There is a point where it's not acceptable to kill workers to save assets with no firebreaks or fires deliberately lit etc.

[rankamateur]

Given that it was doing 223 knots at 28050 ft in a straight line then suddenly decelerated less than 100 knots while losing 4000 feet doesn't seem like normal fire monitoring activity. It had a return flight to Townsville logged for later that afternoon. 

[red750]

From Flightaware.

 

[onetrack]

To me, all the signs of a wing spar failure, and an in-flight loss of a wing are written all over this one - but of course this is all pure speculation until the wreckage is fully examined, and evidence and photos are released.

The Aero Commanders have form when it comes to numerous wing spar design failures, and numerous wing spar strengthening additions, that have all turned out to only produce more problems.

And when the original records can't even be found as to how many spar strengthening brackets were made out of 4140 steel, and how many were made from stainless steel, it just gets worse.

Then the lack of understanding over many years, and from many designers, as to the problems associated with galvanic corrosion when aluminium and steel are in close contact with each other, is astounding.

Plus the discovery of the unusual grain structure, of only some of the aluminium, in only some the wing spars, lends a whole new meaning to "variable factors".

Then add in nearly 40 years of flying with this particular aircraft, and the adverse factors really start to stack up.

[facthunter]

It looks as though it's had an "UPSET" earlier in the Fight that exceeded a lot of limits and resulted in total failure later (as well it would).   Nev

[rankamateur]

5 hours ago, facthunter said:

It looks as though it's had an "UPSET" earlier in the Fight that exceeded a lot of limits and resulted in total failure later (as well it would).   Nev

Its logged speed was over 260knots but it didn't seem to exceed 223 in the later part of its final flight. Are you suggesting that it was limping to its destination?

Edited November 5, 2023 by rankamateur
Correction

[facthunter]

Strong possibility. Any plane subject to severe overload or a hard landing has to have inspections of relevant parts of the structure. or get a permit to fly (No pax) to a place where it can be done. You'd have to be very lucky to get one for that  AIRCRAFT in those circumstances Limping might not be the best word as it flew normal speed and levels till something happened.   Nev

[rankamateur]

19 hours ago, facthunter said:

Strong possibility. Any plane subject to severe overload or a hard landing has to have inspections of relevant parts of the structure. or get a permit to fly (No pax) to a place where it can be done. You'd have to be very lucky to get one for that  AIRCRAFT in those circumstances Limping might not be the best word as it flew normal speed and levels till something happened.   Nev

The something happened north of Dulacca much nearer to Toowoomba than to Mount Isa, which may have been a better place to limp to. While they reacted to the something, they maintained near perfect track while losing a whole heap of altitude and airspeed rising over 300 knots.

[facthunter]

The speed will be projected speed along track NOT airspeed which we are used to seeing. A near vertical dive would register low as you don't progress along the surface much.  Nev

[onetrack]

It'd be good to acquire further information regarding the crash wreckage, to see if the plane broke up in flight, or crashed largely in one piece. However, I think we'll have to await the ATSB report, the crash site is no doubt located in a remote spot, and I can't see any media getting out there - it's just too remote a region, and too low a general interest, as regards news, to warrant them sending out journalists.

[rankamateur]

11 minutes ago, facthunter said:

The speed will be projected speed along track NOT airspeed which we are used to seeing. A near vertical dive would register low as you don't progress along the surface much.  Nev

So 313 knots projected on the flight radar track may have been two and a half times that given the sudden altitude loss that is accompanied?  That being the case, why would you fly on for your destination rather than divert to Roma or return to Toowoomba?

[facthunter]

I don't wish to speculate on that but I'm sure we're not the only ones to notice it. . The 2 1/2 times would  be too far to endure structurally. I'd go with significantly more but not enough to break it at that stage obviously as it continued on after that.   Nev

[Thruster88]

On 05/11/2023 at 11:06 AM, facthunter said:

It looks as though it's had an "UPSET" earlier in the Fight that exceeded a lot of limits and resulted in total failure later (as well it would).   Nev

The first descent and climb back to altitude was very obviously under control. The data shows at the end a gradual reduction of speed while maintaining altitude and track perfectly over a minute or two. Aircraft on autopilot with a reduction of power in one or both engines, a stall most likely but why? 

[pmccarthy]

A cabin pressure problem followed or caused by an erratic engine? Autopilot recovered the first stall but not the second?

[KRviator]

13 hours ago, Thruster88 said:

The first descent and climb back to altitude was very obviously under control. The data shows at the end a gradual reduction of speed while maintaining altitude and track perfectly over a minute or two. Aircraft on autopilot with a reduction of power in one or both engines, a stall most likely but why? 

That first descent had me wondering too, but -HPY had the same vertical profile in a very similar geographic area a week earlier on a TWB-ISA flight, so it was intentional both times. Once we could be forgiven for linking it to the accident, but not twice.

Here's the accident flight:

And here's a week earlier - same area, same descent, albeit not quite as quick.