Global Climate - are you Cool, Hot, or dont give a Hoot ?

[Guest High Plains Drifter]

An issue that will affect all aviators............

 

Thought we might start with Al Gores An Inconvenient Truth.

 

Al aparently doesnt want to publicly debate the claims he made in the movie.

 

Heres a little clip of what the debate might look like -

 

 

 

[Ultralights]

have a look at a documentary called The great global warming swindle. the original founder of greenpeace is involved with it..

 

personally, i dont disagree with the global warming theory, the climate is Constantly changing, has been since the dawn of time, and will continue to change. weather we are the direct cause of this, i dont think we are..

 

the climate has been significantly warmer in the past that it is now, but even high school physics doesnt agree with most stuff, CO2, is a heavy gas! and sinks quite rapidly to the ground, not only that, it only makes up 0.01% of the atmosphere, Water vapour is the biggest contributor to the greanhouse effect, and makes up a significant proportion of the atmospheric make up.

 

i dont believe a carbon tax will change anything, except make a few people rich, and i see it as the worlds first Global tax.

 

though i am all for clean air technology, and a reduction in pollution, the air today is the cleanest i have ever seen it, i have pictures of flying in syd in the early 90's and on a hot summer day, the visibility was atrocious in smog. that doesn't happen anymore. so a cleaner environment can only be a good thing...

 

though i dont believe CO2 has anything to do with global climate CHANGE... (not warming)

 

 

[Galpin]

Good for you ultralights. The so-called global warming, climate change debate, if you can call it that, is a swindle. Take a look at:

 

https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/home/

 

The fellow behind this is very politically incorrect when it comes to climate change. It is well worth a read.

 

 

[Yenn]

I really don't know if we are causing climate change or not, but what I do know is that the human race is becoming a plague in the world. The population is rising everywhere, good land is being turned into housing estates, and all the low land is being eyed off for reservoirs to store water for city dwellers. Our politicians have not a hope in hell of fixing the problem. Here in Qld we have a water shortage in the South East (Brisbane and gold Coast) which has everyone on water restrictions. At the same time we have the premier calling for more land to be released for subdivisions.

 

I really doubt their sanity, do when they talk of carbon tax and global warming I think they are just trying to con us. I have never seen a description of what carbon tax is, who pays and where it goes, but I guess we pay and the government pockets the money.

 

 

[Guest extralite]

i think that that many people would stay clear of the topic altogether as its very easy for any discussion to get over-heated (cough).

 

As for the "documentary" called "The Great Global Warming Swindle", it was well publicized at the time that many of the scientists interviewed said their comments were taken and edited in such a way to distort what they were saying. For example,

 

Professor Carl Wunsch on the film in which he was presented as a global warming skeptic:

 

"I am angry because they completely misrepresented me. My views were distorted by the context in which they placed them. I was misled as to what it was going to be about. I was told about six months ago that this was to be a programme about how complicated it is to understand what is going on. If they had told me even the title of the programme, I would have absolutely refused to be on it. I am the one who has been swindled."

 

I think there was even legal action taken. Anyway, the inaccuracies can be read here amongst other places:

 

http://www.medialens.org/alerts/07/0313pure_propaganda_the.php

 

Its such a complicated issue that its impossible to grasp as a layman, we have to accept those of those that study the field full time. And, in the last few years, even the last few skeptical scientists are now worried.

 

Its interesting if you type into Google "Artic ice free". the first return from an article written in 2005 states "Seasonal Ice free artic in 100 years". The next hit written in 2006 "artic ice free by 2040". The third , written this year "Artic may be ice free in summer by 2013". And thats the sad fact with the artic. It happening way faster than the pessimists expected. You can see satellite maps of the ice in the artic in summer over the last 10 years, and thats hard to refute. Hence the race by Russia and others to lay claim to the oil fields being opened up. Ironic.

 

Common sense says to me that the artic does not melt in 50 years from solar fluctuations alone. But it is complicated. The antartic i understand is receiving more snow in its interior and getting thicker. At face value this seems great. Unfortunately of course the reason is it is becoming warm enough to snow.

 

If 99% of scientists said "global emissions do not affect the temperature of the planet" then great, most would be happy to accept that result with little question. But the reverse is true, it happens to be bad news, and unless you have innate bias or know something that the experts do not, then an unbiased thinker should accept that finding. I could find an expert who would tell me Elvis is alive, and if thats the answer i was desperate for, i would quote him, despite the vast majority of experts who said he is not.

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

No matter how hard some people shout when calling it a "swindle", the matter of fact is that there is a consensus amongst scientists that global warming beyond historical expectations most likely caused by our CO2 output is real. You won't get this from normal media, where articles are 50/50, but in the peer-reviewed scientific publications it is close to 100%.

 

Besides, even if *most* of it is the natural cycle and we are only adding a bit to that, changing our ways might stretch out doomsday an extra 100 years, that would be a good thing. (it might even give us enough time to find a permanent solution!)

 

Plus we *are* running out of oil. Of course we can move ourselves using electricity generated by sustainable means, but how are we going to make all our plastics and other products we use oil in?

 

If we clean up our act in base load energy where it is easy (i.e.: nuclear, solar, electric cars, etc.) we can continue to burn oil where it would be harder to use anything else, like our favorite hobby.

 

To go back to the original post, why should Al Gore debate in public? He is not a scientist, he is a reporter. He is not qualified to debate this stuff with anyone.

 

 

[Guest High Plains Drifter]

Apparently the climate scientists dont all agree...

 

...a new paper that will appear in the "Journal of Climate." The papers lead author, Dr. Roy W. Spencer, a principal research scientist at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, believes the work is the first step in demonstrating why climate models produce too much global warming.

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080611184722.htm

 

And I thought they had it all worked out :ah_oh:

 

To 'cut to the chase' here,

 

I've got a question for the 'humans cause global warming' true believers.

 

Why are you flying recreational aviation aircraft ? ............ If somebody truely beleived that the 'human caused global warming' claims were true, then they would not do anything that unnecessarily contributed to 'Global Warming' :raise_eyebrow:

 

I'm thinking, unless you are a farmer using an ultralight for farm work, then you should not fly! ....thats if you are a true believer.

 

Personaly, I dont think the science is even remotely reliable yet and would be more then happy to debate this issue further :)

 

 

[Guest extralite]

"Why are you flying recreational aviation aircraft ?"

 

because we enjoy it, just like you? people that accept the science do not go and live in a cave to minimize emissions. ideally, the market would factor in the total environmental price of any consumption, but that wont happen in my opinion. w

 

its worth reading "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" by Jarrad Diamond, author of "Guns Germs and Steel". it is NOT about global warming, more about the history of socities that failed to manage their environments. it is hard to do that without being a little fatalistic. but we live in hope :)

 

in virtually all closed systems, such as Easter Island, Greenland Norse etc..humans have utilized their environment down to the last tree and by doing so starved themselves into extinction. now that the earth as a whole is a closed system...well.....

 

 

[Guest J430]

CO2 and Global warming are, are ....well..... a crock

 

ULTRALIGHTS i think you should take it upon yourself to educate the masses here!

 

Aand for those who dont think the folk had their stories represented correctly have a listen to this local fella, and his story is complete. whats more he is actually qualified to comment!

 

 

As for the stupid Aussie of the Year who things we should consider pumping sulphur into the atmosphere :hittinghead:

 

J:wave:

 

 

[kevinfrost]

Global what?

 

Early cultures lived within the constraints of seasons and the envirment for tens of thousands of years.With agriculture and industrialization we have tried to change the enviorment to suit our requirments out of necessity or greed. I see modern man as the virus of this planet, wherever he is everthing is dying around him and I'm as guilty as the next bloke because I don't want to give up the love of flying among other things. We better enjoy while we can kiddies because not far down the track we're going to have to justify the use of fuel. Dirt bikes, jet skis and recreational aircraft will not have priority.Just think how cheap aircraft will be.

 

As far as global warming goes, look up global dimming. That is frightning.

 

If we all lived to be 500 we woud be held accountable for our actions but seeing we only live to about 70. "TO HELL WITH IT LETS GO FOR IT"

 

Rev Kev:sorry:

 

 

[Downunder]

All the worlds problems in one word....... OVERPOPULATION

 

Nothing will get better or stabilize until this is addressed.

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

Why are you flying recreational aviation aircraft ? ............ If somebody truely beleived that the 'human caused global warming' claims were true, then they would not do anything that unnecessarily contributed to 'Global Warming' :raise_eyebrow:

Because probably 90% (if not more) of it is caused by daily activities like generating electricity and transporting ourselves and the goods we consume. Giving up a few - or even all - luxuries is not going to have the desired effect.

If someone would sell me an electric car to get to work in, I would juice it up with solar panels on top of my house. Everyone can do that and it will make a huge difference. Some of us not going flying for an hour or two every week or even not boarding a jet to go on holiday is pointless compared to that.

 

We don't have to give up the things we enjoy to stop our co2 output, we just need to change the way we do things we don't enjoy anyway!

 

 

[Guest J430]

bass

 

CO2 has NOTHING..... repeat NOTHING to do with it. I am stunned at the lack of basic science that people have, and they believe this stuff. It started out as propoganda by the Thatcher goverment during the coal miners dispute. She was not going to be screwed over again by the unions and wanted to go nuclear power, she tipped in millions of pounds to the science professors to come up with a result to prove coal fired power stations were evil. The closest they could come up with and if argued well enough that it would be hard for the everage joe to be fooled was CO2.

 

What controls our climate is water vapour (the most significant greenhouse gas there is) and what controls that ..... the Sun. We have no say in it. Why do weather and cimatologists study the suns spots and solar flares so much???? Because that is what has such a huge impact on the earths weather and temperature.

 

When H2O vapour increases due to more solar energy , more energy is reflected then the earth cools, then there is less cloud and water vapour, so around the cycle goes. Now the earths ocean temperatures go in cycles that lag behind (thermal inertia) and what happens then..... Oceans warm up and expell CO2, when they cool down they absorb CO2. Now is it not strange that the human produced content is like a pin prick on an elephant when you compare the CO2 in the atmosphere and the amounts that are controlled by ocean temps.

 

No the greenies and the media do not want to explain that and why.... because they would have so much egg on their faces it would not be funny. Of course the politicians would have no chance if they went against that debate.

 

For those that have not seen the 4 parts of the Bob Carter presentation, do it now, there is a very "plain english" esplanation to what has been going on. You need to sit through all 4 of them so you can be sure not to take anything out of context.

 

Cheers

 

J

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

And Bob knows this for sure, how? All any scientist, either sceptic or believer, has at the moment is correlation. Unfortunately, correlation is never solid evidence. CO2 is just one of the things that has historically risen with higher temperatures and CO2 has shot up since the beginning of the industrial age and temperature has gone right with it. It is a good bet they are related.

 

But not the only bet; solar activity is a major contributor for sure also.

 

It hard to describe anything as a pin-prick; sometimes all you need is a small catalyst to set off a major change.

 

I prefer to err on the side of caution. Not to mention the fact that already people are dying in their thousands (millions?) every single year (cancer, respiratory disease, general poisoning of our organs) from the amount of crap we put into the environment. But we don't care about that because overall the average life span of humans is increasing regardless. And so "the greenies" want to move away from fossil burning but don't want nuclear either, because "it is so dangerous".

 

And so the cycle goes on...

 

 

[Guest asic45]

If you get sick, chances are you would visit a doctor. If your sink gets blocked, you would be likely to consult a plumber. If you observe a world wide warming phenomena, you might sensibly consult scientists who study climate, and If you do that, you will find a complete concensus amongst them that global warming exists, and that humans are contributing to it.

 

On the other hand, you may not give a stuff about the future, and want only to consume and exploit as much as possible as quickly as possible. In that case it you can quote the small disagreements between reputable scientists, and take historical data out of context, and use this information to justify your behaviour.

 

The real inconvenient truth is that human population growth will doom us all to a stone age future, and that while we are beholden to bizarre cults which even today encourage us to breed, the chances of us controlling population numbers is small.

 

The good news is that most of us forum members will be dead before the worst happens. Yay!

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

human population growth will doom us all to a stone age future, and that while we are beholden to bizarre cults which even today encourage us to breed

And the major ones of these cults teach that suffering is good, so that all work out according to plan then!

According to our friendly state government, South Australia needs to double its population or perish! Luckily, there is a solution to providing all these extra people with water: desalination, all powered by coal fueled generators and spewing a salty brine back into the ocean. Yay!

 

(The brine we could find a way to deal with, but for <insert favourite deity here>'s sake, can we pulleaze go nuclear to power it all? We are sitting on the worlds largest uranium reserve for crying out loud!)

 

 

[Guest J430]

Bass

 

You are quite right about one thing about temperature and CO2.....one went up then the other....... But it was the temperature that went up first, CO2 lagged well behind. CO2 did not cause it.

 

What caused the temperature to rise, solar activity! And Greenhouse gasses!!! yes those nasty green house gases. So how about we stop this natural process of warming and cooling....... anyone seen the movie ICE AGE? It will not be that much fun I am pretty sure of that!

 

J

 

 

[Yenn]

A ths reminds me of when I was a kid growing up on the farm. We would have 2 cats, which bred more like rabbits, in a year or so we would have thirty cats, another year 50 cats. Then they would get cat flu and we would be left with 2 survivors to start all over again. Is that the way the human race is going, and has it all happened before?

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

J, you have to take into account that at the start of our CO2 output increase, temperatures were rising at the end of "the little ice age" so naturally it would seem CO2 lagged behind, as it has in that past in the natural cycle.

 

However, since then, temperatures have risen much more than expected and are well above pre-little ice age level. At the same time, current CO2 levels are much higher than historically expected for our current temperature. Time will tell if this actually is going to drag temperatures up even further, but I'd like to not take the risk.

 

 

[Guest J430]

Something tells me you have not watched the youtube video, and did not studdy the graphs closely enough.

 

NASA have been suggesting that other planets in our solar system are warming too... :confused: ...what do all the planets in our solar system have in common?

 

Cars? Nope.

 

Aeroplanes? Nope.

 

Coal fired power stations? Nope.

 

Hang on I'll remember it in a minute...it is on the tip of my tongue

 

J

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

Yes, the sun is getting warmer (both because of age and the sun spot cycle) but again, there is consensus that it is not enough to warm the earth by as much as it has been warming. In fact, there is serious doubt sun cooling alone triggered the little ice age: http://www.livescience.com/environment/070312_solarsys_warming.html

 

 

[mlpinaus]

Thank you for the link to the youtube "paper" :thumb_up:. Most illuminating, and basic

 

science. Why the hell did the information have to come from an aviation forum, not

 

the newspaper? Then our paper is the Advertiser.... Nuff said.

 

regards

 

Marcus

 

 

[Ultralights]

what about the bigger picture, we are living on the very thin crust of a massive ball of Molten rock! heated externally also by a star that is millions of times larger than the planet!

 

i remember a quote in a Stephen hawking book, "image the earth is an apple. if you cut the apple in half, the thickness of the layer of skin, represents the total thicknes of the earths crust and atmosphere.the rest of the apple is molten rock, now hold this apple 1.5 inch from a large light bulb, this represents the suns influence.

 

now just where does the 0.001% CO2 in the atmosphere come into influencing the surface temperate of the apple?

 

also i think the time scale has been greatly exaggerated, it only takes humans on average 1 yr to adjust to a new climate, just ask those moving from the UK to Aus! so im sure a temp increase of 1 deg over homw many hundreds of years, will have No impact on our lifestyle. the only reason humans are so prolific on this planets is our natural ability to adapt to all but the most extreme environments.

 

not only that, a few weeks ago, i took my kayak out and paddled up port hacking, and noticed very old tide and wave erosion evident in the sandstone a good 50 ft above current levels!

 

on a lighter note, if rising temps are such a worry, why does everyone head to warmer climates for holidays?

 

 

[skybum]

I am not going to get started!

 

If the radicals would just get out of the way and let the science have a go, everything would settle itself out.

 

LIES, DAMN LIES and STATISTICS!

 

 

[Guest J430]

The fact is we are getting cooler...... despite increased CO2.

 

Stop pandering to the radicals and the general media.

 

remember the old saying from the Nazi's, "The bigger the lie, the more you tell it, the more they believe it!"

 

If only people stopped using flawed computer modells and stopped feeding the corrupt data into them.

 

One case in point are the temperatures being recorded in weather stations in the US, once sited 5 miles from town and in the bush, once accurate. 50 years later they are still in the same place un moved at all. These same stations are definately reading higher temperatures and an average that would line up with some of the BS the media pump into the masses. One catch, that same weather station which was once in the shade of a tree 5 miles out of twon is now in a university car park surrouded by bitumen. So tell me where you think the data came from????

 

I am probably going to be dragged into this debate more and more, but for goodness sakes go check out some FACTS not stuff fed to the masses by the media, after all we know how accurate they are when reporting aviation matters!:hittinghead:

 

J:thumb_up: