Mazda Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Good points. However "qualified" people still get it wrong. Many ATSB reports have no recommendations, and some of the recommendations would not prevent the accident, just make it easier to find out what went wrong. Even good recommendations may not be implemented. A very detailed report seemed to have discovered what happened - but nowhere in the report did it even hint at why that might have happened. That is my point. For the next couple of years there might be nothing, while people wait for an official report. If we can learn something from this terrible accident, surely it would be better to learn sooner rather than later. How many circuits at Moorabbin could be flown in 2 years? How many circuits in Australia with student pilots could happen in 2 years?
BLA82 Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I was under the impression that these forums were to discuss scenarios so we can all learn, I believe you have taken this thread way to far Bendorn. You have valid points but as it has been said how many circuits can be flown in two years. All the reply's have been objective and in no way distatefull or disrespectfull and FAR FROM HARMFULL. We can all learn from this and the more comments that get passed the more we can learn. Maybe even if some of the suggestions havent been correct they might be relevant to a situation we could find ourselves in oneday and hopefully it will help foster a better outcome My sincerest sympathy to the family and friends of the pilot who paid the ultimate price and my thoughts are with them.
Guest basscheffers Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 What if you were learning at moorabin right now, about to go on your first solo tomorrow?? wouldn't you like to hear from people that can give educated opinions as to the possible scenarios that lead to the tragedy, thereby being forarmed against a similar fate becoming you??...its no good in 2 years time learning about the causes that might save you tomorrow... I think that is a valid point; I have at least been reminded to be more careful about tracking centerline upwind - even if this had nothing to do with the cause of this accident. I don't mind doing some speculation myself - did one of the planes involved swap runways just before and made the mistake of flying the circuit in the wrong direction? Not likely, but just thinking it might have been a cause makes me realise I should always think twice before making that first turn. Like Dubya famously said: "our enemies never stop think about ways to hurt us - and neither do we." Seriously, though: I say speculate all you want. Weather the things you speculate were the cause of this particular accident is irrelevant but it does get you thinking about the things that could cause you to get hurt some day.
Guest High Plains Drifter Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Yeah, ... I'm yet to learn anything of value from this thread, though I guess there will be some experts who will tell me exactly what the problem was...
motzartmerv Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 HPD, well as they say ya can't teach an old dog new tricks...still think midairs don't happen??...
BLA82 Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Yeah, ... I'm yet to learn anything of value from this thread, though I guess there will be some experts who will tell me exactly what the problem was... HPD you are so quick to judge when you want to but when you have somthing to say we should all listen apparently
Guest Bendorn Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Don't get me wrong... I was under the impression that these forums were to discuss scenarios so we can all learn, I believe you have taken this thread way to far Bendorn. You have valid points but as it has been said how many circuits can be flown in two years. All the reply's have been objective and in no way distatefull or disrespectfull and FAR FROM HARMFULL. We can all learn from this and the more comments that get passed the more we can learn. Maybe even if some of the suggestions havent been correct they might be relevant to a situation we could find ourselves in oneday and hopefully it will help foster a better outcomeMy sincerest sympathy to the family and friends of the pilot who paid the ultimate price and my thoughts are with them. I agree with discussion 100%, please don't get me wrong. It's not about the thread either. I never said anyones replies were disrespectful or harmfull. I'm simply suggesting that some people (the minority) should be careful in what they write and stick to the facts as they know them. There have been many threads about incidents where people have given their views on what they think caused the accident when there was absolutely no foundations for their theories. I get frustrated by these as I 'm sure everyone can sense. Talk, Discuss, Examine over and over again that's how we learn and pray we don't get into the same situation. There will be a time for theories, opinions and "What I would have done....." Surely not the day after when all the facts are not known........... Sorry that this has gone off the original topic. I'll say no more.
BLA82 Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I agree with discussion 100%, please don't get me wrong. It's not about the thread either. I never said anyones replies were disrespectful or harmfull. I'm simply suggesting that some people (the minority) should be careful in what they write and stick to the facts as they know them. There have been many threads about incidents where people have given their views on what they think caused the accident when there was absolutely no foundations for their theories. I get frustrated by these as I 'm sure everyone can sense.Talk, Discuss, Examine over and over again that's how we learn and pray we don't get into the same situation. There will be a time for theories, opinions and "What I would have done....." Surely not the day after when all the facts are not known........... Sorry that this has gone off the original topic. I'll say no more. Understood and agree, sorry about the miss communication Bendorn:closed:
motzartmerv Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Bendorn, when ya put it like that, i agree...100%...:thumb_up:...good stuff
Guest High Plains Drifter Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I agree with Bendorn. I'm a reformed 'speculator' myself, did'nt think who might be reading - close relative looking for answers getting more upset. HPD, well as they say ya can't teach an old dog new tricks...still think midairs don't happen??... motzartmerv, I dont recall making any statement that "midairs don't happen" - I did comment a while ago what the main factors were in the majority of midairs.
Guest pelorus32 Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I wonder if Merv is confusing a post I made some time ago. I said in that post that spontaneous structural failures are so rare as to be largely irrelevant. In respect of midairs I think that they are all too common. Regards Mike
Flyer Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Hi All Some good points have been raised sofar and some not so good ones as well. Something to remember… we choose a hobby and/or a career that is intolerant of fools, ignorance and stupidity Quote J430 “This may not be the case however a timely reminder about runway centreline tracking and being precise, even at a single runway location, so others expect you to be where you say you are.” Couldn’t agree more…. Quote Macnoz “We do it I believe so as to be more self aware if the same could / should happen to ourselves. Those of you (no offence intended avi8or72 or anyone) who object to the debate – well why did you read the thread. You probably knew about the terrible loss of life already and I imagine come here wondering why why why.” Have to agree here. I knew that the thread would be alive when I got home from work and I sure wanted to know what was going on….. Quote Flyer40 “These three simple rules could work; 1. Say nothing disparaging about the victims. 2. Show appropriate sensitivity to the family and friends of the victims (remember they may be on this forum). 3. Do not make unofficial/unverified assertions about causation.” 1. Unfortunately a language barrier may be to blame. To bring this rule in would stifle debate. By talking about it, we become aware that there may be language barriers. 2. Couldn’t agree more….. 3. Agreed. Lets have a look at what and unofficial/unverified assertion about causation is…….it is called an opinion. Quote Bendorn “Comments, opinions etc should only be voiced when the OFFICIAL investigation has been completed. Then open it to the forum for comment. By all means quote newspaper reports as that is their job. Keep the rest to yourself until the time is right.” Absolutely disagree in the strongest possible way. Sofar I have been re alerted to maintaining centerline on take off and that there may be a language barrier out there, so I need to be more careful. It has also been reiterated to me that GAAP control provides information, not separation. Would I have got that if the discussion had been shut down for 2 years?? Quote Bendorn ”Was I there? My opinion is based on 2 so so quality black and white photos and bits and pieces from the newspaper, and we know what they're like. Is that informed? No where near it? How qualified am I to give my opinion? 1/10” I think you are very qualified to give an opinion Bendorn. It is your opinion, right, wrong or indifferent. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion. It is not a fact, nor can it be taken as a fact. From the Wikipedia. Definition of an opinion. An opinion is a person's ideas and thoughts towards something. It is an assessment, judgment or evaluation of something. An opinion is not a fact, because opinions are either not falsifiable, or the opinion has not been proven or verified. If it later becomes proven or verified, it is no longer an opinion, but a fact. Mazda, Motza and BLA82 all make valid points about the debate. :thumb_up: I’ve jumped on my hobby horse a bit here because I think some people have become a little thin skinned of late, to the point of me being flamed in the jokes section with regard to a copper joke. This thread is based on opinion, and it is just that, opinion. The facts that I’ve seen sofar is Maintain center line on takeoff ,there are language barriers out there and GAAP towers don’t provide separation. Lets get back to the discussion. Flame suit on….. Phil
Guest J430 Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Phil Agreed :thumb_up: No need for flame suit, I have the fire retardent foam truck at the ready! Unfortunately there are some who would like life all wrapped up in cotton wool, but the harsh facts of life are unavoidable. I am glad you have brought up the reported language barrier issue...... I would have been banned if I had! This is a very definite problem, not saying this was a result of ut could well have been. I could tell you stories of JQ mates going into Avalon and the students there give them no end of grief. As much as we bagged the ICAO english testing, because we mostly do not need it, you can see why it is being done. J:wave:
Guest airsick Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I think that there is one huge important point that has been skimmed over here - the final report which contains findings of the investigation based on verifiable facts is based on the opinion of the experts involved in the investigation. Sure, they are experts but they still form an opinion and that is what gets published. An opinion is all we will ever get. Investigators will dig deeper than we can get and form their opinion on more facts than we have access to but we will never know the full and complete truth. Let's say for example that the pilot of one of the aircraft fell asleep and that's what led to the collision. Would there be medical evidence to say he was asleep? No, it isn't like a heart attack where there will be some sort of physiological evidence left behind. In the end all the experts can really say is that, "in our opinion...". We seem to take for granted that what they say is gospel. They are more educated than us in this type of stuff but it still an opinion. Why should we have to leave our judgement out of it when we have a certain amount of expertise in the mattter as pilots yet we leave the press, anti-aviation people, etc. to speculate. As someone else said, we are stakeholders, let's discuss it in a way that is adult and not hurtful to those directly affected and we should all be fine. Flyer raised some good points about centreline, GAAPs and language barriers. I don't recall reading anything inflammatory about any of these points but somehow we have come away with this from the discussion here...
Admin Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I personally believe this thread has been handled extremely well. We have highlighted some issues without laying any blame and that is absolutely fantastic and the way that these types of threads should go. It all comes down simply to the words that are used in the post and it is so obvious that that has gone into almost all posts here in this thread before the submit button was pressed - after all these years I really think we are on to something here that differentiates us from the gutter posting in other forums. THANK YOU!
Admin Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I think what the investigators have over us in their opinions are they are actually looking at the pieces on the site and talking first hand to everyone that is involved for them to form a better opinion then what we get to make our opinions on - the newspaper, that deserves a big Just my opinion :big_grin:
Guest airsick Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 I think what the investigators have over us in their opinions are they are actually looking at the pieces on the site and talking first hand to everyone that is involved for them to form a better opinion then what we get to make our opinions on That goes without saying. My point was that it is still opinion. If we discuss the accident or incident (in an above board manner) then despite our discussion being based purely on potentially flawed opinion it can still be worthwhile and helpful. Then in two years time when the report comes out and a lot of the gaps are filled we can reopen the discussion if there is something really eye opening contained in its findings. Maybe that is another idea for a section of the forums - recently released accident investigation findings??? It would be interesting to see how many times the discussions here cover the scenarios found to be most likely in the official reports. And how many times our conclusions based around these scenarios fall into line with the official findings.
Admin Posted August 28, 2008 Posted August 28, 2008 Fuel spewed from Cessna plane after mid-air collision Staff writers August 29, 2008 12:00am FUEL spewed from a damaged plane before its heroic pilot pulled it out of a death plunge and made it to an airport. The airman, who was instructing a novice pilot, grabbed the controls as the Piper Warrior threatened to plummet into suburban houses. He was able to level off at about 600ft (200m) and make it safely back to Moorabbin airport. The pair had seconds earlier collided with learner pilot Akash Ananth and witnessed the start of his fatal descent into a Cheltenham back yard. Mr Ananth, 24, had earlier approached the runway and, either deliberately practising or because of a poor approach, took off again. The Herald Sun has been told Mr Ananth was in congested air traffic when he was instructed by air traffic control to turn left, away from Moorabbin airport, from where he had earlier taken off. Mr Ananth, a trainee pilot from the Royal Victoria Aero Club, is believed to have obeyed instructions, putting him on a direct collision course with the Piper Warrior. A source said that in the moments before impact the two pilots saw one another and, as is normal, banked hard right to avoid a collision. The Cessna clipped the wing and tail of the Piper. The Piper Warrior, with teacher and pupil aboard, had been on a navigational training flight and was en route to Moorabbin when it collided with the Cessna, which had been doing circuits. Airservices Australia, which operates the control tower at Moorabbin, said personnel manning the tower had been suspended as part of a normal investigation process. "In this incident the air traffic controllers on duty at the time have been stood down pending a full investigation," an AA spokeswoman said. It couldn't comment further because the matter was the subject of an Australian Transport Safety Bureau inquiry. ATSB investigators yesterday returned to the scene of the wreckage. Parts of the plane, some up to a metre long, were found hundreds of metres away. Investigator-in-charge Michael Watson said the wreck indicated Mr Ananth had no change of survival. "We are interested in what led to the accident," he said. "At the moment we've got most of the wreckage, but there are a few bits that have been found in the vicinity where the aircraft collided." He said they would listen to the communications between air controllers and the pilot, but it was only one of many aspects of the case. Moorabbin airport's future was under a cloud yesterday. Premier John Brumby said there was a strong argument that more of the training could be done in regional and country areas, where there are fewer people. "We've been working to do that. We have a company which is training pilots now at Mangalore, and I know there are a number of other sites in the state which are under active investigation," he said. Mr Brumby said the airport came under federal jurisdiction, but he would read the State Coroner's and the CASA reports very closely before he drew any conclusions. "Moorabbin's got a 20-year licence by the Federal Government, and the next review comes up in 2009," he said. "As a matter of course we would make a submission to that. We'd want to look very closely at the coroner's report and the CASA report before we jump to any conclusions." Moorabbin airport last year had 310,322 take-offs and landings, an increase of 76,796 flights on the previous year. "That probably distills down to about 40,000 a month -- and that's a hell of a lot of aircraft flying circles around this community," Moorabbin Airport Residents Association's Tom Uren said. "I've been told about 70 per cent of movements at the airport involve international trainees. They're practising their skills over a heavily populated area, and you might say a percentage of them are unskilled. It's a great concern. "When you're talking about humans and mechanical contraptions, there's got to be that potential for something to go wrong." In June, MASA and the Dingley Village Community Association sent a report to the Federal Government outlining their concerns. The report states in part: "Moorabbin airport is the busiest airport in Australia for aircraft movements. "It deals mainly with old, noisy light aircraft (majority over 30 years old) as opposed to general aviation traffic elsewhere. "The majority of activity is light aircraft used by flying schools for daily, repetitive circuit training." Greater Dandenong councillor Peter Brown, who also lives close to the airport, has sent his member of Parliament a string of e-mails about "event after event of low-flying planes crossing each other's path within minutes and, in some cases, seconds of each other". "I referred to the air traffic over our residential area as out of control months ago, warning of an impending tragedy," Mr Brown states in one of the e-mails. "My complaints were mainly ignored," he said. The Federal Government would decide whether Moorabbin airport should be moved, its manager, Phil McConnell, said yesterday. Mr McConnell admitted having an airport in suburban Melbourne, particularly one that focused on training pilots, generated concerns. "Of course we are aware of concerns," he said. "The Government has got to work out if it's happy to have airports in suburban centres," he said. The airport's owners, Goodman Holdings, recently signed a 99-year lease with the Federal Government to operate at the site. But the Rudd Government is reviewing national aviation policies, including safety and the operation of urban airports. - Anthony Dowsley, Paul Anderson and Nick Higginbottom Engineer Tony Suhr inspects the damaged plane. Picture Nicole Garmston
Guest airsick Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 LIARS!!! Moorabbin airport last year had 310,322 take-offs and landings, an increase of 76,796 flights on the previous year. "That probably distills down to about 40,000 a month -- and that's a hell of a lot of aircraft flying circles around this community," Moorabbin Airport Residents Association's Tom Uren said. 55 per cent!!! WHO WILL STOP THESE TWITS??? I couldn't help but do the calculations and just highlight the stupidity of this guy, it really doesn't surprise me that he used to be a politician. He is clearly quite adept at lying for political gain. 310322 take-off's and landings per year (we'll call it cycles for simplicity) comes to 25860 per month. Conversely, 40000 cycles per month comes to 480000 per year. So basically this guy has inflated the figures by around 55 per cent! Now that is not a simple rounding error that is a difference of some order of magnitude. This guy is obviously hell bent on getting his own way even if it does mean using lies and deceit to do it.
Guest Flyer40 Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 Quote Flyer40 “These three simple rules could work; 1. Say nothing disparaging about the victims. 2. Show appropriate sensitivity to the family and friends of the victims (remember they may be on this forum). 3. Do not make unofficial/unverified assertions about causation.†1. Unfortunately a language barrier may be to blame. To bring this rule in would stifle debate. By talking about it, we become aware that there may be language barriers. 2. Couldn’t agree more….. 3. Agreed. Lets have a look at what and unofficial/unverified assertion about causation is…….it is called an opinion. It's certainly about choice of language. Perhaps some clarification is warranted. For example saying something like; "the pilot might not have dipped the tanks before departure" is a reasonable observation that focuses on a key point. But saying something like "that bloke never dipped his tanks, he was an accident waiting to happen" is disparaging. In relation to point 3, I'm all for discussion of opinions. Particularly when a plane inexplicably falls out of the sky. We should be able to discuss bird strikes, pilot incapacitation, structural failures etc. But saying something like "I heard there were empty beer cans found in the wreckage", or "XXX is a flawed design" is making an unsupported assertion and is out of bounds. airsick I'd also point out that contemporary accident investigation in organisations like ATSB has moved on and is no longer about the opinion of the investigator. I train investigators (not in aviation, but our methodology is the same) and I can assure you that expressing an opinion in an accident report is not on. Investigators take a scientific approach to the analysis of evidence. Which means that the findings are reliable and would be repeated by another investigator. You'd be surprised at how intimately informed an investigator can become when s/he has access to all the evidence. With modern investigative techniques there is very little that remains unknown. Another thing you don't see in the reports is the extensive work done on lines of inquiry that ultimately ruled themselves out. Occasionally there are some mysteries that remain and we find reports with open or inconclusive findings, but it's rare that investigators remain uncertain and are left with only a 'probable cause'. It's probably also worth mentioning that if you do read accident reports on line, the US methodology is different and you do see opinions expressed in their reports.
Guest airsick Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 airsick I'd also point out that contemporary accident investigation in organisations like ATSB has moved on and is no longer about the opinion of the investigator. Hi Flyer40, sorry if I have offended you in any way, it wasn't intended. I based my comments on a few things I have read in accident reports. While they do not say 'opinion' it is quite often that they will say things in a probabilisitic manner. That is to say, they cannot be certain about the events. So based on experience, training, etc. they make judgement calls. I have recently been doing some research into Lancairs and have looked into the safety history of the aircraft. This quote is taken from one of the accident reports I read and is not unusual. "...it is likely that an accelerated manoeuvre stall occurred..." Thus what they are saying is they think the accident was caused by a certain sequence of events but they cannot be sure. As I said, their experience and training leads them to these conclusions but they are still judgement calls in the face of uncertainty. Sometimes there is very little uncertainty while other times there is a great deal. That said, these guys do an excellent job in dealing with these uncertainties and that's why we should respect their opinion. The report from which the above quote was taken can be found at http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2006/AAIR/pdf/aair200601640_002.pdf
Guest Flyer40 Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 No offense taken mate. Sorry if it sounded that way. Just trying to help with some inside info. :big_grin:
Matt Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 Firstly, as with all others, condolences to the family and friends of the poor young fella that didn't make it - from all reports he was just like all of us, a passionate aviator wanting to do nothing more than fly. Full credit to the crew of the Warrior - from the photos in the press and that posted above, they were very fortunate to be able to recover and return to base with the tailplane in that condition. Also fortunate that the Warrior has an all moving elevator / tailplane, I'd suspect that had it had a trailing edge elevator only (like a 172) they would most likely lost all elevator control authority...it could have been a much worse accident.
Guest AusDarren Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 I regularly operate out of Moorabbin, and have previously flown the warrior that was involved VH CGT. It is an awful occurrence. There but for the grace of god go any of us. Moorabbin is seriously busy these days. As a result of the accident controllers are reported to have been suspended while investigation proceeds. I feel for the controllers, all of which I have found to be most professional. As a result of the suspensions Staff will be tight until the suspension is lifted. Separation in GAAP is solely the responsibility of the pilot in command, as has been mentioned, the tower will give you sequencing instructions, such as "number 2 to land follow the blue Cherokee". As the pilot in command, if we haven't sighted the traffic within a minute or so, we must respond "traffic not sighted". The tower is most helpful when you give the call. At Moorabbin it is not unusual to have serious frequency congestion. I do not know if it may have been a factor in this collision. Lorna St is located approximately the base position for 17R. Around control zones like Melbourne Sydney and Brisbane traffic is often funnelled below the CTA Steps, and I have passed opposite direction traffic at close to my level on three occasions. the speed at which they go by is faster than my reaction time. by the time I have recognised it as another aircraft it has already passed my 3 O'clock. The big sky has kept me safe. See and avoid mostly works, but it does have its limitations, in the case of head on approaching traffic by the time you see it, is it already too late? All Aircraft have blind spots in their visibility. Lets remain vigilant out there. lest we forget. AusDarren
Guest gosk8ing Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 Looking at the warrior, I very surprised it made it back. Think of all the drag that hori stab would've be making. You can also see damage on the rudder and LH flap. I totally agree with the congestion at moorabbin. Now start clearances are required for circuits so ATC can control the numbers in the circuits, but still it gets very busy. Also now if your VFR by day going into CTA you have to get your airways clearance from ML Radar (MB TWR use to give it). Its getting that congested that sometimes I havent been able to get my 'turning downwind' call until turning base and sometimes halfway on base. I can just imagine how tired the controllers must get with this much congestion.
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