SKEWED REPORTING ON US

[sain]

has anybody considered inviting her to come for a flight in their ultralight? It might help her to get a better perspective on things, if she spends some time cruising around with somebody knowledgable who can describe the differences between say a 747 and a J450. It might also help her to write better articles in the future.

 

 

[Modest Pilot]

The same thought ocurred to me; I'd be happy to oblige.

 

 

[Guest brentc]

It is unfortunate Doug that the statistics aren't in our favour, when calculated versus km's driven, hours spent flying etc etc. I know this opens a can of worms and statistics can be manipulated in so many ways (perhaps worthy of another thread), however it's been documented time and time again that General Aviation is approximately number 3 in the list of the most dangerous things that you can do, closely beaten by Parachuting and Motorcycle riding, closely followed by lawn bowns. RPT Jet travel is the safest form of transportation still.

 

Mike is on the right track, as in it's all about the way in which the information is presented to the reader.

 

Mike's comment: 'Since the Falke accident about 31 people will have died on Australia's roads. Yes there are fewer pilots but we can put a context on this - we can put our spin on this. More people die on the roads in one week than in leisure flying in a whole year'

 

..... is quite valid and the kind of approach that should be taken.

 

Getting the author on-side by taking her flying isn't the solution as it doesn't change the statistics because ultimately GA and RA flying is dangerous, like it or not, the statistics speak for themselves!

 

What we can do is continue to fly safely and promote our sport to those that are interested and work with others to develop a safety culture to help achieve this

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

One of the problems is "clusters"; you may have a bad month and then nothing for the rest of the year but all people will focus on is "10 people died this month". It's like the two completely freak occurrences of infant's strollers rolling into the Torrens and drowning here in Adelaide two years or so ago. Twice in one year - this must be terribly unsafe! The banks are too steep! We must spend millions on fences! When the truth it that is hasn't happened before and not since.

 

Giving the author a joyride and showing how much we focus on safety (route planning, weather, walk around, etc) may also have the opposite effect: "This must be *really* unsafe if you have to go through this much trouble before setting off!"

 

 

[Ewen McPhee]

In my opinion you're best to ignore her. It will be old news in 24 hours. Make a fuss and it keeps the issue in her mind and that of the paper. They do like controversy and unrest, it sells.

 

 

[Guest Michael Coates]

We are talking basically average deaths per year so the bigger a sample as you can take the better the results will be. But whatever numbers are uded is all brought back to averages per year so it stands fairly well.

 

I am talking averages per year on the respective samples provided in the reports so whether the information spans 10 years or 30 years it doesn't really matter because it is all average back out to a per year sample.

 

Airsick is the statestician maybe he can look and give comment ?

 

 

[tvaner]

In my opinion you're best to ignore her. It will be old news in 24 hours.

Have to agree there. Todays news, tomorrows fish & chips wrapper.

 

 

[Guest basscheffers]

We are talking basically average deaths per year so the bigger a sample as you can take the better the results will be.

All things being equal, that would be true. But the reason the numbers are so much lower now is because we all wear three point seat belts, have airbags, crumple zones, roll cages, better lights, brakes, roads, etc. that we did not have in 1976. The total number of kilometers driven per year will be much higher now too with people living farther away from work, having a second car for the school run, etc.

So all things are not equal and the numbers for those years have nothing to do with the current state of safety and that is what matters. We'd be in real trouble if we averaged out single-piston plane deaths all the way back to 1939! (OK, being dramatic here, but you catch my drift)

 

Secondly, you can not just add the number up per year and average it out again because the samples could be quite different. Example: One year has 4 deaths per 100,000 and the next year has 5 deaths per 100,000. Which is then the historical average, 4.5? It may be, but it may not.

 

Say year 1 had a total of 200,000 hours flown and 8 deaths, that is 4 per 100K. Now in the next year we have 400,000 hours flown and 20 deaths, which is 5 per 100K. That makes the average over both years 4.65, not 4.5!

 

So if you do the simple averaging over the past few years, your sampling error will be quite low - but do it all the way back to 1976 when driving habits were vastly different and your error will be quite severe.

 

Regards,

 

Bas.

 

 

[BLA82]

Gees,

 

I would hate to be paranoid, I ride bikes, drive over 50,000km per year in a car and go flying in a microlight. Crap I am a ageing, irresponsible and reckless adrenalin junkie all by the age of 26. I think this lady who somehow passed a couple of years at uni to become a jounalist needs to keep reporting on Aliens and hopefully a couple might anal probe some sense into her.

 

The RAA would not return calls, I WONDER WHY!!!! why would a bunch of intellegent people bother wasting their time by talking to someone who obviously doesn't take any notice of facts.

 

Oh well thats my 2 cents worth.

 

 

[Guest airsick]

Basscheffers is right, simple averages won't cut it here. Assuming we drive more now than we did some time ago this method will result in us overstating the number of deaths per year. This is due to us giving equal weighting to the early years with high death rates when we should in fact be giving a higher weighting to later years when we drive more.

 

That said, what Michael was doing is right in theory (ignoring the averaging method). Bernoulli's Theorem or the Law of Large Numbers says, in simple terms, that the bigger the sample the more likely it is that your descriptive statistics will be accurate. This is better explained using a simple example.

 

Take two years and two theoretical sets of circumstances. The first year is a typical year with no unusual events or occurrences while the second year has something like the olympics, or the turn of the century or what ever. It doesn't matter what this event is but we assume it means people for some reason drive more in that particular year.

 

On our first year the number of deaths might be 5 while in the second it might be 10. Using simple averages this gives us 7.5 deaths per year on average. Aside from the problem of weighting we can clearly see in this example that the second year is an anomaly and raises the average higher than it ought to be.

 

Say now we have 10 years worth of data with 9 of them being typical and the 10th being our unusual year. The total number of deaths over this period is 9 x 5 + 1 x 10 = 55. The average number over this period is now 5.5. We know for a fact that our typical year has 5 years (because we defined it) and we can see that using 10 years worth of data gives us a point estimate much closer to this when compared with using only 2 years. And this is despite the problem of weighting.

 

All this said there are other funny things going on in the background that we need to control for.

 

- We don't know what the typical number of deaths in any particular year is.

 

- We don't know if any events changed the amount we drive or the way we drive.

 

- We don't know what years things like airbags, seat belts, ABS, etc. we introduced(and what effect they had).

 

These problems aside I would suggest that instead of looking at the number of miles flown or driven you look at the number of passenger miles. This is the general consensus amongst those who look at these things for a living and is much more accurate. I would even hazard a guess that the numbers would swing into the favour of flying as well.

 

A vast majority of driving is done with only one person in the car - driving to/from work, truck drivers and so forth - whereas a lot of flying is done with two people in the plane if not more. This will change the figures quite dramatically. Again, a quick example might help.

 

Say the average number of people in a plane is 1.5 and the average number in a car is 1.2. Using Michael's numbers from earlier we have 1.7 deaths in planes and 1.54 in cars for every 100m km's. Correcting for passenger miles this equates to 1.1 deaths for planes and 1.3 for cars. So you can see how controlling for the number of people on board can change things.

 

The problem with this is that there is not a great deal of data for passenger miles driven (we have quite good stats on flying) so it is difficult to determine the true figures. Despite this there are a number of methods and proxies that we can use to estimate these numbers. The only issue here is that you guys aren't paying me enough to do it.

 

 

[Guest ozzie]

:angry:why are you people wasting so much time on this stupid reporter when you should be putting the effort into bashing your local polly and those security nazis in canberra. there really are more important issues to deal with.

 

Ozzie

 

 

[Guest airsick]

:angry:why are you people wasting so much time on this stupid reporter

I was asked to.

 

you should be putting the effort into bashing your local polly and those security nazis in canberra.

Couldn't agree more! Alert Security gone mad - Recreational Flying :)

 

 

[facthunter]

Subject .

 

We started off talking about poor journalism, and ended up on statistics, an easy distraction I suppose.. nev

 

 

[Guest High Plains Drifter]

has anybody considered inviting her to come for a flight in their ultralight?

Has She taken up the offer ? ;)

 

 

[Arnaud]

Life is too short...

 

Don't waste your time and money buying and reading Sunday papers, leave this task to Neanderthalers.

 

Just relax and enjoy the feeling of being up there...safely if possible.

 

Arnaud

 

 

[Deskpilot]

Perhaps she should be given access to this thread (only) so that she can experience the reaction to her 'informed' article. Have we got her email address?

 

 

[Guest Ken deVos]

Perhaps she should be given access to this thread (only) so that she can experience the reaction to her 'informed' article. Have we got her email address?

I agree with Arnaud.

 

Any emotional signals from us will boost her ego and give her further ammunition.

 

 

[Guest Michael Coates]

I agree with Arnaud.Any emotional signals from us will boost her ego and give her further ammunition.

 

Agreed !! Good idea

 

 

[Guest ozzie]

motion is passed

 

now lets get back to more important things.

 

like getting our airports back!!!!

 

 

[Guest airsick]

An email worth sending around to everyone who is concerned about airport access

 

Dear fellow pilot and traveller,

 

As the years go by the rights of pilots are eroded by the closure of airports and the restriction of access to those airports that remain open. This doesn’t just affect those who pilot their own aircraft, it will also result in a decline in numbers of student pilots which means we will have difficulty in finding suitably qualified people to pilot the aircraft used in airline operations. Standards will be lowered, safety will decline, costs will increase and we will be forced to find pilots from other markets outside of Australia. It appears that our calls for some sense in these areas are falling on deaf ears so it is about time we got a little louder.

 

I have written a short passage below highlighting the attitude of airport owners using Terry Snow, the owner of Canberra airport, as an example. He is currently implementing measures that severely restrict access to private aircraft despite the fact that we pay him for the privilege. I am sure other airport owners are watching with interest to see what happens. I urge you to copy the italicised passage below and forward it to the following list of recipients between 6am and 8pm on Tuesday 16 September 2008. It is a simple request, just cut and paste then hit send at the right time. Forward this email to your flying buddies or anyone else that has ever used a plane for work or pleasure and encourage them to do the same. We need to get as many people as possible involved so the message is clear. If you care about your ability to jump in a plane and go flying or just want to be able to book a cheap airfare to Bali then you should care about this too. So put it into your diaries and don’t forget to let the powers that be know that you are fed up.

 

“Terry Snow is restricting access to Canberra airport for GA pilots – this is not an isolated incident, similar restrictions are now in place all over the country and more are being implemented every day. GA pilots are the lifeline of aviation in Australia and the key to addressing pilot shortages in this country. The actions of Mr Snow and people like him are putting the future of aviation in Australia at risk. These issues need to be addressed so aviation can continue to grow and provide services so important to a country like Australia where the vast distances between major centres pose unique challenges to travellers.

 

 

 

Closing airports and restricting access to those few air fields that remain is ensuring smaller numbers of Australians will choose piloting as a career of choice. Please help us stop people like Terry Snow from cutting the throat of one of Australia's most important transport links - aviation.â€

 

Recipient list:

 

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So forward this onto all your associates that you think might care about this issue.

 

And don’t forget to set a reminder in your phone/calendar so you remember to let everyone know we aren’t happy with the way this is panning out!

 

Cheers,

 

One of many disgruntled aviation enthusiasts.

 

 

[Yenn]

I could solve her problem. If she flew with me I don't think we would hear from her again, although I may have misjudged her and she could hang on for longer than I thought.

 

Would her demise that way be an an ultraljght accident or journalistic licence?

 

 

[mr badger]

what a load of rubbish

 

i was fumming about this artical to ! but what do you expect from the media ? in all its forms its all about dumming the nation down where ever you look its missinformed information , we as a group know the truth and we share our truth and knowladge with every one we come into conntact with and tell them the truth !!

 

we need louder stronger voiced lobbiest like the oil commpanys that will do it !!!!

 

i hate the media !!!

 

 

[Guest airsick]

We need to be louder? Well let's shout then!

 

What's the point in these comments amongst ourselves? Sure we can sit here and debate the stupidity of making unqualified statements in the media but where is it going to get us?

 

Why not try and make a difference and make a statement. Copy the email above and forward to everyone who you think might get off their rear end and take part in something that might result in some positive changes for once. We have been too quiet for too long and whinging to each other here does nothing to help our cause.

 

Come on guys. Let's at least try to do something to make a change. Ozzie has also written something that you might like to use as an alternative to my suggestion but the important thing is we all do it at the same time so we get noticed. As Mr Badger said, we need to get noticed and the only way that will happen is if we make a concerted effort to do this right. A constant stream of emails all along the same lines throughout the day should do the job but this will only happen with your help...

 

 

[Ben Longden]

i was fumming about this artical to ! but what do you expect from the media ? in all its forms its all about dumming the nation down where ever you look its missinformed information , we as a group know the truth and we share our truth and knowladge with every one we come into conntact with and tell them the truth !!we need louder stronger voiced lobbiest like the oil commpanys that will do it !!!!

i hate the media !!!

Gee, THANKS.

 

I'll remember that when filming the next road crash.

 

Ben

 

No offence taken, but don't paint us all with the same stick..

 

 

[mr badger]

hey ben

 

thats what i mean, lets film road crashes !theres enough greif there with out shoving into peoples tea times and into there lives as well as the familys that have been hurt in the road crash, i think there is enough horror in this world with out the media poring more negativity into our lives , its hard enough already.

 

like i said before the media has a lot to answer for for the society we live in to day.

 

this not an attack on you personaly but the media as a whole

 

cheers mr badger