Admin Posted September 24, 2009 Posted September 24, 2009 The total number of valid registrations is now more or less static — the number of new registrations is being balanced by non-renewal of registration. See table 2. The number of aircraft dropping off the register is surprising; perhaps it's due to the current economic conditions. In the 18 months from December 2007 to June 2009 there were 402 new registrations; in the same period 451 aircraft left the register. Among those were 78 aircraft with initial registrations from the 1980s and 55 from the 1990–1994 period, which could be expected. However, 80 aircraft from the 1995–1999 period, 108 from 2000–2004 and 130 from 2005–2007 were not renewed; which is totally unexpected. During the last three years there has been a nine percentage point shift away from home-builts (now down to 44% of total aircraft) towards increasingly complex factory-built aircraft. See table 1. This has resulted in a substantial increase in the market value of the RA-Aus flight line — currently estimated at $98 million; an enormous increase in value since the association's inception just 26 years ago. ... John Brandon Table 1. Number of aircraft in each registration category The number of aircraft on the register is now more or less static — the number of new registrations is balanced by aircraft dropping off the register, see table 2. During the last three years there has been a nine percentage point shift away from home-builts (now 44% of total aircraft) towards increasingly complex factory-built aircraft. This has resulted in a substantial increase in the market value of the RA-Aus flight line — currently estimated at above $90 million. Prefix CAO & paragraph Number & % of total at June 25, 2009 % of total at December 31, 2007 % of total at June, 2006 10- CAO 95.10 home-built 250 – 9% 12% 13% 19- CAO 95.55 para 1.5 & 1.9 home-built 905 – 31% 32% 35% 28- CAO 95.55 para 1.2 home-built 108 – 4% 4% 5% Total home-built 1263 – 44% 48% 53% 32- CAO 95.32 trikes & 'chutes 406 – 14% 14% 12% 24- CAO 95.55 para 1.6 & 1.8 factory-built 691 – 24% 18% 12% 25- CAO 95.55 para 1.4 factory-built 286 – 10% 11% 13% 55- CAO 95.55 para 1.3 factory-built 216 – 8% 8% 10% Total factory-built 1599 – 56% 52% 47% Total on register 2862 Table 2. Number of aircraft by year of registration The following table summarises the number of aircraft on the register, listed in the year of initial registration. When an aircraft registration lapses due to non-payment of the annual fee the number is not re-assigned to another aircraft and the registration number entry retains its initial date. So, normally, if an owner allows an aircraft registration to lapse, then pays the registration fee at some later time it will not be regarded as a new registration and the initial date will be maintained in the record. Year of initial registration Number at 25/6/09 Number at 31/12/07 1986 16 18 1987 52 58 1988 [note 1] 165 218 1989 50 67 1990 46 55 1991 56 73 1992 63 76 1993 91 102 1994 65 70 1995 52 65 1996 51 65 1997 57 73 1998 [note 2] 80 92 1999 102 127 2000 129 153 2001 131 152 2002 129 146 2003 137 160 2004 169 192 2005 208 255 2006 304 348 2007 307 346 2008 [note 3] 296 - 2009 [to June 25] 106 - Total [note 4] 2862 2912 Notes to table 2: 1. The RA-Aus aircraft register started in 1986 with the new factory-built CAO 95.25 training aircraft, it took two or three years for then existing ultralight owners to register their aircraft with AUF/RA-Aus, so the year of registration shown may not reflect aircraft age. 2. CAO 95.55 was expanded in 1998 to introduce the amateur-built (experimental) category which led to the increase in registrations for the following years. 3. RA-Aus membership and flight training facilities grew significantly during 2005–2008 which triggered the big increase in aircraft registrations during 2005–2008. The economic conditions of 2008/9 have now slowed new registrations. 4. The number of aircraft dropping off the register is surprising. Probably it's due to the current economic conditions. In the 18 months from December 2007 to June 2009 there were 402 new registrations; in the same period 451 aircraft left the register. Among those were 78 aircraft with initial registrations from the 1980s and 55 from the 1990–1994 period, which perhaps might be expected. However, 80 aircraft disappeared from the 1995–1999 period, 108 from 2000–2004 and 130 from 2005–2007; which was totally unexpected. Table 3. Aircraft register at December 31, 2008 State Full registration Provisional registration 90-day suspension Total aircraft Qld 704 23 26 753 NSW + ACT 706 26 16 744 Vic 624 20 17 661 Tas 79 1 2 82 SA 263 6 5 274 WA 224 10 2 236 NT 50 0 5 55 Total 2650 82 73 2805 Note to table 3: provisional registration applies to completed home-builts which have not yet flown the 40 hours required for full registration. The 90-day suspension category applies to aircraft where the annual fee payment is overdue; a 90 days grace is allowed before the registration entry is cancelled. Home-built projects, that have been allocated a registration number but the aircraft have not yet made their initial flight, are not included in any of the registration statistics. Table 4. Market value of RA-Aus flight line A sample of the number of aircraft offered for sale in the members' market section of the RA-Aus magazine is taken quarterly. Advertisements offering a syndicate share or an incomplete aircraft are excluded from the sampling, as are advertisements where no asking price appears. The results are shown in the table. The average asking price during the past two years was $40 500 and has been generally consistent. The assumption is that the sale price finally achieved (i.e. market value) is about 85% of the asking price which places the average aircraft market value at $34 400. This values the 2862 aircraft with valid registration (25 June 2009) at $98 000 000. In addition it is probable that there are another 300–400 aircraft where the owners, for various reasons, have allowed the registration to lapse temporarily. Magazine issue sampled Number of aircraft advertised for sale Total value of asking price $ million Average value of asking price $ Price range $'000s Jun 2007 62 2.259 36 500 5–118 Sep 2007 63 2.656 42 000 5–125 Dec 2007 87 3.705 42 500 6–143 Mar 2008 55 2.311 42 000 8–125 Jun 2008 61 2.593 42 000 10–90 Sep 2008 61 2.205 36 000 3–100 Dec 2008 55 2.283 41 500 10–110 Mar 2009 61 2.526 41 000 8–138 Jun 2009 48 1.882 39 000 10–110 553 $22.420M $40 500 $3–143k
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