IF I stood in front of a crowd of aviators and declared that aviation was thriving, I would no doubt get shouted down. It’s a ludicrous statement, right? If I instead announced that aviation was dying, I would probably get a much better reception. That’s how Trump got elected. It’s controversial, eye raising and attention-grabbing stuff. We are wired to pay attention to things which might adversely affect us, so we stand and take notice of these types of comments. RAAus grew by eight per cent over the past year. RAAus has been getting safer over the past five years. RAAus has created more than 10,000 aviators in the past 10 years. These are all very impressive numbers if you ask me. Not exactly riveting material and certainly not the sort of thing that creates headlines. It is just the plain and simple truth. But despite this good news, we seem to be obsessed with the falsehood that we are dying. We’re convinced someone is killing us and that someone is CASA.
We’re told GA in the US is thriving because of its different regulatory environment. None of that is true. We tend to give it more emphasis due to our natural tendency to try and protect ourselves. Let’s start with the US and get the real picture. In Australia, most general aviation is conducted by piston powered aircraft. Sure, we have turbo props and so forth, but these are fairly small in comparison to the rest of the fleet. Of course, this changes when you consider commercial ops, but the share for GA is fairly small. The number of aircraft in the US which fall into this category peaked in 1984 at 197,442, according to AOPA. Its data, which is freely available on its website, then shows a steady decline from that year on. The latest published figures show the total number of piston aircraft at 155,180. That’s a decline of 21 per cent. In absolute terms, the fall in numbers is more than 42,000 aircraft. To put that into context, at the time of writing this there were 15,518 aircraft on the CASA register and a further 3,500 on the RAAus register. So the US market shrunk by more than twice the size of the entire Australian fleet. If we shrunk by that much we would have minus 23,000 planes in Australia! If we were to base our arguments on this, we would conclude that the US market is struggling not thriving. And it doesn’t end there. In 1984, the same year piston powered aircraft numbers reached their peak, the ‘Experimental’ and ‘Other’ categories totalled only 6,275 aircraft. Now it sits at 37,610 aircraft and I am sure this will continue to grow. So, adding the two categories together, the US has actually seen a small decline of around 5,000 aircraft over the period.
That’s hardly thriving, but I don’t want to be a fear monger and suggest it is dying either! What this says to me is that the landscape is changing. ‘Experimental’ and ‘Other’ includes LSA aircraft, home built and so on. ‘Other’, on its own, is a category growing strongly. It has doubled in the period for which AOPA publishes data. While it isn’t as pronounced as the transition from the horse and cart to the motor car, it is certainly a transformation which is impossible to deny. So why do we believe the rumours about the US thriving and Australian aviation dying? Because we are only hearing one side of the story. Why? I honestly don’t know. The important thing though, is that if we all run around telling people that aviation is a dinosaur and that the comet is about to hit, it is a sure-fire way to turn aviation into a dinosaur and cause the sky to fall in. It is not in the interests of aviation at all and nor is the mentality we seem to employ to promote ourselves. I often hear arguments that we need to unite as an industry.
Indeed, I made the very same argument some years ago, which is how AirVenture came to be. We do need to unite. The problem I also see is the way we conduct ourselves is very different to what we say and we forget the old adage that our actions speak louder than our words. In my view we should have a fly-in somewhere in Australia every single weekend. An aviation event should be going on and we should participate in it. It doesn’t matter whether it is a large or small gathering, an Avalon or a Wings Over Illawarra style event, as long as it happens. What also matters is that we support each other and not try to win at all costs, to the detriment of others in our industry. It’s the reason I worked with fellow aviators to start AirVenture and the same reason we relinquished control of it. The structure of AirVenture is such that no single entity can control it. It is a legal entity in its own right and has multiple beneficiaries, of which RAAus is only one. In other words, we have a strong interest in seeing it succeed, but we do not control it. It is, by design, an event for aviators by aviators. If it doesn’t succeed then you, as an aviator, lose. All aviators lose. Despite us stepping back from having an RAAus centric event and putting aviation as a whole before our own organisation, some people seem determined to undermine it. This is what is causing aviation grief in Australia. It has nothing to do with people moving on from the proverbial horse and cart and into something new. If it did, we’re all going to be shocked when personal aerial vehicles such as those being developed by Lilium, Kitty Hawk, Volocopter, SureFly, etc. become mainstream. Because there’s going to be another shift. We need to stop pointing fingers and focus on real issues. If we don’t get to the root cause of our problems and start to understand that the industry has to accept a role in its own destiny, then we truly are doomed.
Crying foul at the regulator and blaming it for all our problems is like a kid jumping up and down crying ‘it isn’t fair’. The kid is right in that regulation does cost us money and life is not fair, but that is only half the story. GA businesses recently revealed that aviation agencies, of which CASA is just one, account for just four per cent of their operational expenses. There are clearly other things going on and the current approach won’t succeed at fixing them if we ignore them. It’s a not a smart strategy. A steady handed approach, with some rational thinking and argument, is the way to make progress. Understanding the real issues is also key.
We have seen many airports closing over the past decade.
It’s creating access problems, cost pressures and other difficulties which are, in my mind, more significant than the four per cent cost of regulation. Yet no one is doing much about that issue. There are also other significant challenges ahead and no one is paying attention. Things need to change.
Next time you’re in a forum, at the local club or just chatting with other aviators and something controversial is said about our passion, ask that person what their view is based on. What is their background? Why are they qualified to make that statement?
Where is the evidence?
Is it just a rumour which is distracting us from the real issues or is it really something worth worrying about?
If it is the former and it damages things like AirVenture, then question it and push back.
After all, if we don’t stand up for an event for aviators, by aviators, then who will? And if you stand by and let someone destroy aviation, then we will all be dinosaurs, waiting for the comet to hit.