octave

And just because someone is for the initial harsh measures does not mean that they are not also for a controlled easing. the fact is that the initial tough response has now given us more choices when it comes to normalizing things. Some thing that people tend to do is to directly compare the pre covid economy to the lockdown economy. The fact is that if there had been no lockdown the economy would still be struggling. If the restrictions were to be lifted tomorrow it would not be business as usual. If the restrictions were to be lifted tomorrow I would still not be frequenting crowded coffee shops or booking a holiday. I suspect that the countries that have acted thoroughly and early will do better than those that have not.

And also many younger people have pre existing and are unaware. i have a slight vulnerability that I have had all of my life but I only became aware of it 8 years ago. It is interesting to look at the figures regarding uncontrolled high blood pressure. In the age group 18-24 6% of males and 6.7% of females have uncontrolled high blood pressure. age 25-34 11.1% age 45-54 26.9% age 55-64 40% All of these people are more vulnerable and would need to be isolated PLUS their families and others who live with them. Because we started by going hard on physical isolation we do have choices that we would not have if we had let it rip. The notion that the economy would be unaffected if we let it rip is nonsense. With a well over a third of the population self isolating and another percentage who simultaneously have the disease many who will be only mildly affected but also many who are too unwell to work for a couple of weeks. If the lockdown were to be suddenly lifted it is naive to believe that the airline industry would return to normal in the short term. Who is going to travel when they know they may catch covid and be ill at their destination. It is strange that all of a sudden the right wing mob are singing the praises of socialist Sweden and bagging the conservative governments such as The United states government the UK Australia ect. Boris and Donald were all for letting it rip but they changed their tune when it became clear what the results of that would be. I know a couple of people here think they have expertise in this subject but they don't and neither do I. If you have to sift through links to find the 1 site out of many that happens to support your case or if you have to rely on 1 or 2 sources then you should consider to possibility that you are falling into the trap of confirmation bias.

Difficult to a find figure for last month (perhaps you have one) but the last full year figure 2018-2019 for Sweden is 505, this is over the whole years. Covid is over 800 since February.

And we are in lockdown and they are not, this surely is the biggest difference.

Sweden, 10151 cases and 887 deaths, quite high for a country of 10.23 million people. Sweden Coronavirus: 10,151 Cases and 887 Deaths - Worldometer

35 on ventilators as of yesterday. There are 2378 available intensive care beds in Australia during baseline activity, equating to 9.4 ICU beds per 100 000 population.

How about comparing Stockholm 974073 and 303 deaths with Adelaide 1.3 million and 1 death.

That figure is incorrect it was 35 on respirators yesterday and 96 in ICU. The dire predictions are based on doing nothing but we are doing something and we have reduced the infection doubly number of days. To look at a badly handled situation look at New York where they have begun to share 1 respirator between 2 patients which is somewhat experimental. Again the grave predictions are based on not taking action but we are. If the death and complication rates are low compared to other illnesses we also have to factor in the R0 number 2% of 24000000 people is a big number. In terms of saying only old or people with preexisting conditions getting is so who cares? A friend of my son is a doctor at John Hunter working in ER and we have been chatting, he would like to point out that the many medics around the world who have died were not necessarily old or have preexisting conditions but are otherwise healthy however it also comes down to the viral load. Intubating a patient causes many droplets. One problem these are not droplets but more like an aerosol. Pre Existing conditions are important but so is viral load. Th US is an interesting experiment with different states using different tactics. In time it will become clear which tactic produces the best results.

Yes that is good news. In Australia so far we have managed to slow down the infection rate so far. Slowing down the infection rate buys us time for these antivirals and vaccines to be tested and if safe and proven to work they then can be deployed. An out of control infection rate means people will die or be permanently damaged who could have been saved by these medical advances.

I read the map and the graphs. Why dont you interpret both of these for us.

Reverting the the actual subject of this thread and moving away from the amateur epidemiologists. I suspect I won't go back to flying after this. Not so much because of this but for the last couple of years I have not been quite as passionate. I was intending to keep flying until my next BFR. Over the last year I have flown enough to keep current and competent however it does start to become a chore although I do always enjoy it once I drag the hangar door open. I did have a couple of flights I was intending to do such as flying the great ocean road which I have done a few times. This enforced break seems like a natural end to what has been a fantastic pursuit for me. In fact this makes it all the easier for me. I obtained my certificate at the Oaks in 1989. There are lots of other things I want to do. For others it is important to remember that this will end, so hang in there, maybe use the opportunity to refresh theory etc.

Coronavirus can infect cats — dogs, not so much But scientists say it’s unclear whether felines can spread the virus to people, so pet owners need not panic yet.

Pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network show excess all-cause mortality, overall, for the participating countries; however, this pooled excess mortality is driven by a particularly high excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above.

Coronavirus: Dentists to help staff new hospitals This is in Britain but I would assume that other medical practitioners have been pressed into service as well as retired medics. I can see that you think you have cracked some kind of conspiracy but your evidence is cherry picked and unconvincing. If you think the situation around the world is normal and just a storm in a teacup nothing anyone can say will change your mind. I suspect for you it is more a matter of politics than science or public health. If you think the number of deaths in the US currently 8438 is about average for a given time period you have not offered up evidence. If you think the construction of field hospitals in Central Park are merely just a piece of theater then perhaps you could provide evidence of that.

CSIRO begins testing Covid-19 vaccines Things are happening

from the article you quoted But a second piece of good news is that the Chinese are lifting their social distancing and the country is slowly getting back to normal. At the same time, an Australian Mathematical model paper is published which clearly predicts that compliance with “social distancing” must be 80 or 90% otherwise it will not work. My friend Peter Doherty in Australia has reminded everyone that the positive effects of this intervention similar to which we are trying to do here) will take 2 weeks to filter through to fewer deaths etc, so do not expect instant results! Incidentally Peter has ‘form’ because of his Nobel Prize! There must be 80-90% compliance.

Do you believe that 60 doctors dying in a couple of months is the normal death rate? I find your lack of compassion to be quite distasteful. At every turn you attempt to present this as a non event. The situation in the US especially New York is grim. If you cant see that then nothing I see will change your mind.

I see no conspiracy here. It is not the first pandemic and won't be the last.

oooh conspiracy, let me get me my tin foil hat. The fact is that 60 doctors have died in Italy as well as other countries. So that's ok is it? By the way younger people do die from it, yes perhaps they may have a preexisting condition but most human beings don't regard people with preexisting conditions as collateral damage in order to protect the Dow Jones. Thanks for the diagnosis doctor. The point is this is a supposition that you cling to support your proposition. My presumption is that at least some of these cases are subject post mortem. Why on earth would overworked doctors inflate the numbers by declaring deaths from heart attack as covid? So you think this is what is happening do you, in your expert opinion. Are Covid patients still being given steroids, I mean I don't know do you?. Again this is a supposition with no evidence. I would imagine that doctors can't just scrawl any old cause of death they feel like. And why would they inflate the covid numbers? I am sure they would rather be able to go home to their families after their shift rather than stay in isolation. You seem desperate to prove that covid is an exaggerated problem in any way you can. from suggestinging deaths of younger people might be caused by their veganism to the misrepresentation of causes of death. I can't help but think you may be in denial.

So point one would be, this is a good reason not to refer to it as China flu or Wuhan flu? Point two would be does this change how we handle this problem? Also: Chicago infant dies after testing positive for coronavirus, governor says

So what exactly is your point here?

Off the top of my head I am not sure but one thing i note is that the John Hopkins figures are a little behind. So what is your theory? some kind of conspiracy?

The figure (which is a little old now) is 5043 and 501 recovered. Remember though that the infected rate is as of today but it takes 2 to 3 weeks to recover. In other words those who recover today were a percentage of the number infect a couple weeks ago

Lets review this post in two weeks time. I were sharing some other posts here my father in law. He spent many hours as a young child in Birmingham in a bomb shelter hearing bombs exploding. All we are being asked to do is lay on the couch and watch netflix. What ever the death rate turns out to be it comes down to numbers requiring medical care. A small percentage of a large number is still a strain on the system I have so far only posted links to scientific papers but this news clip is what IS happening at the pointy end. So far the measures taken seem to be lessening the burden on the health system. I think it is entirely reasonable for these people working in ER to feel that we should be doing our bit to reduce the surge. I just wonder if you believe these health workers are panic merchants. Chicago doctor on why pandemic "scares" him

Meanwhile as of today in Italy 13155 deaths which includes 60 doctors. You seem to think that when comparing flu and covid that they are mutually exclusive. Australia is entering the flu season. Flu season does tax the medical system so adding a huge influx of covid cases only makes it more difficult. Yes most people who die are older or have pre existing conditions. The notion that people with preexisting conditions would dies soon any way si nonsense. Many 50 years olds with elevated blood pressure are not on deaths door and could expect many more years of useful life. I would absolutely love it if we could follow the Singapore model but we did not start early enough. I suspect we will move closer to the Singapore model and more target isolation but we have to do things once the growth has been slowed. It appears that in Australia we are starting to see a moderating of new infections. I would rather live in Australia with our response than in the US