octave

so no Covid problem in the US?

There seems to be agreement not just from government scientists. I think that various scenarios have been modeled. I also suspect that the economy is considered. If we look at China where the infection rate has dropped markedly it is now getting the economy up and running. Other scenarios may have a longer path back to normality. I agree that it was mishandled in the early stages but not because the government did not wish to offend but a failure to appreciate the warnings from the people who are expert in this field. I personally became aware of this disease from an article in New Scientist in December. This article pretty much predicted what is happening now in the US. I dismissed it as one of those diseases that is only a problem for people in those other countries. Having mishandled it at the beginning has narrowed the available options we have now. The article also states that about a third of the population fall into the vulnerable category. We could only isolate these people but remember that this would also involve isolating the people who live with these people. The number would be far greater than a third. How well would the economy function if we take every 50 year old and those younger but with high blood pressure etc. for a minimum of 18 months or until a vaccine is developed. The road that most countries have gone down to greater or lesser extent is containment and getting the infection rate down to a manageable rate. We may all get it eventually but how good the treatment we get will be determined by the capacity of our hospitals and medical workers. In my opinion no one here has presented any convincing evidence of a better way than containment and managing the infection rate. No one has presented a scenario that spares the economy. What people have presented is articles from Breitbart or from obscure papers like the Jerusalem Post even Womens Health magazine. Also cherry picked snippets of evidence. I have always attempted to post links to Lancet and other respected authorities which I know almost no one here reads. The fact is that governments of all persuasions have accepted the evidence. I believe that we in Australia are seeing the early stage gaining control of the infection rate unlike some other countries. As the infection rate falls to an acceptable level our hospitals will be able to cope with the covid cases and the flu cases that will be coming along soon as well as the normal load of illness and accidents. The economy will recover, it wont be easy or quick but it will recover. The economy would be damaged under any scenario. This is the way we are dealing with it at the moment so we may as well dry our eyes and get on with it.

Perhaps you should explain the maths more clearly' My point is this a small percentage of a large number is still a large number. It is not just the number of people who die it is the number who are hospitalized and those who require intensive care. added to the normal hospitalizations. Again why do you think you are so much smarter than the nations medics virologists and epidemiologists. Could you answer this question. Why is it that hospitals in Italy Spain and now the UK having trouble coping and are you convinced that this definitely wont wont happen here?

So tell me again why you think you know better? So we isolate everyone over 50? So for instance the engineering company my wife worked at would be reduced to the younger engineers but crucially the manager and owner would be absent. Those airliners can be serviced but how many experienced engineering supervisors are over 50. But wait how many workers under 50 live in a household with someone in a vulnerable group, childhood asthma is quite common. So 34% of Australia's population are over 50 and many people over 50 tend be in roles which require more experienced. What would happen if we took every doctor,every specialist, every nurse out of the health system for perhaps a year? What about other industries, take every 50 year senior engineer, senior police officer? Do you think that our hospital can cope better than the US hospital system? Why do you think that pretty every government across the political spectrum are taking this threat seriously. Even Trump who said the US would be up and running by april is changing his mind on that - why? Re your assertion that you and a very few others are the only ones who are mathematically literate, just do a search on the maths of covid spread and look at each site in turn. You have to delve deep to find any sight that supports your assertion. Implications of all the available evidence The measures put in place to reduce contacts in school and work are helping to control the COVID-19 outbreak by affording health-care systems time to expand and respond. Authorities need to carefully consider epidemiological and modelling evidence before lifting these measures to mitigate the impact of a second peak in cases. From the Lancet Journal of Medicine The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study How—and When—Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End? An end in sight? - After weeks of strict distancing, some parts of the world—including China’s Hubei province, where SARS-CoV-2 was discovered—are now initiating their “exiting strategies,” according to STAT. Here, the pace of the pandemic has dramatically slowed, following a complete lockdown that kept residents from traveling between cities or even strolling down the street. With the exception of those in Wuhan, the city where the virus was first detected last year, Hubei residents can now leave the province, provided their health status is clear. Should the case count stay low, more restrictions are expected to be lifted in the coming weeks—though officials are readying themselves to reimpose measures if necessary. The optimism in Hubei, however, is not universal. In the United States, COVID-19 cases are still skyrocketing by the day, and experts can’t yet forecast when this country’s outbreak will start to fizzle out. For now, many are highlighting success in other countries, and the glimmers of hope emerging in places like Washington state, where new infections are still occurring, but not as rapidly as before, thanks to widespread abidance to distancing. The road to ending this pandemic is an obviously difficult one that relies, in large part, on the collective resilience of hundreds of millions. Strict distancing will not—and cannot—be sustained forever, and recovering from these measures will require careful attention to both physical and mental health.

" 2017 there were 1,255 deaths due to influenza " over 1 year (I note that you picked a peak year rather than average) Covid 19 was first detected in Australia on the 21st of January. Since isolation the the increase of daily cases has dropped from 25%-30% down to 9%. At this point we have 4860 detected cases and 20 deaths. if we were to go back to the conditions that gave us a 25% per day we would have Day 1 4860 and 20 Day 2 6075 and 25 Day 3 7593 and 31.25 Day 4 9491 and 39.06 Day 5 11863 and 48.75 Day 6 14828 and 60.9 Day 7 18535 and 76.25 The totals are 73245 cases and 301 deaths. Now of course we don't have this many cases because we took early action and we reduced the rate to 9% can't be bother to do figures for 9% but you can see the huge difference Yes at the moment 3 months of covid deaths are less than 2017 flu deaths (which was quite a high death year as your link points out). You can't compare 1 years total flu with 3 months covid. A disease has two meaningful figures, its infection rate and its death rate. take ebola, the death rate varies between outbreaks but ranges between between 25% and 90% BUT the number of infections per year are approximately 5000. When comparing Ebola and Covid 19 we see that the first has high mortality rate and low incidence covid has low mortality rate and high incidence. By the way covid 19 does not replace the flu but is in addition, something to think about with regard to the health system given the approach of the flu season. Why do you think you have a better insight into this than the worlds immunologist and virologists? Do you recall that Boris Johnson's policy was to allow to spread to create herd immunity? He backed away from that as the awful consequences became clear. So SplitS what would your strategy be?

Who is cheering it? Not me, I am losing plenty. What I don't want (but you are maybe ok with this) is Italy or Spain or the US. Please explain the maths for mathematical illiterates like me (and the virologists and epidemiologists of the world) I am eagerly awaiting your maths lesson.

The point is our infection rates are a function of the precautions we have taken as well as demographics. People often bring up Singapore as an example of success and this at least at this stage appears to be true. The difference is that Singapore due to its history with SARS was prepared, it listened to ist experts in the field and the people trust the government advice. I would prefer that Australia dealt with covid in a similar way to Singapore but the problem is we waited too long. In Singapore people put an app on their phone which will track their location and if they prove to be infected their contacts can be tracked down. Imagine the outcry if we did that here. I suspect that as the rate of new infections begins to moderate and fall to a reasonable level then we may be able to relax some aspects of the response and introduce other aspects such as temperature measuring. The trouble with the Bolt argument is that if the numbers start to fall he says "look over reaction" if the number keeps climbing then he would be saying "isolation doesn't work" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdDpmAt3lxo:1548

"Sky News host Andrew Bolt says “the evidence is becoming overwhelming” that the danger of the deadly coronavirus “was wildly exaggerated” and is nothing like what we’ve been told. In New South Wales the rate of new infections of the pandemic have actually been declining in past days." Yes because social isolation is working! Predictions of thousands getting it are what would happen IF we did not take action. Bolts assertion is ridiculous. If you don't take action A then consequence X will will happen, we take action A so X doesn't happen and the likes Bolt say "see, X did not happen therefore it was silly to take action A". Illogical. We know what the consequences of acting too late are, we can see it in Italy, Spain, the US. Why is the rate of infection backing off in NSW? Because of the measures Bolt says are unnecessary.

Ultimately this is how it will probably be wound back when the time is right. I think it is easy to think that the economy would be fine if we only isolated the elderly. i would suggest that if we totally lifted the lockdown that a large percentage of the population would still self isolate until things are more under control. I think all those planes stored down the road from me at Avalon would still mostly be sitting there because not many people would want to risk travelling. Let's think about the only isolating the old scenario in terms of aviation. The average young fit pilot would fall into lower risk category although of course they may have children with asthma or perhaps the mother in law lives with them. These young fit people will be out of isolation but must in turn not mix with older family members. Add to this the percentage of people with hypertension and heart disease. I would suggest many folks here would have some blood pressure problems. In many industries the older experienced workers are crucial. Interesting interview with Prof Peter Doherty, probably a little long for most people to watch. He makes the point that there are many experiments being conducted into how to handle this pandemic. Some experiments are failures such as the USA Italy the UK, Spain and some much better experiments such as Israel and New Zealand. He rates us as being in the middle. We can look at these other countries and see what happens when you do too little too late. The more thorough we isolate the quicker we will get to the stage where it is more manageable.

It is important to understand what HCID is and why it was applied to the virus in its early days and why it has been removed and what that means. HCID has a very high bar. "Currently, the HCID list has diseases such as Ebola (fatality rate of 50%), SARS (mortality rate of 11%), MERS (fatality rate of 34.4%), and Nipah virus infection (mortality rate of 40 to 75%)." There are several criteria to qualifies a disease for HCID status and all of have to be satisfied (can post the list if you like) What does it mean: As per the UK government public health information portal, just because COVID-19 is excluded from the HCID list does not mean that the UK does not consider it dangerous. It just means that the disease will not be treated exclusively at the HCID centres. The UK has a network of health centres that are responsible for handling high consequence infectious diseases. Ask yourself this if the change in covids status is a significant downgrade then why you would expect the very department that downgraded it to revise their public health advice. Coronavirus (COVID-19): what you need to do

[ and yet when I go to the Gov website I am greeted by this warning

Can you post a link please. As of Friday there were 2000 although hopes of doubling. "Currently, there are about 2,000 ventilators attached to beds in ICU units around Australia. The government is looking to double those to 4,000. Going off global figures, about 5 per cent of coronavirus cases will become critically unwell and will need ICU care." What's a ventilator and do we have enough of them to fight coronavirus?

Debunked: The UK no longer considers Covid-19 a high consequence infectious disease, but social media posts about it are misleading Covid-19 is not considered a High Consequence Infectious Disease - but it is still vital to observe lockdown

Two reasons to "flatten the curve" rather than let it rip. If we are to provide health workers with the protective equipment they need, the manufacturers need to keep up with demand. Spreading the demand by slowing the infection transmission rate will ensure that health workers can have the equipment they need and deserve. It literally could be the difference between getting a new mask between patients and using the same mask all day. Coronavirus fires up production at Australia's only medical mask factory Vaccines are being trialed at this very moment. If we let it rip there are people of all age groups who will get sick and older people or people with high blood pressure etc who may die because we do not yet have a vaccine or anti viral drug. Getting covid 19 in six months may not entail the same death or complication rate that it does now. What I am saying is it might be better to get the virus after Preventative vaccine trial for COVID-19 healthcare workers than before. Especially when the local hospital is overrun.

No, The CDC Is Not Telling People to Shave to Avoid The Coronavirus

This is what it looks like in er in a city with lockdown. What would it look like without a lockdown? Some friends of ours have a son (a childhood friend of my son) who is a doctor in er in John Hunter Hospital. His parent are worried sick. I am sure he and his parents would much rather he dealt with a number of patients that is within the capacity of the hospital to deal with. I have great sympathy for these health workers and I am not sure if I would be brave enough or conscientious enough not to just walk away. The economy will recover, and I say this as someone who relies on investing for a large part of my income. Businesses will adapt and are adapting. Some businesses will fail and new ones will created. If I compare my losses with the risks these health workers are taking I consider myself lucky.

For those who don't know Breibart News - Breitbart News - Wikipedia It is especially worth read the notable stories section for a list if inaccurate reporting. It is a news source favoured by the far right conspiracy crowd.

Not suggesting it is but in terms of ways of handling it S Korea so far has handled it better than other countries whatever happens in the future. Just comparing the difference between S Korea and Australia I cant see a huge difference. The differences being that some business are still open but with testing. S korea has travel restrictions. We cant necessarily do as much testing at this point. I would be suggest that you and the doctor would disagree about the seriousness. Yes there is something we can do about, we can slow down the demand whilst ramping up the medical facilities Not only is this more humane in terms of not having toi turn people away to die untreated at home but to not burn out the doctors and nurses who are risking their own life to deal with this. Yes I understand the damage to the economy could be more in a prolonged shut down although the damage to the economy started well before the lockdown. In an uncontrolled pandemic people are not going to be out spending money. I ceased my work before the lockdown after doing my own cost risk analysis. The business I work for is now operating successfully online. My super has lost about 50k although last week recovered a little. I don't advocate lockdown lightly and I am not panicking, in fact I am quite optimistic about the economy in the mid term. I am just not willing to throw a bunch of vulnerable people under the bus to keep my super healthy.

Yes indeed sad situation KGwilson My dad who just turned 92 is in care interstate and we can no longer visit him. My mother who used to spend all day every day with him can also not visit. luckily we just squeaked in a visit for his birthday before this got serious. Last night we got a call that he was bleeding from his catheter so he was taken to hospital in considerable pain where they treated him and gave pain relief and sent him back to the care home felling much better. I do think that if this were to happen again in a few weeks time that the hospital will not be an option. I don't advocate social isolation lightly as it mean it is highly unlikely I will see him again but I certainly don't want to be the one that brings covid in to a facility wher4e many would die if the contracted it.

Can you point me to the hospitalization in your link. In actual fact it is not that relevant we know hospitals are struggling overseas and we know they will struggle here if there is an onslaught. There is a drawback, though, as full face masks are considered dangerous by some snorkeling experts due to the fact that there is a risk of excess carbon dioxide building up inside the mask if improper air outtake is provided. Also, despite this idea solving the issue of masks, there will still be a problem with having enough ventilators to go around. ISINNOVA did note that neither the mask, nor the link valves are certified and should thus be used only on the basis of absolute necessity. According to the statement on their website, they stress that this idea is designed for healthcare facilities in cases of full-blown difficult situations where it is not possible to find official healthcare supplies. These are only for milder symptoms that only require non invasive ventilation. Those in respiratory distress require invasive ventilation where a tube is inserted nd the air is humidified and heated. definitely not knocking the idea but the people who would know best are scrambling to get hold of all the ventilators they can What are ventilators and how do they work?

Lets imagine 2 scenarios again I will use made up figures. City general hospital has 500 respirators. Normally only 250 are needed at any one time. Along comes covid 19. . Obviously you would put in an order for many more respirators. The respirators need to be built this will take a month. Lets imaging the number of people requiring a respirator is about the same whether or not we let it rip or space it out. Lets just pick a number and say 500 people will need a respirator. Scenario 1 is slowing the spread so that at anytime there are enough repairers for those who require them (whether for covid or other reason) The second scenario is let it rip so that those people all need a respirator in the same short time period. We are then left with the situation where we have to tell large numbers of people "sorry we don't have a respirator for you but they are in the mail, try again next month." Of course we could relax social distancing a little as our medical system is built up.

[ 20% require hospitalization and 5% of those require ICU Based on overseas experience, about 5 per cent of COVID-19 cases are "critical" and 14 per cent are "severe". This means about 20 per cent of people with COVID-19 will require hospitalisation and 5 per cent will need intensive care, often involving artificial ventilation, where a machine helps you to breathe This chart shows how many Australians could land in ICU with COVID-19

Yes flattening the curve does extend the time but surely you can see that if the rate is slowed the 20% who need to be hospitalised will get that as well as the people in the community who need hospitals anyway. Juts because covid 19 is here it doesn't mean that people don't continue to have heart attacks strokes car accidents , children with illnesses. People of all ages with cancer as well as elective surgery., To use some BS figure just to make a point if 500 000 are going to get covid 19 under either scenario surely if that happens over 1 month hospitals will not cope plus other necessary hospitalizations. Add to that the higher percentage of medical staff who themselves get sick. A slower pace of infection will lead to the load being spread out. We could of course ramp up our medical systems to deal with a surge and if that happened it would be a totally different scenario. If a ramping of of medical services is started then we still need to not overwhelm the system until those extra services are in place

Yes I watched it and found it to be extremely good but I am wondering why you posted it contradict much of what you say. What point were you trying to make? I would urge everybody to watch this video. One of the differences between how South Korea is handling this and how other countries are handling it is that South Korea has the ability to do mass testing on a scale that we cant do at the moment. Although someiness are open they are still practicing social distancing and performing temperature tests. Positive tests result in rigorous quarantine procedures. If we could secure the resources to carry out the mass testing of even asymptomatic people and ensure quarantine for those affected then sure end the lockdown but until then we need to slow the spread. What can we do as individuals? The Doctor gives his advice from the 35 minute mark. I totally agree. "A of 25 February, Daegu officials were aggressively warning residents to take precautions, while allowing private businesses such as restaurants to stay open. As a precautionary measure, many restaurants check the temperatures of their customers before accepting them. It is common for "offices, hotels, and other large buildings" to use thermal image cameras in order to identify people with fevers.[167] All Daegu's public libraries, museums, churches, day-care centers and courts had been closed.[174 "

I agree that it is not over for them yet, most experts in the field believe there will be a second wave, this is the nature of pandemic. A look at a graph will show you that these countries have had a much lower infection rate than The US and Britain. Boris wanted to let it rip to create herd immunity, his mind was changed by the modelling, perhaps you should drop him a line and give him the benefit of your considerable expertise.