octave

A small percentage of a large number is still a large number of individuals. If we take a 10% hospitalization rate (it is much higher for some age groups) then with 10% of lets say 4000 cases we get 400 patients. Remove all covid measures and just let it rip we could have 40000 and 4000 patients.

There is are also issues around staff having to isolate due to being exposed Hundreds of staff isolating after Royal Melbourne Hospital Covid-19 outbreak

Anyway its been fun but the debate starting to go around in circles. These are the things I accept until more evidence comes along, Whilst corvid doesn't kill a large percentage of people who get it, its high contagion rate means that left uncontrolled it could produce a high number of deaths. Of those who done die some people will become quite ill and some will have lasting effects. We can somewhat keep a lid on it with lockdowns however we cant do this forever. We can reduce the rate of spread with hygiene and mask measures. The vaccine is relatively safe, not 100% but safer than many other medical interventions. The vaccine is very effective at reducing death and serious illness. The vaccine is a safer way to induce immunity than to catch covid. Both immunity from the vaccine and from covid are not permanent I don't believe having the vaccine should be mandatory. I do believe that it is OK for a businesses to require its employers to be vaccinated, I favor vaccine passports/proof but could probably be swayed with a good argument. In the US some health insurance companies are increasing premiums for the unvaccinated. If they crunch the numbers and find that the unvaccinated cost more then I am OK with that. Covid should not be political but should rely on hard data. This situation moves fast and things change quickly but the data is the key. I hold in high regard sources such as the CDC. TGA NEJM Lancet etc. As an individual it seems that the hard data suggest that statistically my health outlook is better by being vaccinated and following sensible guidelines,

No and in fact many patients were transferred to other hospitals. This is hardly ideal. Your link refers to 2018 when Westmead ICU was stripped of its accreditation to train junior doctors. In August 3 Sydney hospitals were at capacity and patients diverted to hospitals outside the metro area. These are ambulances that are out of circulation whilst dealing with these situations. Three Western Sydney hospitals, at capacity, turn away COVID patients overnight

There are problems at Wetmead COVID patients queue for hours in ambulances at Westmead Hospital https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/high-covid-caseloads-posing-problems-for-nsw-government-as-health-system-strained/video/fdcfa416fe5ff7e7aeaf5eefa3ce8ffahttps://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/26/nsw-hospitals-warning-nurses-and-staff-flat-out-and-exhausted-as-covid-numbers-soar Letting it run rampant is not an option. Looking overseas we can see health systems struggling. download.mp4

Yes they do kill people and that is why people are still receiving chemo and radio therapy and research into these areas goes on. It is not a choice between one or the other. Also if you are someone with one of those conditions I suspect you would be hoping that when you need it, a hospital bed will be available and the the hospital is not full of covid patients.

The vaccination is not 100% Picking individuals does not tell us much about the overall risk, this is ascertained by looking at larger groups. The important question to be asked is "is it safer to be vaccinated or unvaccinated." I believe that the hard evidence shows that it is safer to be vaccinated. We know that states in the US with lower vax rates are struggling more than states with high vax rate.

And Bill Shakespeare died of what? Hint not covid Figures from the CDC https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/08/health/severe-breakthrough-cases-cdc-studies/index.html if you want to go to the research paper COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among vaccinated and unvaccinated adults ≥18 years – COVID-NET, 13 states, January 1 – July 24, 2021

my understanding is the the proposed system is one where the app checks your vax status and checks you in. As for unvaccinated people being super spreaders the term super spreader has definite definition describing a vaccinated person who is out in public as a super spreader makes no more sense than describing an unvaccinated person as a super spreader. As for vaccinated people believing they 100% protected I suspect the majority understand that no vaccine has ever been 100% effective. The fact is that covid is unlikely to go away anytime soon. It seems that a case of covid doesn't provide long term immunity just like the vax although with the vax we will probably be getting yearly boosters. Whilst the younger unvaccinated may have the odds on their side with a good outcome I would be wondering how the odds would change with each reinfection. Covid will be around for some time to come, the vaccine does reduce hospitalization and death rates. If we cant get rid of it we have to make it a less serious disease. We also have find better treatments for those who do get seriously ill.

Because the unvaccinated person is more likely to need medical resources. Sure one person will not make a big difference to the load in ICU but over a whole population the effect could be big.

Ummm I don't understand. I am not questioning the article. The article points out that yes vaccinated people still can get infected but they are far less likely to get seriously ill. I am not criticizing or questioning that statement. Why do you think I would say REUTERS is some far right conspiracy when it pretty much supports what I have been saying.

Firstly we have to be aware that as the majority of the population is vaccinated then the majority of case will come from the majority of the population. If say 90% of the population is vaccinated and lets say there are equal numbers of vax vs not vax this does not imply that the vaccine is only 50% effective. apart from that, this fact form your link is pretty clear. but they were not falling seriously ill, government data showed, as a rapid ramp-up in inoculations leaves fewer people unvaccinated. While the data shows that vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe cases, it also underscores the risk that even those inoculated could be contagious, so that inoculation alone may not suffice to halt transmission.

You need to present your sources.

The number of covid deaths may seem small compared to other deaths but remember the number of covid deaths is markedly reduced by the measures we are taking against it. in other words covid would dwarf these other causes of death if we just let it rip. And for some of the other examples, cancer is not contagious.

As an analogy it is like we are on a boat that is taking on water. The captain wants us to urgently bail water out of the boat. Most of the passengers can see the sense in this and are putting in a joint effort to save the boat. A few of the passengers are objecting. "You cant tell me what to do" or "you are exaggerating the danger of the boat taking on water" or "we just have to live with a certain amount of water in the boat" or "you people are just afraid and hysterical, it is just water after all" or " we are all going to die one day anyway" or "I don't mind bailing water out but this bucket this isn't the best bucket, I will just wait for a better bucket" or "I will wait to see how successful the people bailing out water are and if it seems to work then I will join in" Not only this but some the "anti bailers" want to convince people not to bail even though they are likely to benefit from the majority. I respect your right not to help bail out the water but just get out of the way and let the rest of us do it. Don't be surprised if the other passengers judge you.

Firstly I do not consider myself to be "fearful". Am I fearful if I wear a seatbelt when I drive? It perhaps could be suggested that some are overly fearful of the vaccination. I acknowledge your personal right to not get vaccinated however rights do come with responsibilities. I joined the RAAF many years ago and during recruit course we were fully vaccinated. You did have the right to refuse however this made you unable to fulfil your duties in terms of being ready to be sent anywhere. If you did not get vaccinated you were shown the door. Is this discrimination. Of course society and the military are not the same thing however jobs come with their own conditions. An airline pilot has onerous medical requirements. Here is an actual situation that we have dealt with this week. My frail elderly mother lives interstate. Being elderly and frail she gets a subsidized cleaner to come once a week to help her. My mother has only just received her second vax. A couple of weeks ago my mother was talking with the cleaner about corvid and the cleaner said they weren't vaxxed and didn't intend to get vaxxed. She was anti vax. I phoned the agency that sent the cleaner and said we wanted someone else who was or intended to get vaccinated. A different cleaner now visits her. I don't know whether the first cleaner was sacked or redeployed. I respect the right of this cleaner not to get vaccinated but it makes them unsuitable to carry out this line of work especially as it provides services to the elderly. This is not discrimination as such but it is about being suitable for the job.

I learned to fly in Thruster TST with a Rotax 503 back in 1988. Greta fun to fly.

Yep I do attempt to read all of them.

For those who want the long detailed answer Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant from the new England Journal of Medicine. Obviously this is a long involved article. It does pay to follow simple figures like how many of those in ICU or have died are unvaccinated or vaccinated. Here is a simple depiction with reference to the situation in the US.

The evidence is good that at the moment the vaccines are extremely effective at preventing deaths. It is reasonably likely that new variants will require tweaks to the vaccine just like the yearly flu vaccine. Covid hospitalizations are mainly amongst unvaccinated people. To be fair many of these people may not yet have been offered the vaccine although this is rapidly changing. We are seeing less deaths given the number of infections compared to last year. One reason for this is that older people have a higher vaccination rate. The average age of covid patients in hospital is younger and some of those younger people are suffering serious consequences. Unless the efficacy of the vaccination changes markedly we can expect that if we get a high percentage of vaccination that people will still catch covid however few will die from it.

The problem we face is huge and complex. It is easy to be an armchair expert and know exactly what should be done. No country has had a perfect response. Partly this is because we have not faced anything similar in the recent past. Throughout the world different governments have used different responses with differing results. I believe are response has not been the best but is a long way from the worst.

My understanding is the system becomes overloaded as numbers grow. Each day in NSW over a thousand new infections are added to the pile to be investigated. The sheets only need to be processed IF the business becomes an exposure site. I agree that it is difficult for businesses to administer although if everyone used the QR check in system I don't see why this should create any more work for the business. I don't disagree with this but the problem we are struggling with is NOW. It is a case of what we do tomorrow not what we do in the future (although that is important also) Reasonable idea however it does not get us out of this current surge. We do know that those in ICU mostly have not been vaccinated (some may not yet have been offered it). The average age of those in hospital is younger than in previous waves because older people are more likely to be vaccinated. What ever the laws or rules the government institutes it comes down to whether individuals take it seriously and abide by them. The recent outbreak started with a limo driver not following the rules.

What I am talking about is the possibility that if I am in an exospore location I can be informed and do what I can to protect my family from possible infection. The track and trace system is far from perfect but personally I will do anything to protect my family. You seem to be somewhat against the vaccine and critical of the tracking and tracing system so what are you suggesting just let it rip? What solution would you propose?

This makes it sound like you believe the only beneficiary of checking in is the government. I check in because if the location I have been in turns out to be an exposure site I want to know about it so I can receive timely medical attention but even more importantly so I don't inadvertently infect a loved one or for that matter a stranger.

5.24 Billion doses, 2.1Billion people fully vaccinated. 26.9% of the worlds population fully vaccinated