Jerry_Atrick

@SplitS - this is a very good point.. And I can't remember the numbers, but the number of bombs he has dropped is less than half of the total that Obama dropped during his tenure, so by extrapolation assuming a second term, he will have droped less in existing conflicts than Obama dropped in both existing and new conflicts. My son keeps telling me that Obama has authorised many drone strikes that have taken out may thousands of innocent civvies as collateral damage and then used the excuse thaty the strikes were necessary to save thousands of lives. I haven't double checked, and even if I did, I would be happy to be corrected. Apparently, DT has authorised a handful of similar strikes and collateral damage has been much less. Of course, it could be because drone and weapons tech has moved on... but... But, and I admit, without the facts and only playing devils advocate, could his inaction had cost more lives? He withdrew troops from Syria and that has since escalated with a higher rate of civvie losses than before. It was also seen as a betrayal of the Kurds - assumed to be supported by the US to be left alone against a far mightier foe. OK, Obama may have started it, but the US started it.. so they should have supported it until its conclusion. While not diminishing the importance of any life lost - allied or or other, allied losses tend to be restricted compared to others in such wars of late, and given the USA's position in the "free" (aka Western) world, and the leadership role they assume, are they justified in pulling out. Also, has there been new conflicts that have started, or have existing ones just kept rolling on? BTW, that is not to say his predecesors were saints.. Far from it. I can't speak to Obama, but G-double-ya and Tony Blair went into Iraq totally unjustified and in my opinon, both should be tried at the Hague - they may or may not be guilty - but justice does require a formal hearing. And the shennanigans at Guantanomo Bay has to be investigated - as a collective, we are better than the allegations. And, of course, Gulf War 1 was not about coming to an ally's defence, but defending the flow of oil.. We know that. I have always said DT has done some good things. Some have said a clock says the right time twice a day, but on reflection, that analogy is not appropriate - the clock has stopped working; DT continues to work. He got Kim Jon Ng talkiing (ultimatley, it failed, but at least provided a sliver of hope), he has got the NATO countries investing in defence at the levels they should, he has brokered (probably with his aides) a significant middle east peace deal. OK, some say it is symbolic, but one should not underestimate the significance of the Saudis allowing an El Al passenger carrying flight through their airspace nor the UAE allowing them to land (and presumably providing the appropriate level of security) in their country. Of course, if I were Israel, I would be thinking are they being lulled into a false sense of security - especially given their leader - but DT can take credit for pulling a rabbit out of the hat. Unfortunately, he has too many other policy directions and actions which more than cancel it out. Climate change, domestic division, open racism, cronyism, rigging the postal service to frustrate postal votets (so, corruption), and the list goes on. He has a disposition which grates a lot of people and his command of communication is not great - and while we would expect a press to see through that, unfortunatley, it doesn't. The big concern is he undermines democracy and the rule of law in his own country. The US is polarsied as is the western world... His denial of science and although I will not say the 220K deaths are all his fault, as a leader and steppingin fron (has he proclaims), the steps he has led his population through seem to be the wrong ones - on many counts. |There has been no new skirmish/war for him to deal with.. Maybe he has bullied all minor countured into submission (and maybe not).. If one does flare up while he is in power, it will be interesting to see how he does.

BTW - still think JB will fall marginally short.

This is probably more for socialaustralia.com.au, but given the last few posts, I will put it here. I find this the most balanced discussion about the presidential race and it does discuss some of the above:

That one!

The judiciary committee will hear matters it deems important or that are brought to it.. Given it is a committee of the senate. my guess is Republicans brought it., but unless there was malice from Twitter, I would welcome it if I were a democrat. They are probably doing this under a legal obligation which requires social media sites to remove or flag content that is fake news. In fact, after DTs tweets or posts a couple of weeks ago were removed/tagged, he has been calling for the removal of the law, which, also calls for incitement and hate speech to be removed within a reasonable period of time.. So a president is actively encouraging the removal of a law that aims to circumvent intentional and damaging fake news, hate speech incitement to commit crimes without suggesting how better to handle these (I guess seeing his rhetoric amounts to indirect incitement, I can see why he would want the law repealed). Not only has Twitter been removing/tagging DT and his henchpeoples' posts, Facebook and Google have, too.. So if you're a theorist, you can probably smell a conspiracy somewhere.. Just because an action has been referred to, or looked into by the Senate Judicial Review Committee does not mean that the action is invalid, against the law, or discriminating (which is what BB wants to present). It just means it should be investigated. Frankly, as I said, if I were a democrat, I would be happy as I doubt Dorsey, whos business was flagging unil DT was elected, would be stupid enough to be that cavalier in his treatment of Trump and his cronies accounts.. Of course, I would only be surprised if he was.. not shocked. And if the investigation determines it was valid under whatever the law was, well, DT will look worse to the swinging voters.. and he will just continue.. Further happiness to the democrats. Personally, Trump has done so much wrong, that Biden's son - now reformed from a coke head (where DT is still DT) has little bearing - guess what at least that family can say they are human but fix things when they are wrong.. I am not so sure about the Trump family (maybe they are so wrong, that it is not fixable - and his kids aren't all clean, either). On the taxes - yes, Kerry Packer correctly said something along the lines of "You're an idiot if you don't do everything you can to minimise your taxes". The fact it is so lop-sided is a failure of the system and I will not blame anyone from maximising their resourcces to legally achieve what they want to. But, I am sure KP paid a lot more tax than DT... And USD$750 in taz over many years to find the private lifestyle seems a little foul of doing it all within the law. Back to the Judicial Committee hearings.. until anything comes of it, it is just another hearing.. they have plenty of them..

OME - sorry, but i am on the bandwagon with this one. I had a large number of quotes lined up, but the system lost them, and I am not trawling through them again. So I am going off memory. Firstly, the way in which the question was phrased was that it was a day of exceptionally stable conditions with relatively low humnidity and a decent gap between OAT and dew point - that one had set eveything for cruise and everything (including the ASI) was where it should be. The emphasis on all of this was that most of us interpreted these as being the same at the time of noticing the deviation from flight progress. So, yes, you could normally say that after 30 minutes noticing the difference in expected and actual GS, the IAS would be a thing to check, but if this is the case, I think the question is disingeniously worded to trick us into assuming it was constant - I can't believe most of us would have come to the same conclusion if it were any other way. For me, the other thing that led me to that conclusion that the power or throttle setting at least was constant (yes, there could be a magneto or some other fuel/air/spark system issue) was that the friction nut is set firm. I have never flown with a firm friction nut (no puns, please) and even in some fairly rough turbulence, have never had a throttle move on its own accord. So to me, highlighting it was firm was highlighting power at least, and assuming a fixed pitch, revs was constant (given we were already thinking ASI is constant). Also, even if it were firm and somehow in those conditions unwound, unless the throttle is spring loaded, there is a tiny chance (and in my experience, particularly given the conditions, no chance) it would change the power setting. Of course, a magneto can fail in flight and I have had that happen, with a detectable drop in RPM (in a Warrior). So, yes, I feel the question inferred that the power and ASI was reading as expected after 30 minutes.. And in answer to your question about not doing checks for 30 minutes on those superb flights - er - no - never waited that long. And there are two reasons.. FREDA/CLEAR checks are not really nav related but systems related.. Secondly, I don't want to fly with a fuel imbalance, and thirdly, I want early warning of systems packing up. If I have have waited even 10 minutes to do those even on the most familiar routes I take, I would be incredibly surprised. And I now have a GPS which means I am often checking I am at least on track and it will tell me if my speed is off. Although, I take the point, that was not in the question. Finally, in my tongue-in-cheek and other's more prudent answers, there was at least a strong inference, if not an explicit statement of assuming the VSI was reading as expected... this was not confirmed or rebuked... so for those answers (in so far as they were correct given those assumptions), the answers are just as valid as the assumption you had made. And asserting ignorance or falling short is not fair because that assumption was made. We are basically saying that we checked the IAS (in my answer I said I tapped the ASI), it was as expected so we moved immediatley onto other root causes. In other words, the question was worded in such a way that it was inferred we all checked the ASI (and power/RPM setting) and as it was reading as expected, we started down a path that tried to find faults in pressure systems or the gauges themselves...

Clearly, this is a tech failure.. So as the GPS is nothing more than a fancy computer, diagnostics would start with recyling it (switching it on and off - not turfing it for another) and if that didn't correct the GS, tap it on the screen a few times where the GS is displayed. If it was still showing a low GS, then I would remain suspicious of the unit, but just to be sure, check the ASI isn't busted by taping it on the glass (but not too hard).. Seems OK.. Of course, it could be alternate static air is open and should be closed, but as we are so diligent in our pre-flight checks, that would never happen... Maybe - as in some a/c such as the Warrior; drain the static lines as well... Nah.. we did that during pre-flight. Once done, it would be a precuationary landing and as per the user guide, calling the GPS authorised service representative and wait for a repair guy to take a look...

I wold think there might be some wriggle room in the prices; TB-20s and 21s often come to the market at higher prices as owners like to keep them.. The one on Controller.com has a TT of 890hrs and 150 on a new engne.. That leaves a lot of time left... and assuming all checks out OK on the airframe, bits aren't going to start to require replacement for some time. As it's N reg, you can get a pigy back FAA licence - would you need to modify it for Aus conditions? In the UK we can import them with VAT only.. no need to convert to European spec (even on a EASA licence, though if we want to fly internationally, we have to have the FAA piggy back licence as a minimum). Although, the radios wold have to be upgraded to 8.33khz spacing. Another option, although a little slower, is the Piper Dakota.. 143kt cruise (book), fixed gear 235hp. Also not too common as owners love them... they are sturdy (er.. except for that spar inspection AD), not often used by schools and generally well maintained.. Comfy touring 4 seater with some speed.. And there is the AA5B Tiger is 140kts.. although these sound a little too slow for your mission. Another a/c to think about is the Rockwell Commander 114- book cruise at 160kts, and one for sale in VIc for 125K.. Seems cheap - they advertise here for about as many £. No idea of maintenance costs, etc. BTW, Ian Baillee a/c sales, amongst others, are looking for a new home and that may be the reason they have been unresponsive.. https://www.australianflying.com.au/latest/eviction-notices-sent-to-moorabbin-operators

Have you considered at TB21-TC which has something like a 170kt 75% cruise... the TB-20s are about 150kt.. They provide great visibility, then Gen Twos are roomy and you can often (in the northern hemisphere)get them kitted out with a Farmin EFIS. There aren't too many for sale, and you will prob have to look overseas for them... I have flown TB-20s, Bonanzas, PA32s (Cherokee 6s and Lances), Commanche (250s), and of these, the TB20s are the most comfy. The TB21TC is a turbo-charged TB20. Also, Socata still manufacture spares for them, but they can be pricey. I wouldn't worry about whether it is a 4 or 6 seater... if you have at least 4 seats (and it can take 4 adults and luggage with a decent amount of fuel), you have your mission a/c... If you would consider 6 seaters, the PA32 range is very good also... The 235 versions are OK.. but I would go for the 300. And still has a spares network. Best of luck...

Here is the link to the FAA Manuals.. Note, there are different publications that cover different parts of the theory requirement. Note that weather and Nav will be northen hemisphere based.and of course, charts and any procedures/air law will be USA based. https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/ A quick check of ebay (aus) has some Trevor Thom manuals for sale...

Sadly, Sully isn't a presidential candidate..

Hi Ian, Very sorry to hear about the deterioration to your eyes.. I can only echo what has already been sent... Thanks for maintaining the site despite various challenges - this one the most important.. All the very best wishes, Lance

Or the locks have changed and your now ex-best mate, Davo, sleeps where you used to...

That looks like the icon.. .I think I would rather just do the real thing looking at the potential cost of that ;-)

@Bennyboy320 - can't seen to view the attachments..

Is this a confession? Oh.. there are a couple of lines that I shall foresake...

Well, apparently, it does happen:

Surely it must have been bumpy as....

Is that all we have to choose from? I have about 7 of them... Also... Forgot to check NOTAMS and almost breached a royal flight (you don't have then in Aus, but when a Royal wants to take a jolly, there is a 10nm radius of moving class D airspace from the point of the aircraft... ) Also took off after airport hours (allowed) when GA was shut down (not allowed) in the South East of the UK because Obama decided he wanted to helictoper in to see Stonehenge after a G20 summit in Wales or something. Thankfully I was able to talk my way out of the possible licence suspension as when I contacted F'Borough, they sent me back to my airfield, whcih I complied with and the NOTAM was at short notice because the decision by Obama to see Stonehenge was also at short notice. Forgot to set the area QNH, which meant I ended up breaching prohibited airspace over a nuclear power stations. Thakfully I was working at that powerstation at the time and only got a reprimand. I should have planned a bigger margin. I picked a fight with and AFISO (aerodrome flight information service officer), and thankfully won.. He was a complete posterior hole that enjoyed his power over the radio, but in person he was a coward. Flew across an international FIR boundary but forgot to lodge the flightplan. (well.. I remembered to lodge it, but as I taxied out, I thought I had done it). Apparently read back a hold to cross an active runway, then proceeded to cross it... Thankfully noticed a C310 starting its roll and jumped on the brakes. Tower berated me on the radio and I made up some excuse that my feet slipped off the brakes and it lurched forward, so no call to visit ATC. However, I am dead certain my readback was to cross the active runway. At Moorabbin, on 17L (used for training), as a solo student, I was given clearnce to take off.. I saw an a/c on finals so declined the clearance due to aircraft on final. He may have been a way out, but as a student, I thought I would be cautious (there was no "don't delay" in the instruction). I guess ATC didn't like that because they made me wait until what seemed like all the traffic had left the circuit...

G'Day, Glen - and welcome to the forums! I don't know too much about RAA regs, but sometimes an airport may put their own restirctions of the types of aircraft allowed to visit. This can be for many reasons. I checked the Canberra airport site and found the Light Recreational Aircraft/Light Commercial Aircraft conditions of use (https://www.canberraairport.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AVI-LRA-LCA-application-CA-conditions-of-use-June-2020_PROOF-02.pdf) which does no differentiate RAA/GA in their definition of Light Recreational Aircraft. They also have a permit application (https://www.canberraairport.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/AVI-Light-Recreational-Aircraft-LRA-Annual-Permit-Application-Form-v1-1-July-19-ID-32225_FA-ID-54766-2.pdf), and although it doesn't further define what they mean, it references CASA as an operator.. There is a customer services number - probably best to give them a call.

I think this sums it up...

When people trend to be losing the logical side of the argument, they resort to mockery and other forms of baseless ridicule or irrelevance to try and affect the debate. Remember Trump in his initiak days? How many Journos did he call a "bad, bad person" without actually answering the questions of providing credible facts? He does it today. We all mock trump for this, but some people exhibit the same tendencies. As I mentioned, point us to the credible evidence that suggests otherwise - until then - I would suggest it is those who can't that are not willing to see reason or change their mind..

A mate of mine, originally from Toowoomba, has one - G-ZION (google it - you will see photos of it and if you google G-INFO (CAA's aircraft database), you can check out all the details. It is a 180HP model, fixed undercarriage, 1972. I've been in it a couple of times and it is a good machine. EJB looks to be a retractable; G-ON is fixed gear from memory.. Apart from that they should be more or less the same with a slightly different useable load. While you're not going to need a g-suit, they are no slouch for the type of aircraft they are. They have a bigger cabin than the C172 and people thought they could just stuff the cabin full like they could the 172... big mistake. The numbers look OK to me, but I am sure a little googling will work it out for you - are there any STCs on it? Avweb had a good article on them: Cessna 177 Cardinal I would certainly look at a later model... Mate's aircraft is here: Cessna 177B Cardinal, G-ZION / 177-01690, Private :. This was before he owned it. As with any used aircraft (ir any used mechanical item), you are buying what the previous owners did and did not do in terms of mainternance, and in the case of aircraft, g-forces. On the first annual, the exhaust had to be replaced and a few other wearable items.. so far, as far as I know, nothing major (well, beyond a few thousand £).

Agreed OME... it is getting heated... And it really just goes in circles. But since what was a light-hearted joke about those in Vic (Mexico) making it across any border by air since the re-lockdown has since morphed into [yet another] debate about the appropriateness of the lockdown. There is little to do with aviation so maybe mods should consider locking down this thread and transferring it to socialaustralia.com.au? I have noticed traffic there is really light lately... That said, I'll bite... The main arguments against the lockdown seem to be: It only affects the aged and those with co-morbid conditions. Not entirely true. There were young people with no identfied (after autopsy) co-morbid conditions.. these are reasonably rare, but tell that to the families of the victims. Of course, I agree we shouldn't put the world on hold for that alone. For the aged care facilities - they were in lock down but the infection still spread from carers; And being in an aged care facilitiy doesn't mean you're going to drop dead in a short time.. My stepfather was in one for about three years; my partner's grandmother was in one for about two.. There were many in these facilties that were there longer. Finally, co-morbid does not meen a condition that is life threatening nor life shortening. It simply means, " relating to or denoting a medical condition that co-occurs with another", or from wikipedia: " comorbidity is the presence of one or more additional conditions often co-occurring with a primary condition. " Bronchopneumonia is commonly cured - yes people die from it.. Many respiratory and other organ conditions may be chronic but not materially life shortening. I get the feeling to some people co-morbitiy means another condition that threatens or shortens life.. Also, wikipedia is not the deifnitive, but it states that co-morbitiy is not the primary condition.. Someone posted an April BBC article reporting the risk of COVID and the fact that they report a COVID death even if the co-morbid condition is the primary cause. It then went on to say that the primary cause is in the majority was COVID... And what it didn't say is that the numbers are adjusted up to 3 days later to cover late reports and corrections to the cause. Only a small amount of the population get it, and it is only fatal in a small percentage. Well, I would agree, especially in Australia, only a small percentage get COVID. But this will mainly be because Australia went comparatively hard and fast saving a situation like that which played out in the US or the UK. This should give you a view of the current numbers in the US. We can see almosy 1.5% of the populaton have contracted it so far, and that almost 3.3% of those have died. Compare that to Australia, where you have 0.08 percent of the population and the fatality rate is up to 1.24%. The US is more densly populated, but US cities in sq miles are as large as ours and over 60% of the Aussie population are reside in the state capital cities so there is ample desnity for the virus to spread in our popualtion centres.. especially since entry into the country is probably 99.9% at these cities. The point is the US had at best patchy controls, Australia was a lot better... The stats speak for themselves. And of course, Aussies knew the healing properties of dunny paper.. Of yeah, look at the graph on the Aussie chart.. from a very small number of cases, a very quick increase in the daily rate..This would indicate the exponential infection rate (a curve would be shown on cumulative numbers). This shows the rate at which it will spread ifg ledt in mild check... Note, the US hosptial system couldn't deal with the crisis.. that may be a good indicator as to why their fatality rate is almost three times ours... And their infection rate is what times ours? Thousands of people die per year from influenza, but we don't take these sorts of precautions: Yes, this is true. According to the WHO, up to 650,000 per year die from respiratry complications associated with the flu (so that is quite a lot more than those atrtrubuted directly to the flu, and this should atone for the co-morbitiy issue with COVD deaths). If you look at the Australia and the US charts above, you will see that globally we have exceed 692,000 deaths and this is only 8 months old.. Also, this doesn't include deaths from subsequent complications brought on by the disease. I think on all counts, it has already exceeded the death count with the flu... It won't be long until the flu has a bit to do to catchup. I looked up fatality rates for influenza and got a lot of sites that were convoluted, so couldn't be bothered to crystalise the numbers to get a comparison. But, note, there is no coordinated effort (other than a voluntary flu jab) to contain the flu; there is one for COVID. So numbers not quite like for like. The numbers for COVID-19 appear to bear a rather grim projection should some serious action not be taken. This is an overreaction that will wreck the economy. This is a prediction, and there is probably some evidence we can draw from the previous SARS epidemic and maybe even the Spanish Flu (incidentally which did not originate in Spain, but was the worst affected as they didn't implement the lockdown measures of the day). The UK is talking about a V-shaped recovery - i.e. quick to decline, but quick to recover. This article from a couple of weeks ago talks to it.. However, there is concern it won't be V shaped.. I agree.. it will be a shallower curve on the upside because people are tentative and jobs have been lost, companies will have closed, etc. People (in the UK) don't frequent pubs, cafes, etc at anywhere near the rate the did pre-COVID. This month, the UK government will foot 1/2 the bill of all in-restaurant/cafe/pub meals.. and so far no one I know has taken up the offer. People will spend less while the virus is perceived to the a threat. They will not go out as much, etc. The longer the threat, the slower will be a recovery. Also, the more people who die, the more of the economy you lose (except for funeral directors and cemetries/crematoriums). Yes, there is public borrowing that will have to be paid back. yes there are SMEs that will close their doors forever (mine is probably one of those). But at the other end of it, new SMEs will grow (hopefully a new one for me), the government issued debt is the cheapest you can get at the moment, and allowing the virus to persist will keep economic activity suppressed and require higher borrowing and more SME failures than there should be and recovery will take a lot longer. etc. The collateral damage (e.g. mental health) will be much higher than the lives it saves: This one has merit.. but as we don't know how many lives are being saved by the lockdown versus how much more collateral damage is happening, it is very hard to make a true judgement. The main concerns I hear of are mental health deteriorration leading to suicide, and the fact that there are much lower rates of cancer diagnosis meaning many cancers may go undetected that can be saved. This is a real issue where to be honest, a balance has to be found and the lack of numbers that can be causal make it difficult to assess. However, should COVD rates increase, even without a complete rip through the community, there will undoubtedly be a lot of mental anguish and possible suicides as a result. Also, the ability to treat other medical conditions will be severly affected because COVID wil ltake up so much medical resources.. so I am on the fence on this one in the absence of data Each state is doing their own thing: Yep - I get it.. that is the law of the country (and that of the UK, too). And I agree with it.. It is compeltely stuffed to have different, albeit similar approaches for the one country (or in the case of the UK and Europe, I would even say one land mass) as no virus really gives a toss about artifical borders put up by man. Also, it is whacky that I can't go to either side of a line on a map based solely on there being a line, despite all the factors being nearly identical across the line and there being no additional risk... It is nuts.. but that does not say the measures being taken shouldn't be being taken... Yep.. they should at least be coordinated and consistent. Also, if it were Australia wide, we have to accept that in areas there is a breakout (such as Melbourne and now Sydney looks like it has a cluster), then localised lockdowns under a Federal response would be appropriate, would it not? Duing lockdown, we should be able to go flying: If we have our own plane at our own or a local airstrip (say within a 5km radius) and we go flying ourselves or with someone in the immediate household, yes I agree. But as Turbs pointed out, there are too many rec activities that may or may not fall into the safe category, naming all those that are allowed or those that are not (and for certain activities the conditions under which they are or are not) is just not practical. And as we have seen, too many will try it on if they think they can. Even in the case of flying, say you are within 5k of Moorabbin.. and you want to rent a plane from RVAC? Probably shouldn't allow that because the risk of contact will be too high.. Now what about going to Redcliffe or some other country airport with a moderate amount of activity, or even low, but shared (e.g. rentals, syndicates, etc). You can see the line gets blurred and it is very difficult to enforce. Yes, the state government has allowed fishing (maintaining social distancing) and some other things.. can't recall.. Maybe Dan likes fishing.. or maybe they have looked at what the majority of people do. I understand the frustration of being needlessly grounded.. I know folks outside of Melbourne can probably go flying... but this was a real issue day 1 or the original lockdown. Multiculturism is increasing the spread because they won't comply: If this is the case, it still doesn't stop the requirement for the lockdown and it is an error to conflate the two. Anyway, I understand there are those of different religious and cultural backgrounds have been breaching lockdown. However, there are also a lot of caucasion Aussies doing it, too. Bunnings' Karen, the couple who drove to Orbost or wherever and were infected; and the infamous Wodonga Burger Run... - Seriously? From the above, I think a natural human trait is not to be kept isolated and try it on... BTW, if you are taking your news from Sky or other "right wing" press, maybe you want to watch in full about the Melbourne based South Sudanese treatment by the such press here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZCfpvP1TSg:367 Other miscellaneous topics: The three main ones are.. "for the mathematically illiterate..", "... well said"., and something like they'll never listen and won't change their mind. Well. I think the above prose (of which I have spent too much time on to be honest) shows that at least I listen to the arguments - both sides! My mind hasn't been changed because I like to back up opinion (or more accurately, intuition) with facts in these cases. There is no one absolute right way to handle this... There isn't really a precedent in Australia nor most of the developed world in handling this in modern times. So, it has to be a balancing act - and a difficult one at that. However, from all the data the countries who are taking the harder line are medically and economically recovering faster than those who aren't. As for the "mathematically illiterate", let me know which statistical technique you would like. Hist Sims will be difficult, We could use tobit or Beta -logit probability methods;' monte-carlo simulations (path or non-path dependent), even Bayes Theorem if you like... probably path dependent monte carlo or Bayes is the most applicable. But the simple ratios and maths are already illuminating. Now, I would never attempt these moreadvanced techniques with medical data as I have no idea of the data issues/smoothing techniques, bias, etc. But that is what the professional modellers do and while I can guarantee they won't get it 100% right, so far the comaprison between countries points to them getting it largely right (which any statistical method is about, which is why VCE maths for a while changed from pure and applied to change and approximation). And we certainly don't rely on questionable sources of statistical analysis against government (or in some of the above, wikipedia - which is not so reputable but at least can be corrected). Yes, we could isolate oldies (of which a few of us are on here, which would mean no flying) and those with known co-morbid conditions. This may slow the fatality rate, but it ignores that even that isolation requires some form of interaction, that the virus will still continue to spread, herd immunity is not provem, there will be spillover into quarantine, people will shun Aus because they don't want to get it because it will still be in the community with Aus, we won't go out as much or do the discretionary things as much because we don't want to tempt fate, etc. Sorry fellas, at this stage, you haven't convinced me it is a good idea not to go for lockdowns and eradication or live with hard lockdowns for clusters as they form.. yet.. Of course, an anti-viral inhibitor or decent viral vaccination may change that... Give us good evidence and you will at least change my mind. Of course, with reputable data to show the medical and economic effects won't be worse inthe long run will change my mind, too.