The latest message from RA-Aus contained this gem.
"This weekend I was supposed to fly out to William Creek. Something I have been so looking forward to for months. My plane is literally packed, fuelled and ready to go. I’ve been watching the weather for a week or two, watching trends, looking at the entire route, effect of weather on diversion airports etc. On Wednesday I made the call to not go because the weather in Canberra was going to be marginal for my departure on Thursday morning and there are also very strong winds forecast for my departure from William Creek on Sunday. When looking at the trip in a systematic way, consulting aviator friends and colleagues, identifying threats, and weighing up risk vs reward, I’m comfortable that this is the right decision for me."
The problems here, that I can identify are as follows.
a) There was no reference to written personal minimums. Personal minimums are written in knots, feet, metres, minutes and octas. "Marginal" and "very strong" are not proper ways of making go/no-go decisions.
b) He should have checked the weather on Thursday morning, not on Wednesday day.
c) About weighing up risk and reward, my understanding is that the when the RFDS decide if they can make a flight or not, the pilots are not told if the trip is an emergency or routine. They have a deliberate policy of not considering risk and reward. To be fair, I have different minimums for flying alone and with my family.
Then, there was this gem.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defines aeronautical decision making (ADM) as “a systematic approach to the mental process used by aircraft pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances” (FAA Advisory Circular 60-22). I ask you all to apply a systematic approach to decision making, to weigh up risks and take the time you need to make good decisions so you do come home to your family and friends. There is a wealth of information on Aviation Decision Making including the abovementioned Advisory Circular and this article provided through SKYbrary.aero by the Flight Safety Foundation.
The link was to here https://skybrary.aero/articles/decision-making-training-oghfa-bn. The article guilty of my pet hate: not being concrete and specific AND not so abstract that it gives some overall insight. Instead, it provides a middling level of abstraction, talking about things, rather than actually saying what they are.
Then, there was this, also a gem.
When I started in this role back in January 2021, it was midway through COVID-19 and La Nina hadn’t yet arrived on the East Coast. The result being that from September 2020 until May 2022 there were no fatal accidents – a record we were very proud of. We’ve now had four accidents where four RAAus members have lost their lives since May.
There is no recognition of random variation and regression to the mean. If COVID and La Nina were so obviously the cause of these things, then it would have been possible to predict that there would not have been fatalities during lockdown and that there there would be a spike after May. Nobody made the prediction, for obvious reasons. Sheesh.
Lastly, "preempt" doe not mean what he said it does. To be fair, this is the new usage.