So if we cant fly till Xmas (accept the premise) - Do we expect many sport aircraft being put up for sale.

[SSCBD]

For example do we expect if we cant fly for 6 months lets say-

1. Flying schools going broke - not paying lease/loan on aircraft

2. People that have lost jobs and cant afford it any more so the plane must go.

3. Just losing interest in flying and to have a plane sitting in a hangar

 

Your thoughts?

[Flying Binghi]

Why cant we fly till Xmas ?....?

[SSCBD]

Why cant we fly till Xmas ?....?

1. as I said above - accept the premise

2. Government has said we may be this way till Xmas - Where have you been?

[Flying Binghi]

1. as I said above - accept the premise

2. Government has said we may be this way till Xmas - Where have you been?

 

 

Our government has ordered diesel powered submarines that wont be delivered for 10 or so years.................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[Thruster88]

I don't know what will happen, but if RV6's get cheap enough I might scratch that itch.?

 

FB you don't have to post your xxxxing xxxx in every thread, we get it.

[mnewbery]

No but I expect to see a lot of rusty pilots and "rusty" planes coming out of hibernation. The expected results are well understood. I'm not looking forward to that stream of bad news around the same time as Christmas lunch and the start of the Sydney To Hobart race

[poteroo]

The possible scenarios are many.

 

There will be hundreds, if not thousands, of experienced jet and prop-jet aircrew out of a job within 3-6 months. That will kill all the big flying schools because there will be no realistic professional career path for years. There will be hundreds of very highly qualified instructors driving Uber. Career prospects for instructors are gloomy atm.

 

We might see a return of interest in recreational flying, and RAAus schools may get back into action by end of year - but it will be very slow. Many will fold. Unless you own the school aircraft, hangar and buildings outright, the going will be tough.

 

There will be zero demand for new RAAus aircraft for probably 2 years. Many owners will gradually quit their aircraft because of costs, and having their own finances very tight.. Probably more interest in shared or group ownership in our future. There will be thousands of GA aircraft available as the recession bites in the US, but with our A$ where it is - it won't be attractive to import.

 

As to prices in the used market - probably less owners likely to sell immediately as there won't be many buyers, so why slash prices? Many aircraft were changing hands late in 2019 at much less than the advertised price, so the market probably won't drop very much later this year.

 

Cheaper fuel will be nice, but the big items such as insurance, and hangarage are unlikely to reduce. I think there will be many more hangars for sale, and many more spaces available, especially on larger airports because charges are likely to rise as landlords recoup.

 

In conclusion, this CV event is looking like a disaster for aviation at every level. Not 'happy days' from me atm, but, it will pass, and life goes on.

[dlegg]

I think your right there poteroo and we haven't seen the depths of the disaster unfolding at the present time. Definitely not happy days on the way

[Student Pilot]

Most of us are old enough to remember the fuel crises of the 70's, that was a minor glitch compared to this virus crises. Then when they said there was only enough fossil fuel left in reserves to last 30 years, 4 cylinder cars were all the rage and you could buy a low milage Ford LTD for $300.

If things get as bad as people are saying then there will be a lot of stuff sold/traded or even abandoned. Look at the sub prime crises, houses were just walked away from with money owed being many times the value of the building.

People who owe a lot of money are in for some pain. I see a property developer asking a restaurant owner for his months rent of 64k (how can you make any profit paying that a month!!), there are many examples of pressure being put on people to pay rent.

When people can't afford rent/food, hobbies will cease to be a pastime. If this crises goes as long as they say then there will be a lot of cheap aircraft.

[Flying Binghi]

Don’t worry. There are plenty of Chinese communist party insiders cashed up and ready to buy any distressed businesses...?

 

 

 

 

 

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[onetrack]

The Chinese have been purchasing high quality assets in Australia for the last 20-25 years. They own a sizeable portion of our housing, another sizeable portion of our agricultural and pastoral land, and many businesses producing everything from minerals to timbers, to grain processing, dairy, meat and sugar.

The Chinese have invested over $10B alone, just into the Sino Iron Magnetite mine in W.A. They have a 99 yr lease on the Port of Darwin, own cattle stations, vast areas of farmland in the W.A. wheatbelt (as well as other States), and are one of the largest operator in the Ord River Irrigation Area - where they are spending $700M, including $450M on a new sugar mill.

Company names to look up include Beidahuang Group, COFCO, New Hope Group, Bright Food, Shanghai Zhongfu, Shandong Ruyi Group, and Luzhou Laojiao.

 

But if you really want to see who has the greatest influence and investment in Australia, you only need to look at our Big Brother on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

 

https://www.smartcompany.com.au/finance/economy/chinese-us-influence/

[Thruster88]

The Chinese have been purchasing high quality assets in Australia for the last 20-25 years. They own a sizeable portion of our housing, another sizeable portion of our agricultural and pastoral land, and many businesses producing everything from minerals to timbers, to grain processing, dairy, meat and sugar.

The Chinese have invested over $10B alone, just into the Sino Iron Magnetite mine in W.A. They have a 99 yr lease on the Port of Darwin, own cattle stations, vast areas of farmland in the W.A. wheatbelt (as well as other States), and are one of the largest operator in the Ord River Irrigation Area - where they are spending $700M, including $450M on a new sugar mill.

Company names to look up include Beidahuang Group, COFCO, New Hope Group, Bright Food, Shanghai Zhongfu, Shandong Ruyi Group, and Luzhou Laojiao.

 

But if you really want to see who has the greatest influence and investment in Australia, you only need to look at our Big Brother on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

 

https://www.smartcompany.com.au/finance/economy/chinese-us-influence/

 

Can we have just one thread where only the topic of aircraft is discussed, there are already threads for covid-19 political BS. Thanks all.

[Flying Binghi]

The Chinese have been purchasing high quality assets in Australia for the last 20-25 years. They own a sizeable portion of our housing, another sizeable portion of our agricultural and pastoral land, and many businesses producing everything from minerals to timbers, to grain processing, dairy, meat and sugar.

The Chinese have invested over $10B alone, just into the Sino Iron Magnetite mine in W.A. They have a 99 yr lease on the Port of Darwin, own cattle stations, vast areas of farmland in the W.A. wheatbelt (as well as other States), and are one of the largest operator in the Ord River Irrigation Area - where they are spending $700M, including $450M on a new sugar mill.

Company names to look up include Beidahuang Group, COFCO, New Hope Group, Bright Food, Shanghai Zhongfu, Shandong Ruyi Group, and Luzhou Laojiao.

 

But if you really want to see who has the greatest influence and investment in Australia, you only need to look at our Big Brother on the other side of the Pacific Ocean...

 

 

Way, way back in the 1940’s there were a Kittyhawk pilot that took off outa Darwin airdrome to stop a mob of bombers heading our way.

 

Now, I’m thinking here - should I be worried about a country that sent us even more pilots just like that P40 pilot, or should I be worried about a country that sent us a virus.... thinking, thinking........?

 

 

 

 

 

.

[facthunter]

Keep thinking, but don't make thinking like you compulsory. WE are a lot smarter than you think. Nev

[SSCBD]

10AM TODAY - scmo PM: We have a long way to go

"We have bought Australia valuable time. To chart a way out over the next six months. But there are no guarantees, and it could well take far longer.

 

"Our country will look different on the other side, but Australians will always be Australians.

 

"Flattening the curve, buying more time, time other countries haven't had, and we have seen the devastating effects on those nations and their people.

 

"Preparing our health system for the challenge is to come. Putting in place the big economic lifeline and the buffers for Australians, in what for so many will be the toughest ever year in 2020.

[Yenn]

The only people who are going to sell their planes are those who have big commitments, such as mortgages to keep paying. For those who are cashed up, with no debt it would be a buyers market. But how many of them are there.

As I see it recreational pilots are mostly around retiree age and that looks like the least disadvantaged group in our society.

I think most of the pilots I know actually own their planes outright.

I consider myself very lucky to have sold my RV4 at the end of Feb. I wouldn't have a chance of selling it now.

[onetrack]

We are heading into a serious economic recession, and I'm pretty sure a lot of people thought we were heading that way, long before the COVID-19 virus slammed into us.

The figures show that a lot of people were paying down debt at a higher rate than normal, and also repaying credit cards at a better rate than normal. Total CC debt was actually going down for a change, early this year.

 

A lot of people are going to come out of this exercise a fair bit poorer than they thought they were. Mortgages and a lot of debt may be getting deferred by banks being "good fellas" - but those debts are still incurring interest.

And that interest is being calculated on amounts owed that are static - so no reduction in either interest or principal until some semblance of normality returns - probably around Sept or Oct.

 

A sizeable proportion of businesses are reporting serious downturns in income (turnover) - particularly those "non-essential" businesses relying on dealing with large numbers of people every day.

Superannuation figures are looking pretty sick at present, and numerous people are drawing early on their Super to survive. Superannuation returns will eventually recover, but it's going to be a hard slog.

 

In every recession, a modest percentage of people have to "downsize" and get rid of "unnecessary toys". I don't see this period ahead being any different, and it's likely there will be a few bargains in used and unwanted aircraft.

[mnewbery]

Anyone remember all th abandoned toys outside Longreach after the mining construction downturn?

[Flying Binghi]

Hmmm... if somebody were trying to scare somebody into selling cheap they’d be talking up the doom..?

 

I’d wait a couple of weeks before getting to worried about things. Listening to the Ben Shapiro show on YouTube this morning he mentioned that testing suggests over 40% of New Yorkers have had, or have, the ChiCom virus. If this is correct then hysteria should abate and a more pragmatic mindset will get things going again.

 

 

 

 

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[jackc]

Hmmm... if somebody were trying to scare somebody into selling cheap they’d be talking up the doom..?

 

I’d wait a couple of weeks before getting to worried about things. Listening to the Ben Shapiro show on YouTube this morning he mentioned that testing suggests over 40% of New Yorkers have had, or have, the ChiCom virus. If this is correct then hysteria should abate and a more pragmatic mindset will get things going again.

 

 

 

 

.

I just bought an aircraft 4 weeks ago, so what’s to worry about? I made a decision and this Virus is not going to be here for ever. Sure, I hope my flying school weathers the storm and I can continue training. IF this Virus destroys the flying schools and I can t train:-( Guess what? I have good friend in the far west Qld with an airstrip! I will trailer my aircraft out there and ’log’ hours with no instructor:-). Who’s watching!!!

[Flying Binghi]

I just bought an aircraft 4 weeks ago, so what’s to worry about? I made a decision and this Virus is not going to be here for ever. Sure, I hope my flying school weathers the storm and I can continue training. IF this Virus destroys the flying schools and I can t train:-( Guess what? I have good friend in the far west Qld with an airstrip! I will trailer my aircraft out there and ’log’ hours with no instructor:-). Who’s watching!!!

 

Aerial livestock inspection is a farm job. Looks like yer just got yer self an unpaid job..?

 

 

 

 

 

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[spacesailor]

Can I tag alo g too ,

spacesailor

[jackc]

O

Can I tag alo g too ,

spacesailor

Of course you can:-). We are all one big happy ’family’ here:-)

[jetjr]

I just bought an aircraft 4 weeks ago, so what’s to worry about? I made a decision and this Virus is not going to be here for ever. Sure, I hope my flying school weathers the storm and I can continue training. IF this Virus destroys the flying schools and I can t train:-( Guess what? I have good friend in the far west Qld with an airstrip! I will trailer my aircraft out there and ’log’ hours with no instructor:-). Who’s watching!!!

 

Now youve declared on the web probably CASA and RAA

[kgwilson]

Hmmm... if somebody were trying to scare somebody into selling cheap they’d be talking up the doom..?

 

I’d wait a couple of weeks before getting to worried about things. Listening to the Ben Shapiro show on YouTube this morning he mentioned that testing suggests over 40% of New Yorkers have had, or have, the ChiCom virus. If this is correct then hysteria should abate and a more pragmatic mindset will get things going again.

Exactly the sort of BS I expect from the ultra Right Wing conservative political commentary. New York State has 19.44 million people and as of yesterday just over 149,400 confirmed cases of Covid-19 which is 0.77% of the population. 40% is 7.8 million & so far world wide there are around 1.52 million cases.